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A Stochastic Dynamic Nash Game Analysis of Policies for Managing the Strategic Petroleum Reserves of Consuming Nations

Author

Listed:
  • Frederic H. Murphy

    (School of Business Administration, Temple University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19122)

  • Michael A. Toman

    (Resources for the Future)

  • Howard J. Weiss

    (School of Business Administration, Temple University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19122)

Abstract

In this paper we present a Nash dynamic game model of interactions among oil inventory and tariff policies for oil importing countries. The inventory policies consist of the rates for building up and drawing down strategic oil reserves, while the tariff policies consist of setting tariffs as a function of the state of the world oil market. The model represents a stochastic game in which countries are grouped into two players, where each player in the game chooses its individual policies to maximize expected social welfare. We use the model to present empirical results about the sizes of the stockpiles as a function of disruption probabilities, tariff policies and cooperation versus noncooperation between nations. In addition to results regarding the build-up and draw down rates as a function of the amount of disruption or probability of future disruption our central conclusion is that build-up and drawdown policies are essentially the same with or without international cooperation, due to the current inventory limits on U.S. and Foreign Strategic Petroleum Reserves.

Suggested Citation

  • Frederic H. Murphy & Michael A. Toman & Howard J. Weiss, 1987. "A Stochastic Dynamic Nash Game Analysis of Policies for Managing the Strategic Petroleum Reserves of Consuming Nations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(4), pages 484-499, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:33:y:1987:i:4:p:484-499
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.33.4.484
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ibrahim Abada & Olivier Massol, 2010. "Security of supply in the European Gas Market A model-based analysis," EconomiX Working Papers 2010-13, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    2. Christophe Gouel, 2012. "Agricultural Price Instability: A Survey Of Competing Explanations And Remedies," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 129-156, February.
    3. Zhang, Xiao-Bing & Fan, Ying & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2009. "A model based on stochastic dynamic programming for determining China's optimal strategic petroleum reserve policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4397-4406, November.
    4. Bai, Y. & Zhou, D.Q. & Zhou, P., 2012. "Modelling and analysis of oil import tariff and stockpile policies for coping with supply disruptions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 84-90.
    5. Abada, Ibrahim & Massol, Olivier, 2011. "Security of supply and retail competition in the European gas market.: Some model-based insights," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 4077-4088, July.
    6. Zhang, Xiao-Bing & Qin, Ping & Chen, Xiaolan, 2017. "Strategic oil stockpiling for energy security: The case of China and India," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 253-260.
    7. Xie, Nan & Yan, Zhijun & Zhou, Yi & Huang, Wenjun, 2017. "China's optimal stockpiling policies in the context of new oil price trend," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 332-340.
    8. Fan, Ying & Zhang, Xiao-Bing, 2010. "Modelling the strategic petroleum reserves of China and India by a stochastic dynamic game," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 505-519, July.
    9. Zhang, Zhimin & Elshkaki, Ayman, 2022. "An analysis of the supply-side factors of geological exploration in China based on provincial panel data between 1999 and 2017," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    10. Wu, Gang & Fan, Ying & Liu, Lan-Cui & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2008. "An empirical analysis of the dynamic programming model of stockpile acquisition strategies for China's strategic petroleum reserve," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1470-1478, April.
    11. Bai, Yang & Dahl, Carol, 2018. "Evaluating the management of U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve during oil disruptions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 25-38.
    12. Razek, Noha & Galvani, Valentina & Rajan, Surya & McQuinn, Brian, 2023. "Can U.S. strategic petroleum reserves calm a tight market exacerbated by the Russia–Ukraine conflict?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    13. Huanan Li & Xin Chen, 2016. "Dynamic game analysis on China’s public and private oil stockpiles," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(1), pages 715-723, October.
    14. Bai, Y. & Zhou, D.Q. & Zhou, P. & Zhang, L.B., 2012. "Optimal path for China's strategic petroleum reserve: A dynamic programming analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1058-1063.
    15. repec:cty:dpaper:1458 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. repec:cty:dpaper:10.1016/j.enpol.2011.03.043 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Zhang, Xiao-Bing & Zheng, Xinye & Qin, Ping & Xie, Lunyu, 2018. "Oil import tariff game for energy security: The case of China and India," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 255-262.
    18. Lu, Shibao & Lian, Zhiduan & Sun, Huaping & Wu, Xiaohe & Bai, Xiao & Wang, Congcong, 2021. "Simulating trans-boundary watershed water resources conflict," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    19. Chen, Xin & Mu, Hailin & Li, Huanan & Gui, Shusen, 2014. "Using stockpile delegation to improve China׳s strategic oil policy: A multi-dimension stochastic dynamic programming approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 28-42.
    20. Mehran Homayounfar & Arman Ganji & C. Martinez, 2011. "A Novel Solution for Stochastic Dynamic Game of Water Allocation from a Reservoir Using Collocation Method," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(13), pages 3427-3444, October.
    21. Wu, Gang & Wei, Yi-Ming & Nielsen, Chris & Lu, Xi & McElroy, Michael B., 2012. "A dynamic programming model of China's strategic petroleum reserve: General strategy and the effect of emergencies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1234-1243.
    22. Zhang, Xiao-Bing, 2014. "Optimal strategic oil stockpiling and import tariffs: The case of China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 463-474.
    23. A. Ganji & D. Khalili & M. Karamouz & K. Ponnambalam & M. Javan, 2008. "A Fuzzy Stochastic Dynamic Nash Game Analysis of Policies for Managing Water Allocation in a Reservoir System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(1), pages 51-66, January.

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