IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v68y2022i1p608-634.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Valuation Uncertainty and Short-Sales Constraints: Evidence from the IPO Aftermarket

Author

Listed:
  • Panos N. Patatoukas

    (Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720)

  • Richard G. Sloan

    (Marshall School of Business, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California 90089)

  • Annika Yu Wang

    (Bauer College of Business, University of Houston, Houston, Texas 77204)

Abstract

We use the initial public offering (IPO) setting to provide evidence that the combination of valuation uncertainty and short-sales constraints generates significant equity market mispricing. The IPOs that we predict to be most susceptible to overpricing in the immediate aftermarket have first-day returns of +47% and lockup expiration returns of − 9%. Our detailed analysis of securities lending market data confirms that these IPOs experience severe short-sales constraints that peak around the lockup expiration. Our paper both explains the anomalous pricing of IPOs and highlights the importance of valuation uncertainty and short-sales constraints in explaining equity mispricing.

Suggested Citation

  • Panos N. Patatoukas & Richard G. Sloan & Annika Yu Wang, 2022. "Valuation Uncertainty and Short-Sales Constraints: Evidence from the IPO Aftermarket," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(1), pages 608-634, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:68:y:2022:i:1:p:608-634
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2020.3900
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2020.3900
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mnsc.2020.3900?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michelle Lowry & G. William Schwert, 2002. "IPO Market Cycles: Bubbles or Sequential Learning?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1171-1200, June.
    2. Jay R. Ritter & Ivo Welch, 2002. "A Review of IPO Activity, Pricing, and Allocations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1795-1828, August.
    3. Michelle Lowry & Micah S. Officer & G. William Schwert, 2010. "The Variability of IPO Initial Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(2), pages 425-465, April.
    4. Mark Mitchell & Todd Pulvino & Erik Stafford, 2002. "Limited Arbitrage in Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 551-584, April.
    5. Chen, Joseph & Hong, Harrison & Stein, Jeremy C., 2002. "Breadth of ownership and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 171-205.
    6. Harrison Hong & José Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2006. "Asset Float and Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1073-1117, June.
    7. Edwards, Amy K. & Hanley, Kathleen Weiss, 2010. "Short selling in initial public offerings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 21-39, October.
    8. Tim Loughran & Jay R. Ritter, 2002. "Why Don't Issuers Get Upset About Leaving Money on the Table in IPOs?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 413-444, March.
    9. Alessandro Beber & Marco Pagano, 2013. "Short-Selling Bans Around the World: Evidence from the 2007–09 Crisis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(1), pages 343-381, February.
    10. Beneish, M.D. & Lee, C.M.C. & Nichols, D.C., 2015. "In short supply: Short-sellers and stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 33-57.
    11. Aggarwal, Rajesh K. & Krigman, Laurie & Womack, Kent L., 2002. "Strategic IPO underpricing, information momentum, and lockup expiration selling," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 105-137, October.
    12. Nagel, Stefan, 2005. "Short sales, institutional investors and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 277-309, November.
    13. Lauren Cohen & Karl B. Diether & Christopher J. Malloy, 2007. "Supply and Demand Shifts in the Shorting Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2061-2096, October.
    14. Praveen Kumar & Nisan Langberg & K. Sivaramakrishnan, 2016. "Voluntary Disclosure with Informed Trading in the IPO Market," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(5), pages 1365-1394, December.
    15. Fotak, Veljko & Raman, Vikas & Yadav, Pradeep K., 2014. "Fails-to-deliver, short selling, and market quality," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 493-516.
    16. Owen A. Lamont & Richard H. Thaler, 2003. "Can the Market Add and Subtract? Mispricing in Tech Stock Carve-outs," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(2), pages 227-268, April.
    17. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    18. Geczy, Christopher C. & Musto, David K. & Reed, Adam V., 2002. "Stocks are special too: an analysis of the equity lending market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 241-269.
    19. Jones, Charles M. & Lamont, Owen A., 2002. "Short-sale constraints and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 207-239.
    20. Alon Brav & Paul A. Gompers, 2003. "The Role of Lockups in Initial Public Offerings," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(1), pages 1-29.
