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TECHNICAL NOTE---Spatial Queueing Analysis of an Interdiction System to Protect Cities from a Nuclear Terrorist Attack

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  • Michael P. Atkinson

    (Institute for Computational and Mathematical Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305)

  • Lawrence M. Wein

    (Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305)

Abstract

We formulate and analyze a spatial queueing model concerning a terrorist who is attempting to drive a nuclear or radiological weapon toward a target in a city center. In our model, imperfect radiation sensors form a circular wall around the periphery of the city, and vehicles setting off sensor alarms (representing a terrorist or a nuisance alarm) arrive randomly at the perimeter of a circle (representing the wall of sensors) and drive toward the center of the circle. Interdiction vehicles, one in each wedge of the circle, chase the alarm-generating vehicles. We derive an accurate mathematical expression for the mean damage inflicted by a terrorist in this system in terms of the arrival rate of alarm-generating vehicles and the number of interdiction vehicles. Our results suggest that detection-interdiction systems using current technology are capable of mitigating the damage from a nuclear weapon made of plutonium, but not one made of uranium or a radiological weapon.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael P. Atkinson & Lawrence M. Wein, 2008. "TECHNICAL NOTE---Spatial Queueing Analysis of an Interdiction System to Protect Cities from a Nuclear Terrorist Attack," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(1), pages 247-254, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:56:y:2008:i:1:p:247-254
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.1070.0490
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Michael P. Atkinson & Zheng Cao & Lawrence M. Wein, 2008. "Optimal Stopping Analysis of a Radiation Detection System to Protect Cities from a Nuclear Terrorist Attack," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(2), pages 353-371, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nedialko Dimitrov & Dennis Michalopoulos & David Morton & Michael Nehme & Feng Pan & Elmira Popova & Erich Schneider & Gregory Thoreson, 2011. "Network deployment of radiation detectors with physics-based detection probability calculations," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 187(1), pages 207-228, July.
    2. Gary M. Gaukler & Chenhua Li & Yu Ding & Sunil S. Chirayath, 2012. "Detecting Nuclear Materials Smuggling: Performance Evaluation of Container Inspection Policies," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(3), pages 531-554, March.
    3. Fang Lu & John J. Hasenbein & David P. Morton, 2016. "Modeling and Optimization of a Spatial Detection System," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 28(3), pages 512-526, August.
    4. Michael J. Armstrong, 2014. "Modeling Short-Range Ballistic Missile Defense and Israel's Iron Dome System," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 62(5), pages 1028-1039, October.
    5. Sushil Gupta & Martin K. Starr & Reza Zanjirani Farahani & Mahsa Mahboob Ghodsi, 2020. "Prevention of Terrorism–An Assessment of Prior POM Work and Future Potentials," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(7), pages 1789-1815, July.
    6. Kevin S. Ni & Daniel Faissol & Thomas Edmunds & Richard Wheeler, 2013. "Exploitation of Ambiguous Cues to Infer Terrorist Activity," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(1), pages 42-62, March.
    7. Kosanoglu, Fuat & Bier, Vicki M., 2020. "Target-oriented utility for interdiction of transportation networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    8. Michael P. Atkinson & Moshe Kress & Roberto Szechtman, 2017. "To catch an intruder: Part A—uncluttered scenario," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(1), pages 29-40, February.

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