IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/oropre/v68y2020i1p35-52.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the Inefficiency of Forward Markets in Leader–Follower Competition

Author

Listed:
  • Desmond Cai

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California 91125)

  • Anish Agarwal

    (Department of Computer Science, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California 91125)

  • Adam Wierman

    (Department of Computing and Mathematical Sciences Department, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California 91125)

Abstract

Motivated by electricity markets, this paper studies the impact of forward contracting in situations where firms have capacity constraints and heterogeneous production lead times. We consider a model with two types of firms—leaders and followers—that choose production at two different times. Followers choose productions in the second stage but can sell forward contracts in the first stage. Our main result is an explicit characterization of the equilibrium outcomes. Classic results on forward contracting suggest that it can mitigate market power in simple settings; however, the results in this paper show that the impact of forward markets in this setting is delicate—forward contracting can enhance or mitigate market power. In particular, our results show that leader–follower interactions created by heterogeneous production lead times may cause forward markets to be inefficient, even when there are a large number of followers. In fact, symmetric equilibria do not necessarily exist due to differences in market power among the leaders and followers.

Suggested Citation

  • Desmond Cai & Anish Agarwal & Adam Wierman, 2020. "On the Inefficiency of Forward Markets in Leader–Follower Competition," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 68(1), pages 35-52, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:68:y:2020:i:1:p:35-52
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.2019.1863
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2019.1863
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/opre.2019.1863?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Le Coq, Chloe & Orzen, Henrik, 2006. "Do forward markets enhance competition?: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 415-431, November.
    2. Hanif D. Sherali, 1984. "A Multiple Leader Stackelberg Model and Analysis," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 32(2), pages 390-404, April.
    3. Paul L. Joskow, 2008. "Lessons Learned From Electricity Market Liberalization," The Energy Journal, , vol. 29(2_suppl), pages 9-42, December.
    4. Hanif D. Sherali & Allen L. Soyster & Frederic H. Murphy, 1983. "Stackelberg-Nash-Cournot Equilibria: Characterizations and Computations," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 31(2), pages 253-276, April.
    5. Victor DeMiguel & Huifu Xu, 2009. "A Stochastic Multiple-Leader Stackelberg Model: Analysis, Computation, and Application," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 57(5), pages 1220-1235, October.
    6. James B. Bushnell & Erin T. Mansur & Celeste Saravia, 2008. "Vertical Arrangements, Market Structure, and Competition: An Analysis of Restructured US Electricity Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 237-266, March.
    7. Joshua S. Gans & Danny Price & Kim Woods, 1998. "Contracts and Electricity Pool Prices," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 23(1), pages 83-96, June.
    8. WEI, Jing-Yuan & SMEERS, Yves, 1999. "Spatial oligopolistic electricity models with Cournot generators and regulated transmission prices," LIDAM Reprints CORE 1454, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    9. Yao, Jian & Oren, Shmuel S. & Adler, Ilan, 2007. "Two-settlement electricity markets with price caps and Cournot generation firms," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 181(3), pages 1279-1296, September.
    10. Paul Twomey & Richard Green & Karsten Neuhoff & David Newbery, 2005. "A Review of the Monitoring of Market Power: The Possible Roles of TSOs in Monitoring for Market Power Issues in Congested Transmission Systems," Working Papers 0502, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
    11. Frank Wolak, 2000. "An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Hedge Contracts on Bidding Behavior in a Competitive Electricity Market," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 1-39.
    12. Green, Richard J & Newbery, David M, 1992. "Competition in the British Electricity Spot Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 929-953, October.
    13. repec:bla:jindec:v:47:y:1999:i:1:p:107-24 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Rajnish Kamat & Shmuel Oren, 2004. "Two-settlement Systems for Electricity Markets under Network Uncertainty and Market Power," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 5-37, January.
    15. David M. Newbery, 1998. "Competition, Contracts, and Entry in the Electricity Spot Market," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 29(4), pages 726-749, Winter.
    16. Liski, Matti & Montero, Juan-Pablo, 2006. "Forward trading and collusion in oligopoly," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 131(1), pages 212-230, November.
    17. Severin Borenstein & James Bushnell, 1999. "An Empirical Analysis of the Potential for Market Power in California’s Electricity Industry," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(3), pages 285-323, September.
    18. Richard Green, 1999. "The Electricity Contract Market in England and Wales," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 107-124, March.
    19. Nie, Pu-yan & Chen, You-hua, 2012. "Duopoly competitions with capacity constrained input," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1715-1721.
    20. Anderson, Ronald W & Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1980. "Hedging and Joint Production: Theory and Illustrations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 487-498, May.
