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Optimal Traveler Responses to Stochastic Delays in Public Transport

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  • Mark G. Lijesen

    (VU University Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands)

Abstract

We model optimal traveler responses to delays in the case of discrete departure time choice. We use both real and simulated data to illustrate our results, showing that passengers almost entirely offset their schedule delay costs increase, even in very unreliable systems. Our results suggest that, if the distribution of delays is sufficiently narrow, travelers fully offset the scheduling costs caused by delays. If the distribution of delays is wider, the amount by which schedule delay costs are offset decreases. This implies that, all else equal, more welfare can be gained by preventing incidental long delays than by reducing the average delay.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark G. Lijesen, 2014. "Optimal Traveler Responses to Stochastic Delays in Public Transport," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(2), pages 256-264, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ortrsc:v:48:y:2014:i:2:p:256-264
    DOI: 10.1287/trsc.2013.0465
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Paulsen, Mads & Rasmussen, Thomas Kjær & Nielsen, Otto Anker, 2021. "Impacts of real-time information levels in public transport: A large-scale case study using an adaptive passenger path choice model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 155-182.
    2. Paul Koster & Eric Pels & Erik Verhoef, 2016. "The User Costs of Air Travel Delay Variability," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(1), pages 120-131, February.
    3. Eva König, 2020. "A review on railway delay management," Public Transport, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 335-361, June.

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