IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ire/issued/v24n032021p405-467.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Market The (De)merits of using Integral Transforms in Predicting Structural Break Points

Author

Listed:
  • Katlego Kola

    (WITS University)

  • Tumellano Sebehela

    (WITS University)

Abstract

The structural break points of returns and volatility are generally illustrated by using uni-and-multivariate time series models. Despite the elegance of uni-and-multivariate models, the interchangeability of different structural break points is not well accounted for in those models. This study uses integral transforms (Fourier and Laplace) to illustrate the interchangeability of structural break points of indices. Furthermore, structural break points are validated with commonly used unit root structural break tests [(i) augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), (ii) ADF-generalized least squares (GLS), Phillips Perron (PP) 1988 and Zivot-Andrews (ZA) 1992 tests]. The results illustrate persistent interchangeability and interconnectedness patterns of structural break points throughout the time series. Moreover, the structural break points tests confirm the findings of the integral transforms.

Suggested Citation

  • Katlego Kola & Tumellano Sebehela, 2021. "Market The (De)merits of using Integral Transforms in Predicting Structural Break Points," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 24(3), pages 405-467.
  • Handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:24:n:03:2021:p:405-467
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.gssinst.org/irer/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/v24-no3-4_The-Demerits-of-using-Integral-Transforms-in-Predicting-Structural-Break-Points-1-1.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
    2. Maghyereh, Aktham I. & Awartani, Basel, 2016. "Dynamic transmissions between Sukuk and bond markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 246-261.
    3. Yin, Anwen, 2019. "Out-of-sample equity premium prediction in the presence of structural breaks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    4. Woon Weng WONG & Wejendra Reddy, 2018. "Evaluation of Australian REIT Performance and the Impact of Interest Rates and Leverage," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 21(1), pages 41-70.
    5. Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labour Productivity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 117-128, Fall.
    6. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    7. Okunev, John & Wilson, Patrick & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2000. "The Causal Relationship between Real Estate and Stock Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 251-261, November.
    8. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pick, Andreas & Pranovich, Mikhail, 2013. "Optimal forecasts in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 134-152.
    9. Gianluca Marcato & Charles Ward, 2007. "Back from Beyond the Bid–Ask Spread: Estimating Liquidity in International Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 35(4), pages 599-622, December.
    10. Zhou, Jian, 2016. "A high-frequency analysis of the interactions between REIT return and volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 102-108.
    11. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    12. Shalini, Velappan & Prasanna, Krishna, 2016. "Impact of the financial crisis on Indian commodity markets: Structural breaks and volatility dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 40-57.
    13. Mehmet Akbulut & Su Han Chan & Mariya Letdin, 2015. "Calendar Anomalies: Do REITs Behave Like Stocks?," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 18(2), pages 177-215.
    14. Holmes, Mark J., 2011. "Threshold cointegration and the short-run dynamics of twin deficit behaviour," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 271-277, September.
    15. Deepak Nayyar, 2016. "BRICS, developing countries and global governance," Third World Quarterly, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(4), pages 575-591, April.
    16. Ngai Hang Chan & Chun Yip Yau & Rong-Mao Zhang, 2014. "Group LASSO for Structural Break Time Series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 109(506), pages 590-599, June.
    17. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    18. Zhongjun Qu & Pierre Perron, 2007. "Estimating and Testing Structural Changes in Multivariate Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(2), pages 459-502, March.
    19. Chris Brooks & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2001. "Linkages between property asset returns and interest rates: evidence for the UK," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(6), pages 711-719.
    20. Mensi, Walid & Boubaker, Ferihane Zaraa & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2018. "Dynamic volatility spillovers and connectedness between global, regional, and GIPSI stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 230-238.
    21. Kim Liow & Zhiwei Chen & Jingran Liu, 2011. "Multiple Regimes and Volatility Transmission in Securitized Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 295-328, April.
    22. Davis, Richard A. & Lee, Thomas C.M. & Rodriguez-Yam, Gabriel A., 2006. "Structural Break Estimation for Nonstationary Time Series Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 223-239, March.
    23. Jin Feng & Wenxia Zhou & Shuoyu Li & Mengyi Li, 2019. "Obstacles open the door — Negative shocks can motivate individuals to focus on opportunities," Frontiers of Business Research in China, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 1-17, December.
    24. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    25. Tanweer Akram & Anupam Das, 2019. "The Long-Run Determinants of Indian Government Bond Yields," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 36(1), pages 168-205, March.
