IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jomega/v99y2021ics0305048319304487.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Can reference points explain vaccine hesitancy? A new perspective on their formation and updating

Author

Listed:
  • Guo, Feiyu
  • Cao, Erbao

Abstract

Vaccine hesitancy is featured by delayed decisions in receiving or refusing vaccination despite the availability of vaccination services. Such delayed decisions may decrease vaccine coverage that is vital to reducing the possibility of disease outbreaks. Inspired to identify the reason for this feature and its implications, we propose a two-stage analytical framework by characterizing how vaccination decisions are affected by reference point formation and updating. In the first stage, two reference points are formed under contextual influences and result in contradictory information. This contradictory information causes individuals to delay decisions rather than to make decisions immediately. In the second stage, the reference points are updated after more information is received. These updated reference points generate psychological utility, allowing the delayed individuals to make decisions eventually. Under this framework, we show that, relative to cases with no-delays, these delayed decisions should be utilized to enhance vaccination coverage by developing a tailored strategy that addresses reference points. This strategy has two effects: (i) by affecting reference points formation, it decreases the number of delayed individuals and correspondingly increases the number of immediately vaccinated individuals and (ii) by affecting reference points updating, it increases the psychological utility of individuals who delay in receiving vaccination.

Suggested Citation

  • Guo, Feiyu & Cao, Erbao, 2021. "Can reference points explain vaccine hesitancy? A new perspective on their formation and updating," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:99:y:2021:i:c:s0305048319304487
    DOI: 10.1016/j.omega.2019.102179
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305048319304487
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.omega.2019.102179?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Botond Kőszegi & Matthew Rabin, 2006. "A Model of Reference-Dependent Preferences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(4), pages 1133-1165.
    2. Elizabeth Bodine-Baron & Sarah Nowak & Raffaello Varadavas & Neeraj Sood, 2013. "Conforming and Non-conforming Peer Effects in Vaccination Decisions," NBER Working Papers 19528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Kenan Arifoglu & Sarang Deo & Seyed M. R. Iravani, 2012. "Consumption Externality and Yield Uncertainty in the Influenza Vaccine Supply Chain: Interventions in Demand and Supply Sides," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(6), pages 1072-1091, June.
    4. Osman Y. Özaltın & Oleg A. Prokopyev & Andrew J. Schaefer & Mark S. Roberts, 2011. "Optimizing the Societal Benefits of the Annual Influenza Vaccine: A Stochastic Programming Approach," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(5), pages 1131-1143, October.
    5. Stephen E. Chick & Sameer Hasija & Javad Nasiry, 2017. "Information Elicitation and Influenza Vaccine Production," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 65(1), pages 75-96, February.
    6. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Opher Baron & Ming Hu & Sami Najafi-Asadolahi & Qu Qian, 2015. "Newsvendor Selling to Loss-Averse Consumers with Stochastic Reference Points," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 17(4), pages 456-469, October.
    8. Necati Tereyağoğlu & Peter S. Fader & Senthil Veeraraghavan, 2018. "Multiattribute Loss Aversion and Reference Dependence: Evidence from the Performing Arts Industry," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(1), pages 421-436, January.
    9. Botond Kőszegi & Paul Heidhues, 2008. "Competition and Price Variation When Consumers Are Loss Averse," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1245-1268, September.
    10. Manel Baucells & Martin Weber & Frank Welfens, 2011. "Reference-Point Formation and Updating," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(3), pages 506-519, March.
    11. Juanjuan Meng & Xi Weng, 2018. "Can Prospect Theory Explain the Disposition Effect? A New Perspective on Reference Points," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(7), pages 3331-3351, July.
    12. Tinglong Dai & Soo-Haeng Cho & Fuqiang Zhang, 2016. "Contracting for On-Time Delivery in the U.S. Influenza Vaccine Supply Chain," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 18(3), pages 332-346, July.
