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Evoking Information in Probability Assessment: Knowledge Maps and Reasoning-Based Directed Questions

Author

Listed:
  • Glenn J. Browne

    (Department of Information Systems, University of Maryland, Baltimore, Maryland 21228)

  • Shawn P. Curley

    (Carlson School of Management, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota 55455)

  • P. George Benson

    (Graduate School of Management, Rutgers University, Newark, New Jersey 07102)

Abstract

To assess probabilities in decision analysis, and for decision making in general, decision makers must evoke and apply relevant information. Decision analysts have developed a variety of structuring tools to aid decision makers in these tasks, including influence diagrams and knowledge maps. However, despite their pervasive use in practice, there have been no reported empirical tests of these tools. One goal of the present research was to provide an empirical test of the evocative knowledge map methodology. Second, a theoretical analysis of probability assessment was used to develop a new prescriptive elicitation technique. This technique uses a theoretically-grounded set of directed questions to help decision makers evoke information for probability assessment. Experimental results showed that both the knowledge map and the new directed questions methodology elicited a higher quantity and quality of information from decision makers engaged in probability assessment tasks than did a control condition. Further, the information elicited by the two techniques was qualitatively different, suggesting that the two methods might profitably be used as complementary elicitation techniques.

Suggested Citation

  • Glenn J. Browne & Shawn P. Curley & P. George Benson, 1997. "Evoking Information in Probability Assessment: Knowledge Maps and Reasoning-Based Directed Questions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(1), pages 1-14, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:43:y:1997:i:1:p:1-14
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.43.1.1
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Browne, Glenn J. & Pitts, Mitzi G., 2004. "Stopping rule use during information search in design problems," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 208-224, November.
    2. Archana Singh & Nehajoan Panackal, 2019. "A Study of Knowledge Management in Education for Research Sustainability–An Overview," Indian Journal of Commerce and Management Studies, Educational Research Multimedia & Publications,India, vol. 10(2), pages 01-07, May.
    3. Axel v. Werder, 1999. "Argumentation Rationality of Management Decisions," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 10(5), pages 672-690, October.
    4. Curley, Shawn P. & Browne, Glenn J., 2001. "Normative and Descriptive Analyses of Simpson's Paradox in Decision Making," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 308-333, March.
    5. Byungun Yoon & Sungjoo Lee & Gwanghee Lee, 2010. "Development and application of a keyword-based knowledge map for effective R&D planning," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 85(3), pages 803-820, December.
    6. Cain, J. D. & Jinapala, K. & Makin, I. W. & Somaratna, P. G. & Ariyaratna, B. R. & Perera, L. R., 2003. "Participatory decision support for agricultural management. A case study from Sri Lanka," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 457-482, May.
    7. Browne, Glenn J. & Curley, Shawn P. & Benson, P. George, 1999. "The Effects of Subject-Defined Categories on Judgmental Accuracy in Confidence Assessment Tasks, , , , , , , , ," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 134-154, November.
    8. Jeremy Cain & Charles Batchelor & Dominic Waughray, 1999. "Belief Networks: A Framework for the Participatory Development of Natural Resource Management Strategies," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 123-133, June.
    9. Talaulicar, Till & Grundei, Jens & Werder, Axel v., 2005. "Strategic decision making in start-ups: the effect of top management team organization and processes on speed and comprehensiveness," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 519-541, July.

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