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Using the new products margin to predict the industry-level impact of trade reform

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  • Kehoe, Timothy J.
  • Rossbach, Jack
  • Ruhl, Kim J.

Abstract

This paper develops a methodology for predicting the impact of trade liberalization on exports by industry (3-digit ISIC) based on the pre-liberalization distribution of exports by product (5-digit SITC). We evaluate the ability of our methodology to account for the industry-level variation in export growth by using our model to “predict” the growth in industry trade from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). We show that our method performs significantly better than the applied general equilibrium models originally used for the policy evaluation of NAFTA. We find that the most important products in our analysis are not the ones with zero pre-liberalization trade, but those with positive, yet small amounts of pre-liberalization trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Kehoe, Timothy J. & Rossbach, Jack & Ruhl, Kim J., 2015. "Using the new products margin to predict the industry-level impact of trade reform," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 289-297.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:96:y:2015:i:2:p:289-297
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2015.03.004
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    Cited by:

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    2. Steinberg, Joseph B., 2019. "Brexit and the macroeconomic impact of trade policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 175-195.
    3. Rodrigo Adão & Costas Arkolakis & Sharat Ganapati, 2020. "Aggregate Implications of Firm Heterogeneity: A Nonparametric Analysis of Monopolistic Competition Trade Models," Working Papers 2020-161, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    4. Chingunjav Amarsanaa & Yoshinori Kurokawa, 2021. "The Extensive Margin of International Trade in a Transition Economy: The Case of Mongolia," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(4), pages 648-673, December.
    5. Rod Falvey & Neil Foster-McGregor, 2022. "The breadth of preferential trade agreements and the margins of exports," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 158(1), pages 181-251, February.
    6. Anson Soderbery, 2021. "Trade restrictiveness indexes and welfare: A structural approach," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(3), pages 1018-1045, November.
    7. French, Scott & Zylkin, Tom, 2024. "The effects of free trade agreements on product-level trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    8. Zhe Chen & Yoshinori Kurokawa, 2023. "The Value Added-Exports Puzzle and Global Value Chains," Tsukuba Economics Working Papers 2023-001, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Tsukuba.
    9. Timothy J. Kehoe & Pau S. Pujolas & Jack Rossbach, 2018. "Improving the Analysis of Trade Policy," Economic Policy Paper 18-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    10. Delahaye, Elliot & Milot, Catherine, 2020. "Measuring the UK Economy’s Armington Elasticities," Conference papers 333170, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    11. Carter Mix, 2023. "The Dynamic Effects Of Multilateral Trade Policy With Export Churning," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(2), pages 653-689, May.
    12. Cavallari, Lilia & D'Addona, Stefano, 2017. "Output stabilization in fixed and floating regimes: Does trade of new products matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 365-383.
    13. Arjad Abbas Khosa & Yoshinori Kurokawa & Zhengfei Yu, 2021. "Impact of Trade on Industry-Level Output," Tsukuba Economics Working Papers 2021-003, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Tsukuba.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade liberalization; Industry; Product;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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