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Can reference points explain vaccine hesitancy? A new perspective on their formation and updating

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  • Guo, Feiyu
  • Cao, Erbao

Abstract

Vaccine hesitancy is featured by delayed decisions in receiving or refusing vaccination despite the availability of vaccination services. Such delayed decisions may decrease vaccine coverage that is vital to reducing the possibility of disease outbreaks. Inspired to identify the reason for this feature and its implications, we propose a two-stage analytical framework by characterizing how vaccination decisions are affected by reference point formation and updating. In the first stage, two reference points are formed under contextual influences and result in contradictory information. This contradictory information causes individuals to delay decisions rather than to make decisions immediately. In the second stage, the reference points are updated after more information is received. These updated reference points generate psychological utility, allowing the delayed individuals to make decisions eventually. Under this framework, we show that, relative to cases with no-delays, these delayed decisions should be utilized to enhance vaccination coverage by developing a tailored strategy that addresses reference points. This strategy has two effects: (i) by affecting reference points formation, it decreases the number of delayed individuals and correspondingly increases the number of immediately vaccinated individuals and (ii) by affecting reference points updating, it increases the psychological utility of individuals who delay in receiving vaccination.

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  • Guo, Feiyu & Cao, Erbao, 2021. "Can reference points explain vaccine hesitancy? A new perspective on their formation and updating," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:99:y:2021:i:c:s0305048319304487
    DOI: 10.1016/j.omega.2019.102179
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