IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/oropre/v56y2008i3p527-541.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Repeated Commit-or-Defer Decisions with a Deadline: The Influenza Vaccine Composition

Author

Listed:
  • Laura J. Kornish

    (Leeds School of Business, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80309)

  • Ralph L. Keeney

    (Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708)

Abstract

Seasonal products have an effective inventory deadline, a time by which the inventory must be ready to distribute. The deadline creates an incentive to start early with production. However, opportunities to gather information that might change production decisions provide an incentive to defer the start of production. We study the resultant dynamic decision problem with alternatives that commit to one of several courses of action now and an alternative to defer the commitment to gather more information about the possible consequences of each alternative. The deadline increases the effective cost of gathering information because that cost includes the value sacrificed by reducing the time available to produce inventory. We frame our model using the annual influenza vaccine composition decision: deciding between strains of the virus to include, which must happen in the spring to allow time for vaccine production before the fall flu season begins. Our analysis describes the optimal decision strategies for this commit-or-defer decision. Many insights are drawn from this model that could contribute to more informed flu vaccine composition decisions. We comment on the relevance of this commit-or-defer decision model to a firm's production decisions for other seasonal products with an inventory deadline such as fashion goods.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura J. Kornish & Ralph L. Keeney, 2008. "Repeated Commit-or-Defer Decisions with a Deadline: The Influenza Vaccine Composition," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(3), pages 527-541, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:56:y:2008:i:3:p:527-541
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.1070.0436
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/opre.1070.0436
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/opre.1070.0436?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rothschild, Michael, 1974. "Searching for the Lowest Price When the Distribution of Prices Is Unknown," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(4), pages 689-711, July/Aug..
    2. Kevin F. McCardle, 1985. "Information Acquisition and the Adoption of New Technology," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(11), pages 1372-1389, November.
    3. Steven A. Lippman & Kevin F. McCardle, 1991. "Uncertain Search: A Model of Search Among Technologies of Uncertain Values," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(11), pages 1474-1490, November.
    4. Lippman, Steven A & McCall, John J, 1976. "The Economics of Job Search: A Survey," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 14(3), pages 347-368, September.
    5. Marshall Fisher & Ananth Raman, 1996. "Reducing the Cost of Demand Uncertainty Through Accurate Response to Early Sales," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 44(1), pages 87-99, February.
    6. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "Increasing risk: I. A definition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-243, September.
    7. Jensen, Richard, 1982. "Adoption and diffusion of an innovation of uncertain profitability," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 182-193, June.
    8. Michael Rothschild, 1974. "Searching for the Lowest Price When the Distribution of Prices Is Unknown: A Summary," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 1, pages 293-294, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Lippman, Steven A & McCall, John J, 1976. "The Economics of Job Search: A Survey: Part I," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 14(2), pages 155-189, June.
    10. Kornish, Laura J., 2006. "Technology choice and timing with positive network effects," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 173(1), pages 268-282, August.
    11. Joseph T. Wu & Lawrence M. Wein & Alan S. Perelson, 2005. "Optimization of Influenza Vaccine Selection," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 53(3), pages 456-476, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kenan Arifoglu & Sarang Deo & Seyed M. R. Iravani, 2012. "Consumption Externality and Yield Uncertainty in the Influenza Vaccine Supply Chain: Interventions in Demand and Supply Sides," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(6), pages 1072-1091, June.
    2. Alexandar Angelus & Özalp Özer, 2022. "On the large‐scale production of a new vaccine," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(7), pages 3043-3060, July.
    3. Hamed Mamani & Stephen E. Chick & David Simchi-Levi, 2013. "A Game-Theoretic Model of International Influenza Vaccination Coordination," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(7), pages 1650-1670, July.
    4. Duijzer, Lotty Evertje & van Jaarsveld, Willem & Dekker, Rommert, 2018. "The benefits of combining early aspecific vaccination with later specific vaccination," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(2), pages 606-619.
    5. Stephen E. Chick & Sameer Hasija & Javad Nasiry, 2017. "Information Elicitation and Influenza Vaccine Production," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 65(1), pages 75-96, February.
    6. Niu, Baozhuang & Dong, Jian & Liu, Yaoqi, 2021. "Incentive alignment for blockchain adoption in medicine supply chains," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    7. Soo-Haeng Cho, 2010. "The Optimal Composition of Influenza Vaccines Subject to Random Production Yields," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 12(2), pages 256-277, November.
    8. Osman Y. Özaltın & Oleg A. Prokopyev & Andrew J. Schaefer & Mark S. Roberts, 2011. "Optimizing the Societal Benefits of the Annual Influenza Vaccine: A Stochastic Programming Approach," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(5), pages 1131-1143, October.
    9. Lin, Qi & Zhao, Qiuhong & Lev, Benjamin, 2022. "Influenza vaccine supply chain coordination under uncertain supply and demand," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 297(3), pages 930-948.
    10. Lauren E. Cipriano & Jeremy D. Goldhaber-Fiebert & Shan Liu & Thomas A. Weber, 2018. "Optimal Information Collection Policies in a Markov Decision Process Framework," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 38(7), pages 797-809, October.