    21. Beatty, Randolph P. & Ritter, Jay R., 1986. "Investment banking, reputation, and the underpricing of initial public offerings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 213-232.
    22. Eli Ofek & Matthew Richardson, 2003. "DotCom Mania: The Rise and Fall of Internet Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1113-1137, June.
    23. Yan Gao & Connie X. Mao & Rui Zhong, 2006. "Divergence Of Opinion And Long‐Term Performance Of Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 29(1), pages 113-129, March.
    24. Benveniste, Lawrence M. & Spindt, Paul A., 1989. "How investment bankers determine the offer price and allocation of new issues," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 343-361.
    25. Ritter, Jay R, 1991. "The Long-run Performance of Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 3-27, March.
    26. Cook, Douglas O. & Kieschnick, Robert & Van Ness, Robert A., 2006. "On the marketing of IPOs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 35-61, October.
    27. Michael Willenborg & Biyu Wu & Yanhua Sunny Yang, 2015. "Issuer Operating Performance and IPO Price Formation," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(5), pages 1109-1149, December.
    28. Grundy, Bruce D. & Lim, Bryan & Verwijmeren, Patrick, 2012. "Do option markets undo restrictions on short sales? Evidence from the 2008 short-sale ban," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 331-348.
    29. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1987. "Constraints on short-selling and asset price adjustment to private information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 277-311, June.
    30. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1994. "Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1541-1578, December.
    31. Rock, Kevin, 1986. "Why new issues are underpriced," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 187-212.
    32. Boehme, Rodney D. & Danielsen, Bartley R. & Sorescu, Sorin M., 2006. "Short-Sale Constraints, Differences of Opinion, and Overvaluation," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(2), pages 455-487, June.
    33. Reed, Adam V., 2015. "Connecting supply, short-sellers and stock returns: Research challenges," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 97-103.
    34. repec:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:3:p:1113-1138 is not listed on IDEAS
    35. Logue, Dennis E., 1973. "On the Pricing of Unseasoned Equity Issues: 1965–1969," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 91-103, January.
    36. Laura Casares Field & Gordon Hanka, 2001. "The Expiration of IPO Share Lockups," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 471-500, April.
    37. X. Frank Zhang, 2006. "Information Uncertainty and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 105-137, February.
    38. Bushee, Brian & Cedergren, Matthew & Michels, Jeremy, 2020. "Does the media help or hurt retail investors during the IPO quiet period?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1).
    39. Daniel J. Bradley & Bradford D. Jordan & Jay R. Ritter, 2003. "The Quiet Period Goes out with a Bang," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 1-36, February.
    40. Dambra, Michael & Field, Laura Casares & Gustafson, Matthew T., 2015. "The JOBS Act and IPO volume: Evidence that disclosure costs affect the IPO decision," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 121-143.
    41. Balakrishnan, Karthik & Bartov, Eli & Faurel, Lucile, 2010. "Post loss/profit announcement drift," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 20-41, May.
    42. Berkman, Henk & Dimitrov, Valentin & Jain, Prem C. & Koch, Paul D. & Tice, Sheri, 2009. "Sell on the news: Differences of opinion, short-sales constraints, and returns around earnings announcements," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3), pages 376-399, June.
    43. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1997. "Industry costs of equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 153-193, February.
    44. Todd Houge & Tim Loughran & Gerry Suchanek & Xuemin Yan, 2001. "Divergence of Opinion, Uncertainty, and the Quality of Intitial Public Offerings," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 30(4), Winter.
    45. Ibbotson, Roger G., 1975. "Price performance of common stock new issues," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 235-272, September.
    46. Steven N. Kaplan & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Berk A. Sensoy, 2013. "The Effects of Stock Lending on Security Prices: An Experiment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(5), pages 1891-1936, October.
    47. Tim Loughran & Jay Ritter, 2004. "Why Has IPO Underpricing Changed Over Time?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 33(3), Fall.
    48. Miller, Edward M, 1977. "Risk, Uncertainty, and Divergence of Opinion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1151-1168, September.
    49. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R, 1995. "The New Issues Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 23-51, March.
