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Repeated Commit-or-Defer Decisions with a Deadline: The Influenza Vaccine Composition

Author

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  • Laura J. Kornish

    (Leeds School of Business, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80309)

  • Ralph L. Keeney

    (Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708)

Abstract

Seasonal products have an effective inventory deadline, a time by which the inventory must be ready to distribute. The deadline creates an incentive to start early with production. However, opportunities to gather information that might change production decisions provide an incentive to defer the start of production. We study the resultant dynamic decision problem with alternatives that commit to one of several courses of action now and an alternative to defer the commitment to gather more information about the possible consequences of each alternative. The deadline increases the effective cost of gathering information because that cost includes the value sacrificed by reducing the time available to produce inventory. We frame our model using the annual influenza vaccine composition decision: deciding between strains of the virus to include, which must happen in the spring to allow time for vaccine production before the fall flu season begins. Our analysis describes the optimal decision strategies for this commit-or-defer decision. Many insights are drawn from this model that could contribute to more informed flu vaccine composition decisions. We comment on the relevance of this commit-or-defer decision model to a firm's production decisions for other seasonal products with an inventory deadline such as fashion goods.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura J. Kornish & Ralph L. Keeney, 2008. "Repeated Commit-or-Defer Decisions with a Deadline: The Influenza Vaccine Composition," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(3), pages 527-541, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:56:y:2008:i:3:p:527-541
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.1070.0436
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kenan Arifoglu & Sarang Deo & Seyed M. R. Iravani, 2012. "Consumption Externality and Yield Uncertainty in the Influenza Vaccine Supply Chain: Interventions in Demand and Supply Sides," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(6), pages 1072-1091, June.
    2. Alexandar Angelus & Özalp Özer, 2022. "On the large‐scale production of a new vaccine," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(7), pages 3043-3060, July.
    3. Soo-Haeng Cho, 2010. "The Optimal Composition of Influenza Vaccines Subject to Random Production Yields," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 12(2), pages 256-277, November.
    4. Osman Y. Özaltın & Oleg A. Prokopyev & Andrew J. Schaefer & Mark S. Roberts, 2011. "Optimizing the Societal Benefits of the Annual Influenza Vaccine: A Stochastic Programming Approach," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(5), pages 1131-1143, October.
    5. Lin, Qi & Zhao, Qiuhong & Lev, Benjamin, 2022. "Influenza vaccine supply chain coordination under uncertain supply and demand," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 297(3), pages 930-948.
    6. Peng Sun & Liu Yang & Francis de Véricourt, 2009. "Selfish Drug Allocation for Containing an International Influenza Pandemic at the Onset," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 57(6), pages 1320-1332, December.
    7. Osman Y. Özaltın & Oleg A. Prokopyev & Andrew J. Schaefer, 2018. "Optimal Design of the Seasonal Influenza Vaccine with Manufacturing Autonomy," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 30(2), pages 371-387, May.
    8. Duijzer, Lotty Evertje & van Jaarsveld, Willem & Dekker, Rommert, 2018. "Literature review: The vaccine supply chain," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 268(1), pages 174-192.
    9. Duijzer, Lotty Evertje & van Jaarsveld, Willem & Dekker, Rommert, 2018. "The benefits of combining early aspecific vaccination with later specific vaccination," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(2), pages 606-619.
    10. Ece Zeliha Demirci & Nesim Kohen Erkip, 2020. "Designing intervention scheme for vaccine market: a bilevel programming approach," Flexible Services and Manufacturing Journal, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 453-485, June.
    11. Stephen E. Chick & Sameer Hasija & Javad Nasiry, 2017. "Information Elicitation and Influenza Vaccine Production," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 65(1), pages 75-96, February.
    12. Guo, Feiyu & Cao, Erbao, 2021. "Can reference points explain vaccine hesitancy? A new perspective on their formation and updating," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    13. Shivam Gupta & Anupam Agrawal & Jennifer K. Ryan, 2023. "Agile contracting: Managing incentives under uncertain needs," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 32(3), pages 972-988, March.
    14. Canan Ulu & James E. Smith, 2009. "Uncertainty, Information Acquisition, and Technology Adoption," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 57(3), pages 740-752, June.
    15. Niu, Baozhuang & Dong, Jian & Liu, Yaoqi, 2021. "Incentive alignment for blockchain adoption in medicine supply chains," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    16. Hamed Mamani & Stephen E. Chick & David Simchi-Levi, 2013. "A Game-Theoretic Model of International Influenza Vaccination Coordination," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(7), pages 1650-1670, July.
    17. Stephen E. Chick & Sameer Hasija & Javad Nasiry, 2017. "Information Elicitation and Influenza Vaccine Production," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 65(1), pages 75-96, February.
    18. Lauren E. Cipriano & Jeremy D. Goldhaber-Fiebert & Shan Liu & Thomas A. Weber, 2018. "Optimal Information Collection Policies in a Markov Decision Process Framework," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 38(7), pages 797-809, October.
    19. Choudhury, Nishat Alam & Ramkumar, M. & Schoenherr, Tobias & Singh, Shalabh, 2023. "The role of operations and supply chain management during epidemics and pandemics: Potential and future research opportunities," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    20. Kargar, Bahareh & MohajerAnsari, Pedram & Esra Büyüktahtakın, İ. & Jahani, Hamed & Talluri, Sri, 2024. "Data-driven modeling for designing a sustainable and efficient vaccine supply chain: A COVID-19 case study," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    21. Yarmand, Hamed & Ivy, Julie S. & Denton, Brian & Lloyd, Alun L., 2014. "Optimal two-phase vaccine allocation to geographically different regions under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 233(1), pages 208-219.
    22. Muckstadt, John A. & Klein, Michael G. & Jackson, Peter L. & Gougelet, Robert M. & Hupert, Nathaniel, 2023. "Efficient and effective large-scale vaccine distribution," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    23. Samii, Amir-Behzad & Pibernik, Richard & Yadav, Prashant & Vereecke, Ann, 2012. "Reservation and allocation policies for influenza vaccines," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(3), pages 495-507.
    24. Lauren E. Cipriano & Thomas A. Weber, 2018. "Population-level intervention and information collection in dynamic healthcare policy," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 604-631, December.

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