    13. Adida, Elodie & Dey, Debabrata & Mamani, Hamed, 2013. "Operational issues and network effects in vaccine markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 414-427.
    14. Bruce G. S. Hardie & Eric J. Johnson & Peter S. Fader, 1993. "Modeling Loss Aversion and Reference Dependence Effects on Brand Choice," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 12(4), pages 378-394.
    15. Stephen E. Chick & Sameer Hasija & Javad Nasiry, 2017. "Information Elicitation and Influenza Vaccine Production," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 65(1), pages 75-96, February.
    16. Stephen E. Chick & Hamed Mamani & David Simchi-Levi, 2008. "Supply Chain Coordination and Influenza Vaccination," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(6), pages 1493-1506, December.
    17. Robbins, Matthew J. & Jacobson, Sheldon H., 2011. "Pediatric vaccine procurement policy: The monopsonist's problem," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 589-597, December.
    18. Dan Yamin & Arieh Gavious, 2013. "Incentives' Effect in Influenza Vaccination Policy," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(12), pages 2667-2686, December.
    19. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October.
    20. Yun Shi & Xiangyu Cui & Jing Yao & Duan Li, 2015. "Dynamic Trading with Reference Point Adaptation and Loss Aversion," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 63(4), pages 789-806, August.
    21. Osman Y. Özaltın & Oleg A. Prokopyev & Andrew J. Schaefer, 2018. "Optimal Design of the Seasonal Influenza Vaccine with Manufacturing Autonomy," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 30(2), pages 371-387, May.
    22. Laura J. Kornish & Ralph L. Keeney, 2008. "Repeated Commit-or-Defer Decisions with a Deadline: The Influenza Vaccine Composition," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(3), pages 527-541, June.
    23. Manel Baucells & Woonam Hwang, 2017. "A Model of Mental Accounting and Reference Price Adaptation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(12), pages 4201-4218, December.
    24. Brito, Dagobert L. & Sheshinski, Eytan & Intriligator, Michael D., 1991. "Externalities and compulsary vaccinations," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 69-90, June.
    25. Sarang Deo & Charles J. Corbett, 2009. "Cournot Competition Under Yield Uncertainty: The Case of the U.S. Influenza Vaccine Market," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 11(4), pages 563-576, July.
    26. Eric J. Allen & Patricia M. Dechow & Devin G. Pope & George Wu, 2017. "Reference-Dependent Preferences: Evidence from Marathon Runners," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(6), pages 1657-1672, June.
    27. Soo-Haeng Cho, 2010. "The Optimal Composition of Influenza Vaccines Subject to Random Production Yields," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 12(2), pages 256-277, November.
    28. Wang, Charles X. & Webster, Scott, 2009. "The loss-averse newsvendor problem," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 93-105, February.
    29. Lunday, Brian J. & Robbins, Matthew J., 2019. "Collaboratively-developed vaccine pricing and stable profit sharing mechanisms," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 102-113.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tang, Lianhua & Li, Yantong & Bai, Danyu & Liu, Tao & Coelho, Leandro C., 2022. "Bi-objective optimization for a multi-period COVID-19 vaccination planning problem," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    2. Kılıç, Hakan & Güneş, Evrim Didem, 2024. "Patient adherence in healthcare operations: A narrative review," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    3. Emanuele Blasioli & Bahareh Mansouri & Srinivas Subramanya Tamvada & Elkafi Hassini, 2023. "Vaccine Allocation and Distribution: A Review with a Focus on Quantitative Methodologies and Application to Equity, Hesitancy, and COVID-19 Pandemic," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 1-32, June.
    4. Yanfei Zhu & Yuli Wang & Ying Li & Xiaoxi Du & Qi Guo & Mo Chen & Yun Lin, 2022. "The Construction of Image Reference Points and Text Appeals Information Tailoring in Promoting Diners’ Public Environment Maintenance Behavior Intention," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-18, November.