    11. Duijzer, Lotty Evertje & van Jaarsveld, Willem & Dekker, Rommert, 2018. "Literature review: The vaccine supply chain," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 268(1), pages 174-192.
    12. Peng Sun & Liu Yang & Francis de Véricourt, 2009. "Selfish Drug Allocation for Containing an International Influenza Pandemic at the Onset," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 57(6), pages 1320-1332, December.
    13. Osman Y. Özaltın & Oleg A. Prokopyev & Andrew J. Schaefer, 2018. "Optimal Design of the Seasonal Influenza Vaccine with Manufacturing Autonomy," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 30(2), pages 371-387, May.
    14. Ece Zeliha Demirci & Nesim Kohen Erkip, 2020. "Designing intervention scheme for vaccine market: a bilevel programming approach," Flexible Services and Manufacturing Journal, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 453-485, June.
    15. Stephen E. Chick & Sameer Hasija & Javad Nasiry, 2017. "Information Elicitation and Influenza Vaccine Production," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 65(1), pages 75-96, February.
    16. Choudhury, Nishat Alam & Ramkumar, M. & Schoenherr, Tobias & Singh, Shalabh, 2023. "The role of operations and supply chain management during epidemics and pandemics: Potential and future research opportunities," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    17. Kargar, Bahareh & MohajerAnsari, Pedram & Esra Büyüktahtakın, İ. & Jahani, Hamed & Talluri, Sri, 2024. "Data-driven modeling for designing a sustainable and efficient vaccine supply chain: A COVID-19 case study," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    18. Guo, Feiyu & Cao, Erbao, 2021. "Can reference points explain vaccine hesitancy? A new perspective on their formation and updating," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    19. Yarmand, Hamed & Ivy, Julie S. & Denton, Brian & Lloyd, Alun L., 2014. "Optimal two-phase vaccine allocation to geographically different regions under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 233(1), pages 208-219.
    20. Muckstadt, John A. & Klein, Michael G. & Jackson, Peter L. & Gougelet, Robert M. & Hupert, Nathaniel, 2023. "Efficient and effective large-scale vaccine distribution," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    21. Shivam Gupta & Anupam Agrawal & Jennifer K. Ryan, 2023. "Agile contracting: Managing incentives under uncertain needs," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 32(3), pages 972-988, March.
    22. Canan Ulu & James E. Smith, 2009. "Uncertainty, Information Acquisition, and Technology Adoption," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 57(3), pages 740-752, June.
    23. Samii, Amir-Behzad & Pibernik, Richard & Yadav, Prashant & Vereecke, Ann, 2012. "Reservation and allocation policies for influenza vaccines," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(3), pages 495-507.
    24. Lauren E. Cipriano & Thomas A. Weber, 2018. "Population-level intervention and information collection in dynamic healthcare policy," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 604-631, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Laura J. Kornish & Karl T. Ulrich, 2011. "Opportunity Spaces in Innovation: Empirical Analysis of Large Samples of Ideas," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(1), pages 107-128, January.
    2. David, Israel, 1998. "Explicit results for a class of asset-selling problems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 576-584, November.
    3. Rauh, Michael T., 1997. "A Model of Temporary Search Market Equilibrium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 128-153, November.
    4. Churlzu Lim & J. Neil Bearden & J. Cole Smith, 2006. "Sequential Search with Multiattribute Options," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 3(1), pages 3-15, March.
    5. Rafael P. Greminger, 2022. "Optimal Search and Discovery," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(5), pages 3904-3924, May.
    6. Xing Zhang & Tat Y. Chan & Ying Xie, 2018. "Price Search and Periodic Price Discounts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(2), pages 495-510, February.
    7. Jochen Haller, 2002. "The Impact of Electronic Markets on B2B-Relationships," Industrial Organization 0204004, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Feb 2004.
    8. Gatti, J. Rupert J., 1999. "Multi-Commodity Consumer Search," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 219-244, June.
    9. Hak Chun, Young, 1996. "Selecting the best choice in the weighted secretary problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 135-147, July.
    10. Nirav Mehta, 2019. "Measuring quality for use in incentive schemes: The case of “shrinkage” estimators," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 10(4), pages 1537-1577, November.
    11. Adam, Klaus, 2001. "Learning While Searching for the Best Alternative," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 252-280, November.
    12. Greminger, Rafael, 2019. "Optimal Search and Awareness Expansion," Other publications TiSEM ac47e6ff-42a4-4d70-addd-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    13. Thomas J. Emmerling & Abdullah Yavas & Yildiray Yildirim, 2021. "To accept or not to accept: Optimal strategy for sellers in real estate," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(S1), pages 268-296, March.
    14. Benny Moldovanu & Alex Gershkov, 2008. "The Trade-off Between Fast Learning and Dynamic Efficiency," 2008 Meeting Papers 348, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Lemieux, James & Peterson, Robert A., 2011. "Purchase deadline as a moderator of the effects of price uncertainty on search duration," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 33-44, February.
    16. Grosfeld-Nir, Abraham & Sarne, David & Spiegler, Israel, 2009. "Modeling the search for the least costly opportunity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 197(2), pages 667-674, September.
    17. Rafael P. Greminger, 2019. "Optimal Search and Discovery," Papers 1911.07773, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    18. Chun, Young H., 1999. "Selecting the best choice in the full information group interview problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 635-651, December.
    19. Greminger, Rafael, 2019. "Optimal Search and Awareness Expansion," Discussion Paper 2019-034, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    20. Chun, Young Hak, 1997. "Rank-based selection strategies for the random walk process," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 417-427, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:56:y:2008:i:3:p:527-541. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.