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Modelling Households’ Savings and Dwellings Investment – A Portfolio Choice Approach

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  • Gábor Vadas

    (Model Development Unit, Conjunctural Assessment and Projections Division, Economics Department, National Bank of Hungary, H-1850 Budapest V: Szabadság tér 8/9)

Abstract

A house is generally considered as a ‘roof over one’s head’, however, housing can be regarded as an investment or asset. Our paper focuses on this function of dwellings and develops a stochastic portfolio choice model for the housing market, which is easy to incorporate into medium and large-scale macro models. Theoretical results suggest that house prices move in line with households’ income, although house prices have a higher variance than income does. On the other hand the positive correlation between the return on housing investment and consumption not only implies positive relationship between the portfolio share of housing investment and excess return but also renders the housing wealth inappropriate in consumption smoothing. We use UK data to test these theoretical implications of the model. In this case, empirical results strengthen the model framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Gábor Vadas, 2004. "Modelling Households’ Savings and Dwellings Investment – A Portfolio Choice Approach," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 7(1), pages 31-55.
    • Handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:07:n:01:2004:p:31-55
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    Cited by:

    1. Gergely Kiss & Gábor Vadas, 2005. "The Role of the Housing Market in Monetary Transmission," MNB Background Studies (discontinued) 2005/3, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    2. Vadas, Gábor & Kiss, Gergely, 2006. "A lakáspiac szerepe a monetáris transzmisszióban [The role of the housing market in monetary transmission]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 408-427.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    households’ behaviour; housing investment; saving; portfolio decision; house price;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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