IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormksc/v5y1986i3p219-244.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Multivariate Polya Model of Brand Choice and Purchase Incidence

Author

Listed:
  • Udo Wagner

    (University of Economics, Vienna)

  • Alfred Taudes

    (University of Economics, Vienna)

Abstract

In this paper we develop an integrated stochastic model of purchase timing and brand selection which incorporates the influence of marketing mix variables, seasonality and trend, and also allows for various individual choice mechanisms. Our approach rests on the assumptions of a zero-order choice process, a Poisson timing process and purchase rates following a multivariate Gamma Distribution over the population, the scale parameters of which vary according to marketing activities and time. The resulting model is a , and the distribution of brand choice probabilities turns out to be a . Thus, most currently used zero-order models can be considered to be special cases of this approach. Furthermore, we derive a number of market diagnostics which provide insights into market structure and demonstrate the model's use for marketing strategy simulation. Based on extensive testing of the underlying hypotheses we finally validate the model using empirical data and show that it fits the market in question.

Suggested Citation

  • Udo Wagner & Alfred Taudes, 1986. "A Multivariate Polya Model of Brand Choice and Purchase Incidence," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 5(3), pages 219-244.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:5:y:1986:i:3:p:219-244
    DOI: 10.1287/mksc.5.3.219
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mksc.5.3.219
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mksc.5.3.219?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Juin-Kuan Chong & Teck-Hua Ho & Christopher S. Tang, 2001. "A Modeling Framework for Category Assortment Planning," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 3(3), pages 191-210, January.
    2. Bruno J.D. Jacobs & Bas Donkers & Dennis Fok, 2016. "Model-Based Purchase Predictions for Large Assortments," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(3), pages 389-404, May.
    3. Wu, Couchen & Chen, Hsiu-Li, 2000. "Counting your customers: Compounding customer's in-store decisions, interpurchase time and repurchasing behavior," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 109-119, November.
    4. Alfred Taudes & Martin Natter & Olivier Reimann, 2017. "Udo Wagner zum 65. Geburtstag," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 69(4), pages 477-482, November.
    5. Park, Changwon & Senauer, Benjamin, 1996. "Estimation Of Household Brand-Size Choice Models For Spaghetti Products With Scanner Data," Working Papers 14336, University of Minnesota, The Food Industry Center.
    6. Trinh, Giang & Lam, Desmond, 2016. "Understanding the attendance at cultural venues and events with stochastic preference models," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(9), pages 3538-3544.
    7. Park, Chang Hee & Park, Young-Hoon & Schweidel, David A., 2014. "A multi-category customer base analysis," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 266-279.
    8. Ehrenberg, Andrew S. C. & Uncles, Mark D. & Goodhardt, Gerald J., 2004. "Understanding brand performance measures: using Dirichlet benchmarks," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 57(12), pages 1307-1325, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:5:y:1986:i:3:p:219-244. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.