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Simple Policies for Dynamic Pricing with Imperfect Forecasts

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  • Yiwei Chen

    (School of Business, Renmin University of China, 100872 Beijing, China)

  • Vivek F. Farias

    (Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139)

Abstract

We consider the “classical” single-product dynamic pricing problem allowing the “scale” of demand intensity to be modulated by an exogenous “market size” stochastic process. This is a natural model of dynamically changing market conditions. We show that for a broad family of Gaussian market-size processes, simple dynamic pricing rules that are essentially agnostic to the specification of this market-size process perform provably well. The pricing policies we develop are shown to compensate for forecast imperfections (or a lack of forecast information altogether) by frequent reoptimization and reestimation of the “instantaneous” market size.

Suggested Citation

  • Yiwei Chen & Vivek F. Farias, 2013. "Simple Policies for Dynamic Pricing with Imperfect Forecasts," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 61(3), pages 612-624, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:61:y:2013:i:3:p:612-624
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.2013.1166
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Qi (George) Chen & Stefanus Jasin & Izak Duenyas, 2021. "Technical Note—Joint Learning and Optimization of Multi-Product Pricing with Finite Resource Capacity and Unknown Demand Parameters," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 69(2), pages 560-573, March.
    2. Ilan Lobel, 2021. "Revenue Management and the Rise of the Algorithmic Economy," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(9), pages 5389-5398, September.
    3. Stefanus Jasin, 2014. "Reoptimization and Self-Adjusting Price Control for Network Revenue Management," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 62(5), pages 1168-1178, October.
    4. Will Ma & David Simchi-Levi, 2020. "Algorithms for Online Matching, Assortment, and Pricing with Tight Weight-Dependent Competitive Ratios," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 68(6), pages 1787-1803, November.
    5. Régis Chenavaz & Corina Paraschiv & Gabriel Turinici, 2017. "Dynamic Pricing of New Products in Competitive Markets: A Mean-Field Game Approach," Working Papers hal-01592958, HAL.
    6. Huanan Zhang & Cong Shi & Chao Qin & Cheng Hua, 2016. "Stochastic regret minimization for revenue management problems with nonstationary demands," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 63(6), pages 433-448, September.
    7. Bren, Austin & Saghafian, Soroush, 2018. "Data-Driven Percentile Optimization for Multi-Class Queueing Systems with Model Ambiguity: Theory and Application," Working Paper Series rwp18-008, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    8. N. Bora Keskin & Assaf Zeevi, 2017. "Chasing Demand: Learning and Earning in a Changing Environment," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 42(2), pages 277-307, May.
    9. Omar Besbes & Denis Sauré, 2014. "Dynamic Pricing Strategies in the Presence of Demand Shifts," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 16(4), pages 513-528, October.
    10. Yiwei Chen & Cong Shi, 2019. "Joint Pricing and Inventory Management with Strategic Customers," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 67(6), pages 1610-1627, November.
    11. Ruben Geer & Arnoud V. Boer & Christopher Bayliss & Christine S. M. Currie & Andria Ellina & Malte Esders & Alwin Haensel & Xiao Lei & Kyle D. S. Maclean & Antonio Martinez-Sykora & Asbjørn Nilsen Ris, 2019. "Dynamic pricing and learning with competition: insights from the dynamic pricing challenge at the 2017 INFORMS RM & pricing conference," Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 18(3), pages 185-203, June.
    12. Régis Chenavaz & Corina Paraschiv & Gabriel Turinici, 2021. "Dynamic Pricing of New Products in Competitive Markets: A Mean-Field Game Approach," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 463-490, September.
    13. Gökgür, Burak & Karabatı, Selçuk, 2019. "Dynamic and targeted bundle pricing of two independently valued products," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 279(1), pages 184-198.
    14. Negin Golrezaei & Hamid Nazerzadeh & Paat Rusmevichientong, 2014. "Real-Time Optimization of Personalized Assortments," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(6), pages 1532-1551, June.
    15. Jianyu Xu & Yu-Xiang Wang, 2021. "Logarithmic Regret in Feature-based Dynamic Pricing," Papers 2102.10221, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
    16. Qi (George) Chen & Stefanus Jasin & Izak Duenyas, 2016. "Real-Time Dynamic Pricing with Minimal and Flexible Price Adjustment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(8), pages 2437-2455, August.
    17. Ruben van de Geer & Arnoud V. den Boer & Christopher Bayliss & Christine Currie & Andria Ellina & Malte Esders & Alwin Haensel & Xiao Lei & Kyle D. S. Maclean & Antonio Martinez-Sykora & Asbj{o}rn Nil, 2018. "Dynamic Pricing and Learning with Competition: Insights from the Dynamic Pricing Challenge at the 2017 INFORMS RM & Pricing Conference," Papers 1804.03219, arXiv.org.
    18. Maxime C. Cohen & Ilan Lobel & Renato Paes Leme, 2020. "Feature-Based Dynamic Pricing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(11), pages 4921-4943, November.
    19. Joseph Jiaqi Xu & Peter S. Fader & Senthil Veeraraghavan, 2019. "Designing and Evaluating Dynamic Pricing Policies for Major League Baseball Tickets," Service Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(1), pages 121-138, January.
    20. Daniel R. Jiang & Lina Al-Kanj & Warren B. Powell, 2020. "Optimistic Monte Carlo Tree Search with Sampled Information Relaxation Dual Bounds," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 68(6), pages 1678-1697, November.

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