    50. Duffie, Darrell & Garleanu, Nicolae & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2002. "Securities lending, shorting, and pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 307-339.
    51. Butler, Alexander W. & Keefe, Michael O'Connor & Kieschnick, Robert, 2014. "Robust determinants of IPO underpricing and their implications for IPO research," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 367-383.
    52. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    53. Richardson, Scott & Tuna, Irem & Wysocki, Peter, 2010. "Accounting anomalies and fundamental analysis: A review of recent research advances," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 410-454, December.
    54. Gibbs, Michael & Hao, (Grace) Qing, 2018. "Short selling around the expiration of IPO share lockups," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 30-43.
    55. Doukas, John A. & Kim, Chansog (Francis) & Pantzalis, Christos, 2006. "Divergence of Opinion and Equity Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(3), pages 573-606, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gatchev, Vladimir A. & Seth, Rama & Singh, Ajai & Vishwanatha, S.R., 2023. "Price bands and their effects on equity markets: Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Boulton, Thomas J. & Smart, Scott B. & Zutter, Chad J., 2020. "Worldwide short selling regulations and IPO underpricing," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    2. Feng, Xunan & Johansson, Anders C. & Wei, Dengxi, 2023. "Judging a book by its cover: Analysts and attention-driven price patterns in China's IPO market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Tanya Gulati & S. K. Bose & Supriyo Roy, 2017. "Short selling restrictions in 2005–2009 in Indian market and underpricing of initial public offerings," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(1), pages 116-135, January.
    4. Ikeda, Naoshi, 2023. "Optimism, divergence of investors’ opinions, and the long-run underperformance of IPOs," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    5. Beneish, M.D. & Lee, C.M.C. & Nichols, D.C., 2015. "In short supply: Short-sellers and stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 33-57.
    6. Switzer, Lorne N. & El Meslmani, Nabil & Zhai, Xinkai, 2022. "IPO performance and the size effect: Evidence for the US and Canada," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    7. Santos, Francisco, 2017. "IPO market timing with uncertain aftermarket retail demand," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 247-266.
    8. Jay R. Ritter & Ivo Welch, 2002. "A Review of IPO Activity, Pricing, and Allocations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1795-1828, August.
    9. Jank, Stephan & Roling, Christoph & Smajlbegovic, Esad, 2021. "Flying under the radar: The effects of short-sale disclosure rules on investor behavior and stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 209-233.
    10. Bostan, Ibrahim & Mian, G. Mujtaba, 2024. "Inventor CEOs and financing of innovation: Evidence from IPOs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    11. Alexander Ljungqvist & Vikram Nanda & Rajdeep Singh, 2006. "Hot Markets, Investor Sentiment, and IPO Pricing," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(4), pages 1667-1702, July.
    12. Richard J. Kish & Nandkumar Nayar & Wenlong Weng, 2012. "IPO pricing: a case of short-sale restrictions and divergent expectations," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(9), pages 1439-1451, November.
    13. Agathee, Ushad Subadar & Sannassee, Raja Vinesh & Brooks, Chris, 2012. "The underpricing of IPOs on the Stock Exchange of Mauritius," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 281-303.
    14. Kazunori Miwa & Satoshi Taguchi & Tatsushi Yamamoto, 2017. "Are IPOs “Overpriced?” Strategic Interactions between the Entrepreneur and the Underwriter," Discussion Paper Series DP2017-07, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    15. Takahiro Endo & Nidhi Srinivas & Yuki Tsuboyama, 2017. "The Role of Meta-organising in Legitimacy Recovery: The Case of Frozen Food Category in Japan," Discussion Paper Series DP2017-10, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    16. Jiang, Danling & Peterson, David R. & Doran, James S., 2014. "Short-sale constraints and the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle: An event study approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 36-59.
    17. Oehler, Andreas & Rummer, Marco & Smith, Peter N., 2004. "IPO Pricing and the Relative Importance of Investor Sentiment: Evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 26, University of Bamberg, Chair of Finance.
    18. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    19. Boehme, Rodney & Çolak, Gönül, 2012. "Primary market characteristics and secondary market frictions of stocks," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 286-327.
    20. Kim, Dongcheol & Lee, Inro & Na, Haejung, 2019. "Financial distress, short sale constraints, and mispricing," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 94-111.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:68:y:2022:i:1:p:608-634. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.