IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jas/jasssj/2016-55-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Empirically Grounded Model of Green Electricity Adoption in Germany: Calibration, Validation and Insights into Patterns of Diffusion

Author

Abstract

Spatially explicit agent-based models (ABM) of innovation diffusion have experienced growing attention over the last few years. The ABM presented in this paper investigates the adoption of green electricity tariffs by German households. The model represents empirically characterised household types as agent types which differ in their decision preferences regarding green electricity and other psychological properties. Agent populations are initialised based on spatially explicit socio demographic data describing the sociological lifestyles found in Germany. For model calibration and validation we use historical data on the German green electricity market including a rich dataset of spatially explicit customer data of one of the major providers of green electricity. In order to assess the similarity of the simulation results to historical observations we introduce two validation measures which capture different aspects of the green electricity diffusion. One measure is based on the residuals of spatially-aggregated time series of model indicators and the other measure considers a temporally aggregated but spatially disaggregated indicator of spatial spread. Finally, we demonstrate the descriptive richness of the model by investigating simulation outputs of the calibrated model in more detail. In particular, the results provide insights into the dynamics of the spatial and lifestyle heterogeneity “underneath†the diffusion curve of green electricity in Germany.

Suggested Citation

  • Friedrich Krebs, 2017. "An Empirically Grounded Model of Green Electricity Adoption in Germany: Calibration, Validation and Insights into Patterns of Diffusion," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 20(2), pages 1-10.
    • Handle: RePEc:jas:jasssj:2016-55-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.jasss.org/20/2/10/10.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ajzen, Icek, 1991. "The theory of planned behavior," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 179-211, December.
    2. Jan Buurma & Wil Hennen & Tim Verwaart, 2017. "How Social Unrest Started Innovations in a Food Supply Chain," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 20(1), pages 1-8.
    3. Varun Rai & Adam Douglas Henry, 2016. "Agent-based modelling of consumer energy choices," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(6), pages 556-562, June.
    4. Grimm, Volker & Berger, Uta & DeAngelis, Donald L. & Polhill, J. Gary & Giske, Jarl & Railsback, Steven F., 2010. "The ODD protocol: A review and first update," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(23), pages 2760-2768.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mittal, Anuj & Krejci, Caroline C. & Dorneich, Michael C., 2019. "An agent-based approach to designing residential renewable energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1008-1020.
    2. Sebastian Hoffmann & Fabian Adelt & Johannes Weyer, 2020. "Modelling End-User Behavior and Behavioral Change in Smart Grids. An Application of the Model of Frame Selection," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-26, December.
    3. Georg Holtz & Christian Schnülle & Malcolm Yadack & Jonas Friege & Thorben Jensen & Pablo Thier & Peter Viebahn & Émile J. L. Chappin, 2020. "Using Agent-Based Models to Generate Transformation Knowledge for the German Energiewende—Potentials and Challenges Derived from Four Case Studies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-26, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nuñez-Jimenez, Alejandro & Mehta, Prakhar & Griego, Danielle, 2023. "Let it grow: How community solar policy can increase PV adoption in cities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    2. Fouladvand, Javanshir, 2022. "Behavioural attributes towards collective energy security in thermal energy communities: Environmental-friendly behaviour matters," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PB).
    3. Anderson, Kyle & Lee, SangHyun, 2016. "An empirically grounded model for simulating normative energy use feedback interventions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 272-282.
    4. Giacomo Ravaioli & Tiago Domingos & Ricardo F. M. Teixeira, 2023. "A Framework for Data-Driven Agent-Based Modelling of Agricultural Land Use," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-17, March.
    5. Noeldeke, Beatrice & Winter, Etti & Ntawuhiganayo, Elisée Bahati, 2022. "Representing human decision-making in agent-based simulation models: Agroforestry adoption in rural Rwanda," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    6. Georg Holtz & Christian Schnülle & Malcolm Yadack & Jonas Friege & Thorben Jensen & Pablo Thier & Peter Viebahn & Émile J. L. Chappin, 2020. "Using Agent-Based Models to Generate Transformation Knowledge for the German Energiewende—Potentials and Challenges Derived from Four Case Studies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-26, November.
    7. Mittal, Anuj & Krejci, Caroline C. & Dorneich, Michael C., 2019. "An agent-based approach to designing residential renewable energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1008-1020.
    8. Bourceret, Amélie & Amblard, Laurence & Mathias, Jean-Denis, 2022. "Adapting the governance of social–ecological systems to behavioural dynamics: An agent-based model for water quality management using the theory of planned behaviour," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    9. Tom Warnke & Oliver Reinhardt & Anna Klabunde & Frans Willekens & Adelinde M. Uhrmacher, 2017. "Modelling and simulating decision processes of linked lives: An approach based on concurrent processes and stochastic race," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 71(0), pages 69-83, October.
    10. Furkan Gursoy & Bertan Badur, 2021. "An Agent-Based Modelling Approach to Brain Drain," Papers 2103.03234, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    11. Maria Andersson & Ola Eriksson & Chris Von Borgstede, 2012. "The Effects of Environmental Management Systems on Source Separation in the Work and Home Settings," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 4(6), pages 1-17, June.
    12. Tran Huy Phuong & Thanh Trung Hieu, 2015. "Predictors of Entrepreneurial Intentions of Undergraduate Students in Vietnam: An Empirical Study," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 5(8), pages 46-55, August.
    13. Peng Cheng & Zhe Ouyang & Yang Liu, 0. "The effect of information overload on the intention of consumers to adopt electric vehicles," Transportation, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-20.
    14. Alsalem, Amani & Fry, Marie-Louise & Thaichon, Park, 2020. "To donate or to waste it: Understanding posthumous organ donation attitude," Australasian marketing journal, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 87-97.
    15. Benoît Lécureux & Adrien Bonnet & Ouassim Manout & Jaâfar Berrada & Louafi Bouzouina, 2022. "Acceptance of Shared Autonomous Vehicles: A Literature Review of stated choice experiments," Working Papers hal-03814947, HAL.
    16. Kristin Thomas & Evalill Nilsson & Karin Festin & Pontus Henriksson & Mats Lowén & Marie Löf & Margareta Kristenson, 2020. "Associations of Psychosocial Factors with Multiple Health Behaviors: A Population-Based Study of Middle-Aged Men and Women," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-17, February.
    17. Kamruzzaman, Md. & Baker, Douglas & Washington, Simon & Turrell, Gavin, 2013. "Residential dissonance and mode choice," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 12-28.
    18. Ficko, Andrej & Boncina, Andrej, 2013. "Probabilistic typology of management decision making in private forest properties," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 34-43.
    19. Muhammad Shahid Qureshi & Saadat Saeed & Syed Waleed Mehmood Wasti, 2016. "The impact of various entrepreneurial interventions during the business plan competition on the entrepreneur identity aspirations of participants," Journal of Global Entrepreneurship Research, Springer;UNESCO Chair in Entrepreneurship, vol. 6(1), pages 1-18, December.
    20. Tardy, Olivia & Lenglos, Christophe & Lai, Sandra & Berteaux, Dominique & Leighton, Patrick A., 2023. "Rabies transmission in the Arctic: An agent-based model reveals the effects of broad-scale movement strategies on contact risk between Arctic foxes," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 476(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jas:jasssj:2016-55-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Francesco Renzini (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.