    5. Wang, Zhanpeng & Ye, Chao & Liu, Xinxin & Ma, Ruize & Sun, Zilai & Ruan, Junhu, 2023. "Optimal retail sales strategies for old and new products in monopoly and horizontal competition scenarios," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    6. Xu, Danni & Wang, Fan & Zhuo, Xiaopo & Liu, Yaoqi, 2024. "The performance of government subsidy schemes in a competitive vaccine market considering consumers' free-riding behavior," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lin, Qi & Zhao, Qiuhong & Lev, Benjamin, 2022. "Influenza vaccine supply chain coordination under uncertain supply and demand," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 297(3), pages 930-948.
    2. Duijzer, Lotty Evertje & van Jaarsveld, Willem & Dekker, Rommert, 2018. "Literature review: The vaccine supply chain," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 268(1), pages 174-192.
    3. Feiyu Guo & Erbao Cao, 2020. "Does Reference Dependence Impact Intervention Mechanisms in Vaccine Markets?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-28, August.
    4. Muckstadt, John A. & Klein, Michael G. & Jackson, Peter L. & Gougelet, Robert M. & Hupert, Nathaniel, 2023. "Efficient and effective large-scale vaccine distribution," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    5. Alexandar Angelus & Özalp Özer, 2022. "On the large‐scale production of a new vaccine," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(7), pages 3043-3060, July.
    6. Xie, Lei & Hou, Pengwen & Han, Hongshuai, 2021. "Implications of government subsidy on the vaccine product R&D when the buyer is risk averse," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    7. Stephen E. Chick & Sameer Hasija & Javad Nasiry, 2017. "Information Elicitation and Influenza Vaccine Production," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 65(1), pages 75-96, February.
    8. Stephen E. Chick & Sameer Hasija & Javad Nasiry, 2017. "Information Elicitation and Influenza Vaccine Production," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 65(1), pages 75-96, February.
    9. Choudhury, Nishat Alam & Ramkumar, M. & Schoenherr, Tobias & Singh, Shalabh, 2023. "The role of operations and supply chain management during epidemics and pandemics: Potential and future research opportunities," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    10. Ece Zeliha Demirci & Nesim Kohen Erkip, 2020. "Designing intervention scheme for vaccine market: a bilevel programming approach," Flexible Services and Manufacturing Journal, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 453-485, June.
    11. Aurélien Baillon & Han Bleichrodt & Vitalie Spinu, 2020. "Searching for the Reference Point," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(1), pages 93-112, January.
    12. Osman Y. Özaltın & Oleg A. Prokopyev & Andrew J. Schaefer, 2018. "Optimal Design of the Seasonal Influenza Vaccine with Manufacturing Autonomy," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 30(2), pages 371-387, May.
    13. Westerink-Duijzer, L.E. & Schlicher, L.P.J. & Musegaas, M., 2019. "Fair allocations for cooperation problems in vaccination," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2019-06, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    14. Lotty E. Westerink‐Duijzer & Loe P. J. Schlicher & Marieke Musegaas, 2020. "Core Allocations for Cooperation Problems in Vaccination," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(7), pages 1720-1737, July.
    15. Tinglong Dai & Soo-Haeng Cho & Fuqiang Zhang, 2016. "Contracting for On-Time Delivery in the U.S. Influenza Vaccine Supply Chain," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 18(3), pages 332-346, July.
    16. Arzi Adbi & Chirantan Chatterjee & Matej Drev & Anant Mishra, 2019. "When the Big One Came: A Natural Experiment on Demand Shock and Market Structure in India's Influenza Vaccine Markets," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 28(4), pages 810-832, April.
    17. Zhao, Yan & Li, Yanhui & Yao, Qi & Guan, Xu, 2023. "Dual-channel retailing strategy vs. omni-channel buy-online-and-pick-up-in-store behaviors with reference freshness effect," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    18. Hamed Mamani & Stephen E. Chick & David Simchi-Levi, 2013. "A Game-Theoretic Model of International Influenza Vaccination Coordination," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(7), pages 1650-1670, July.
    19. Wang, Ruopeng & Wang, Jinting, 2018. "Procurement strategies with quantity-oriented reference point and loss aversion," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1-11.
    20. Qiuping Yu & Gad Allon & Achal Bassamboo, 2021. "The Reference Effect of Delay Announcements: A Field Experiment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7417-7437, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:99:y:2021:i:c:s0305048319304487. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/375/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.