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Divergence Of Opinion And Long‐Term Performance Of Initial Public Offerings

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  • Yan Gao
  • Connie X. Mao
  • Rui Zhong

Abstract

Miller's hypothesis posits that divergence of opinion can lead to asset overvaluation and subsequent long‐term underperformance in markets (such as initial public offerings [IPOs]) with restricted short‐selling. Consistent with this hypothesis, we find that early‐market return volatility, a proxy for divergence of opinion, is negatively related to subsequent IPO long‐term abnormal returns. This relation holds after accounting for other factors that previous studies suggest affect long‐term abnormal returns for IPOs (including another proxy for divergence of opinion). Moreover, we find that this relation is stronger in IPO markets than in non‐IPO markets (where short‐selling restrictions are less stringent), again consistent with Miller's hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Yan Gao & Connie X. Mao & Rui Zhong, 2006. "Divergence Of Opinion And Long‐Term Performance Of Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 29(1), pages 113-129, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:29:y:2006:i:1:p:113-129
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-6803.2006.00169.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Dasilas, Apostolos & Leventis, Stergios, 2018. "The performance of European equity carve-outs," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 121-135.
    2. Chen, Honghui & Zheng, Minrong, 2021. "IPO underperformance and the idiosyncratic risk puzzle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    3. Hsuan-Chi Chen & Wen-Chung Guo, 2010. "Divergence of opinion and initial public offerings," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 59-79, January.
    4. Chan, Yue-Cheong, 2014. "How does retail sentiment affect IPO returns? Evidence from the internet bubble period," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 235-248.
    5. Wen-Chung Guo & Sy-Ming Guu & Ting-Yun Chang, 2011. "Equilibrium Information Acquisition, Prediction Abilities and Asset Prices," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 37(1), pages 89-111, January.
    6. Deepika Bagchee, 2009. "Investors Adjust Expectations Around Sell‐Side Analyst Revisions In Ipo Recommendations," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 32(1), pages 53-70, March.
    7. Wu, Qinqin & Hao, Ying & Lu, Jing, 2018. "Air pollution, stock returns, and trading activities in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 342-365.
    8. Md Hamid Uddin & Mahendra Raj, 2012. "Aftermarket Risk And Underpricing Of Initial Public Offers In The Arabian Gulf Countries: An Empirical Analysis," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 6(3), pages 123-138.
    9. Kelly Nianyun Cai & Xiaoquan Jiang & Hei Wai Lee, 2013. "Debt Ipo Waves, Investor Sentiment, Market Conditions, And Issue Quality," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 435-452, December.
    10. Ikeda, Naoshi, 2023. "Optimism, divergence of investors’ opinions, and the long-run underperformance of IPOs," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    11. Lu, Jing & Chou, Robin K., 2012. "Does the weather have impacts on returns and trading activities in order-driven stock markets? Evidence from China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 79-93.
    12. Smadar Siev, 2021. "The Rich Get Richer and the Poor Get Poorer: Social Media and the Post-IPO Behavior of Investors in Biotechnology Firms: The Relationship with Twitter Volume," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-17, September.
    13. Sung C. Bae & Kiyoung Chang & Hoje Jo, 2013. "Long-Run Stock and Operating Performance of Underwriter Warrants: Evidence from Seasoned Equity Offerings," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 473-501, December.
    14. Panos N. Patatoukas & Richard G. Sloan & Annika Yu Wang, 2022. "Valuation Uncertainty and Short-Sales Constraints: Evidence from the IPO Aftermarket," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(1), pages 608-634, January.

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