    26. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Critical values for multiple structural change tests," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 72-78, June.
    27. Ludwig Straub & Iván Werning, 2020. "Positive Long-Run Capital Taxation: Chamley-Judd Revisited," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(1), pages 86-119, January.
    28. Güloğlu, Bülent & Kaya, Pınar & Aydemir, Resul, 2016. "Volatility transmission among Latin American stock markets under structural breaks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 330-340.
    29. Skintzi, Vasiliki D. & Refenes, Apostolos N., 2006. "Volatility spillovers and dynamic correlation in European bond markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 23-40, February.
    30. Sulaiman T. Al-Abduljader, 2019. "Interdependence of Securitized Real Estate in Frontier Markets," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 22(1), pages 83-108.
    31. Marcato, Gianluca & Sebehela, Tumellano & Campani, Carlos Heitor, 2018. "Volatility smiles when information is lagged in prices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 151-165.
    32. Dennis R. Capozza & Ryan D. Israelsen, 2007. "Predictability in Equilibrium: The Price Dynamics of Real Estate Investment Trusts," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 35(4), pages 541-567, December.
    33. Walter Enders & Matthew T. Holt, 2012. "Sharp Breaks or Smooth Shifts? an Investigation of the Evolution of Primary Commodity Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(3), pages 659-673.
    34. repec:ire:issued:v:22:n:01:2019:p:85-110 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fu, Zhonghao & Hong, Yongmiao, 2019. "A model-free consistent test for structural change in regression possibly with endogeneity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 211(1), pages 206-242.
    2. Rossi, Barbara, 2013. "Advances in Forecasting under Instability," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1203-1324, Elsevier.
    3. , & Stein, Tobias, 2021. "Equity premium predictability over the business cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 16357, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Alessandro Casini & Pierre Perron, 2018. "Structural Breaks in Time Series," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2019-02, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    5. Yaein Baek, 2018. "Estimation of a Structural Break Point in Linear Regression Models," Papers 1811.03720, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2020.
    6. P Muthuramu & T Uma Maheswari, 2019. "Tests for Structural Breaks in Time Series Analysis: A Review of Recent Development," Shanlax International Journal of Economics, Shanlax Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 66-79, September.
    7. Vicente Esteve, 2004. "Política fiscal y productividad del trabajo en la economía española: un análisis de series temporales," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, June.
    8. Jouini, Jamel & Boutahar, Mohamed, 2005. "Evidence on structural changes in U.S. time series," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 391-422, May.
    9. Yin, Anwen, 2019. "Out-of-sample equity premium prediction in the presence of structural breaks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    10. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2014. "Causality and contagion in EMU sovereign debt markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 12-27.
    11. Pierre Perron & Yohei Yamamoto, 2022. "Structural change tests under heteroskedasticity: Joint estimation versus two‐steps methods," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 389-411, May.
    12. Abhimanyu Gupta & Myung Hwan Seo, 2023. "Robust Inference on Infinite and Growing Dimensional Time‐Series Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(4), pages 1333-1361, July.
    13. Devi, P. Indira & Shanmugam, K.R. & Jayasree, M.G., 2012. "Compensating Wages for Occupational Risks of Farm Workers in India," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 67(2), pages 1-12.
    14. Boldea, Otilia & Hall, Alastair R., 2013. "Estimation and inference in unstable nonlinear least squares models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 172(1), pages 158-167.
    15. Hervé Le Bihan, 2004. "Tests de ruptures : une application au PIB tendanciel français," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 163(2), pages 133-154.
    16. Atanu Ghoshray & Issam Malki & Javier Ordóñez, 2022. "On the long-run dynamics of income and wealth inequality," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 375-408, February.
    17. Perron, Pierre, 2020. "L'estimation de modèles avec changements structurels multiples," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 96(4), pages 789-837, Décembre.
    18. Pierre Perron & Yohei Yamamoto, 2016. "On the Usefulness or Lack Thereof of Optimality Criteria for Structural Change Tests," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(5), pages 782-844, May.
    19. Kuan, Chung-Ming, 1998. "Tests for changes in models with a polynomial trend," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 75-91, May.
    20. Alaa Abi Morshed & Elena Andreou & Otilia Boldea, 2018. "Structural Break Tests Robust to Regression Misspecification," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-39, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Integral transforms; structural breaks;

    JEL classification:

    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:24:n:03:2021:p:405-467. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: IRER Graduate Assistant/Webmaster (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.gssinst.org/gssinst/index.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.