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A dynamic programming approach to model the retirement behaviour of blue-collar workers in Sweden

Author

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  • Anders Karlstrom

    (Systems Analysis and Economics, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden)

  • Marten Palme

    (Department of Economics, Stockholm University, Sweden)

  • Ingemar Svensson

    (National Social Insurance Board, Stockholm, Sweden)

Abstract

This paper presents an empirical analysis of how Sweden's public old age pension system affects the retirement decision. We focus on male blue-collar workers whose dominant income source as retired comes from the public old age pension system. We develop a dynamic programming model using the rules for the public pension system. In addition to the effects of economic incentives through the pension systems the DP model also measures the effect of the mandatory retirement age of 65-which applies to most parts of Sweden's labour market-on retirement behaviour. The estimated model fits within-sample retirement patterns remarkably well. A simulation of a hypothetical reform, where all retirement incentives in the pension schemes are delayed by three years, shows that economic incentives affect retirement behaviour. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Anders Karlstrom & Marten Palme & Ingemar Svensson, 2004. "A dynamic programming approach to model the retirement behaviour of blue-collar workers in Sweden," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(6), pages 795-807.
    • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:19:y:2004:i:6:p:795-807
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.798
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eric French, 2005. "The Effects of Health, Wealth, and Wages on Labour Supply and Retirement Behaviour," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(2), pages 395-427.
    2. Karlström, Anders & Palme, Mårten & Svensson, Ingemar, 2002. "The Timing of Retirement and Social Security Reforms: Measuring Individual Welfare Changes," Arbetsrapport 2002:8, Institute for Futures Studies.
    3. Mårten Palme & Ingemar Svensson, 2004. "Income Security Programs and Retirement in Sweden," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Micro-Estimation, pages 579-642, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. John Rust & Christopher Phelan, 1997. "How Social Security and Medicare Affect Retirement Behavior in a World of Incomplete Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(4), pages 781-832, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Victor Aguirregabiria, 2006. "Another Look at the Identification of Dynamic Discrete Decision Processes: With an Application to Retirement Behavior," 2006 Meeting Papers 169, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Jonas Kolsrud & Camille Landais & Daniel Reck & Johannes Spinnewijn, 2024. "Retirement Consumption and Pension Design," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(1), pages 89-133, January.
    3. Aguirregabiria, Victor & Mira, Pedro, 2010. "Dynamic discrete choice structural models: A survey," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(1), pages 38-67, May.
    4. Noelia Bernal & Frederic Vermeulen, 2014. "The Impact of an Increase in the Legal Retirement Age on the Effective Retirement Age," De Economist, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 115-145, June.
    5. Victoria Prowse & Peter Haan & Arne Uhlendorff, 2008. "Employment effects of welfare reforms - Evidence from a dynamic structural life-cycle model," Economics Series Working Papers 391, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    6. Peter Haan & Victoria Prowse, 2010. "A structural approach to estimating the effect of taxation on the labour market dynamics of older workers," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 13(3), pages 99-125, October.
    7. Dlugosz, Stephan & Stephan, Gesine & Wilke, Ralf A., 2009. "Fixing the leak: Unemployment incidence before and after the 2006 reform of unemployment benefits in Germany," IAB-Discussion Paper 200925, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    8. Bernal Lobato, N., 2014. "Essays in applied microeconomics," Other publications TiSEM 9b638b3d-2f83-452a-b2c8-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    9. Iskhakov, Fedor, 2008. "Dynamic Programming Model of Health and Retirement," Memorandum 03/2008, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    10. Zhiyang Jia, 2005. "Retirement Behavior of Working Couples in Norway. A Dynamic Programming Approach," Discussion Papers 405, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    11. Benjamin Bittschi & Thomas Horvath & Helmut Mahringer & Christine Mayrhuber & Martin Spielauer & Philipp Warum, 2024. "Assessing the Labour Supply Effect of Harmonising Regular Retirement Age in Austria," WIFO Working Papers 673, WIFO.
    12. Anders Stenberg & Xavier Luna & Olle Westerlund, 2012. "Can adult education delay retirement from the labour market?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(2), pages 677-696, January.
    13. Vare, Minna, 2005. "Timing of the Early Retirement Decisions of Farming Couples," 94th Seminar, April 9-10, 2005, Ashford, UK 24412, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    14. He, Lin & Liang, Zongxia & Song, Yilun & Ye, Qi, 2022. "Optimal asset allocation, consumption and retirement time with the variation in habitual persistence," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 188-202.
    15. Lin He & Zongxia Liang & Yilun Song & Qi Ye, 2021. "Optimal Retirement Time and Consumption with the Variation in Habitual Persistence," Papers 2103.16800, arXiv.org.
    16. Tibor Hanappi, 2012. "Retirement Behaviour in Austria: Incentive Effects on Old-Age Labor Supply," NRN working papers 2012-13, The Austrian Center for Labor Economics and the Analysis of the Welfare State, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    17. Christine Mayrhuber & Ulrike Huemer & Thomas Horvath & Stefan Schiman-Vukan, 2016. "Makroökonomische Effekte einer früheren Anhebung des gesetzlichen Pensionsalters für Frauen in Österreich," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58803.
    18. Songül Tolan, 2017. "The Effect of Partial Retirement on Labor Supply, Public Balances and the Income Distribution: Evidence from a Structural Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1679, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    19. Ulrike Famira-Mühlberger & Ulrike Huemer & Christine Mayrhuber, 2015. "Die Beschäftigungsquote Älterer im europäischen Vergleich," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58532.
    20. Urena Serulle, Nayel & Cirillo, Cinzia, 2017. "The optimal time to evacuate: A behavioral dynamic model on Louisiana resident data," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 447-463.
    21. Endler, Johannes & Geyer, Johannes, 2017. "The Interaction of Pension System and Unemployment Insurance - Evidence from two Reforms," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168279, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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