    21. De Wolf, D. & Smeers, Y., 1997. "A stochastic version of a Stackelberg-Nash-Cournot equilibrium model," LIDAM Reprints CORE 1257, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    22. Daniel De Wolf & Yves Smeers, 1997. "A Stochastic Version of a Stackelberg-Nash-Cournot Equilibrium Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(2), pages 190-197, February.
    23. Catherine D. Wolfram, 1999. "Measuring Duopoly Power in the British Electricity Spot Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 805-826, September.
    24. Oren, Shmuel S., 2005. "Generation Adequacy via Call Options Obligations: Safe Passage to the Promised Land," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(9), pages 28-42, November.
    25. MURPHY, Frédéric & SMEERS, Yves, 2010. "On the impact of forward markets on investments in oligopolistic markets with reference to electricity," LIDAM Reprints CORE 2216, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    26. B. S. Yamey, 1951. "An Investigation of Hedging on an Organised Produce Exchange1," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 19(3), pages 305-319, September.
    27. Jong-Shi Pang & Masao Fukushima, 2005. "Quasi-variational inequalities, generalized Nash equilibria, and multi-leader-follower games," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 21-56, January.
    28. Blaise Allaz & Jean-Luc Vila, 1993. "Cournot Competition, Forward Markets and Efficiency," Post-Print hal-00511806, HAL.
    29. Frederic Murphy & Yves Smeers, 2010. "On the Impact of Forward Markets on Investments in Oligopolistic Markets with Reference to Electricity," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(3), pages 515-528, June.
    30. Lester G. Telser, 1955. "Safety First and Hedging," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 23(1), pages 1-16.
    31. Wei Jing-Yuan & Yves Smeers, 1999. "Spatial Oligopolistic Electricity Models with Cournot Generators and Regulated Transmission Prices," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 47(1), pages 102-112, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frederic Murphy & Yves Smeers, 2010. "On the Impact of Forward Markets on Investments in Oligopolistic Markets with Reference to Electricity," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(3), pages 515-528, June.
    2. Dressler, Luisa, 2016. "Support schemes for renewable electricity in the European Union: Producer strategies and competition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 186-196.
    3. David P. Brown & Andrew Eckert, 2018. "Analyzing the Impact of Electricity Market Structure Changes and Mergers: The Importance of Forward Commitments," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 52(1), pages 101-137, February.
    4. Dali Zhang & Huifu Xu & Yue Wu, 2010. "A two stage stochastic equilibrium model for electricity markets with two way contracts," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 71(1), pages 1-45, February.
    5. Holmberg, Pär & Willems, Bert, 2015. "Relaxing competition through speculation: Committing to a negative supply slope," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 159(PA), pages 236-266.
    6. Guy Meunier, 2011. "Imperfect Competition and Long-term Contracts in Electricity Markets: Some Lessons from Theoretical Models," Chapters, in: Jean-Michel Glachant & Dominique Finon & Adrien de Hauteclocque (ed.), Competition, Contracts and Electricity Markets, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Brown, David P. & Eckert, Andrew & Silveira, Douglas, 2023. "Screening for collusion in wholesale electricity markets: A literature review," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    8. Andreas Ehrenmann & Karsten Neuhoff, 2009. "A Comparison of Electricity Market Designs in Networks," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 57(2), pages 274-286, April.
    9. Carlos Suarez, 2021. "Private management and strategic bidding behavior in electricity markets: Evidence from Colombia," IREA Working Papers 202102, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jan 2021.
    10. Fabra, Natalia & de Frutos, Maria-Angeles, 2008. "On the Impact of Forward Contract Obligations in Multi-Unit Auctions," CEPR Discussion Papers 6756, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Suarez, Carlos, 2022. "Private management and strategic bidding behavior in electricity markets: Evidence from Colombia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    12. Serra, Pablo, 2013. "Contract market power and its impact on the efficiency of the electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 653-662.
    13. van Eijkel, Remco & Kuper, Gerard H. & Moraga-González, José L., 2016. "Do firms sell forward for strategic reasons? An application to the wholesale market for natural gas," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-35.
    14. Holmberg, Pär & Newbery, David, 2010. "The supply function equilibrium and its policy implications for wholesale electricity auctions," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 209-226, December.
    15. James Bushnell, 2007. "Oligopoly equilibria in electricity contract markets," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 225-245, December.
    16. David Pozo & Enzo Sauma & Javier Contreras, 2017. "Basic theoretical foundations and insights on bilevel models and their applications to power systems," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 254(1), pages 303-334, July.
    17. Jian Yao & Ilan Adler & Shmuel S. Oren, 2008. "Modeling and Computing Two-Settlement Oligopolistic Equilibrium in a Congested Electricity Network," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(1), pages 34-47, February.
    18. David P. Brown & David E. M. Sappington, 2023. "Load-Following Forward Contracts," The Energy Journal, , vol. 44(3), pages 187-222, May.
    19. Baldursson , Fridrik M. & von der Fehr, Nils-Henrik, 2007. "Vertical Integration and Long-Term Contracts in Risky Markets," Memorandum 01/2007, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    20. Erik Lundin, 2021. "Market Power and Joint Ownership: Evidence from Nuclear Plants in Sweden," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(3), pages 485-536, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:68:y:2020:i:1:p:35-52. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.