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A Viral Branching Model for Predicting the Spread of Electronic Word of Mouth

Author

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  • Ralf van der Lans

    (Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University, 3000 DR Rotterdam, The Netherlands)

  • Gerrit van Bruggen

    (Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University, 3000 DR Rotterdam, The Netherlands)

  • Jehoshua Eliashberg

    (The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104)

  • Berend Wierenga

    (Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University, 3000 DR Rotterdam, The Netherlands)

Abstract

In a viral marketing campaign, an organization develops a marketing message and encourages customers to forward this message to their contacts. Despite its increasing popularity, there are no models yet that help marketers to predict how many customers a viral marketing campaign will reach and how marketers can influence this process through marketing activities. This paper develops such a model using the theory of branching processes. The proposed viral branching model allows customers to participate in a viral marketing campaign by (1) opening a seeding e-mail from the organization, (2) opening a viral e-mail from a friend, and (3) responding to other marketing activities such as banners and offline advertising. The model parameters are estimated using individual-level data that become available in large quantities in the early stages of viral marketing campaigns. The viral branching model is applied to an actual viral marketing campaign in which over 200,000 customers participated during a six-week period. The results show that the model quickly predicts the actual reach of the campaign. In addition, the model proves to be a valuable tool to evaluate alternative what-if scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Ralf van der Lans & Gerrit van Bruggen & Jehoshua Eliashberg & Berend Wierenga, 2010. "A Viral Branching Model for Predicting the Spread of Electronic Word of Mouth," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(2), pages 348-365, 03-04.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:29:y:2010:i:2:p:348-365
    DOI: 10.1287/mksc.1090.0520
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    2. Sinan Aral & Dylan Walker, 2011. "Creating Social Contagion Through Viral Product Design: A Randomized Trial of Peer Influence in Networks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(9), pages 1623-1639, February.
    3. Shehu, Edlira & Bijmolt, Tammo H.A. & Clement, Michel, 2016. "Effects of Likeability Dynamics on Consumers' Intention to Share Online Video Advertisements," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 27-43.
    4. Wakefield, Lane T. & Bennett, Gregg, 2018. "Sports fan experience: Electronic word-of-mouth in ephemeral social media," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 147-159.
    5. Baxendale, Shane & Macdonald, Emma K. & Wilson, Hugh N., 2015. "The Impact of Different Touchpoints on Brand Consideration," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 235-253.
    6. Narisa Zhao & Hui Li, 2020. "How can social commerce be boosted? The impact of consumer behaviors on the information dissemination mechanism in a social commerce network," Electronic Commerce Research, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 833-856, December.
    7. Olivier Toubia & Jacob Goldenberg & Rosanna Garcia, 2014. "Improving Penetration Forecasts Using Social Interactions Data," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(12), pages 3049-3066, December.
    8. Pescher, Christian & Reichhart, Philipp & Spann, Martin, 2014. "Consumer Decision-making Processes in Mobile Viral Marketing Campaigns," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 43-54.
    9. Gensler, Sonja & Völckner, Franziska & Liu-Thompkins, Yuping & Wiertz, Caroline, 2013. "Managing Brands in the Social Media Environment," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 242-256.
    10. Hart, Andrew & Kerrigan, Finola & vom Lehn, Dirk, 2016. "Experiencing film: Subjective personal introspection and popular film consumption," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 375-391.
    11. Tavasoli, Ali & Shakeri, Heman & Ardjmand, Ehsan & Young, William A., 2021. "Incentive rate determination in viral marketing," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 289(3), pages 1169-1187.
    12. Shareef, Mahmud Akhter & Mukerji, Bhasker & Alryalat, Mohammad Abdallah Ali & Wright, Angela & Dwivedi, Yogesh K., 2018. "Advertisements on Facebook: Identifying the persuasive elements in the development of positive attitudes in consumers," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 258-268.
    13. Fine F. Leung & Flora F. Gu & Robert W. Palmatier, 2022. "Online influencer marketing," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 226-251, March.
    14. Sarah Gelper & Ralf van der Lans & Gerrit van Bruggen, 2021. "Competition for Attention in Online Social Networks: Implications for Seeding Strategies," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(2), pages 1026-1047, February.
    15. Nguyen, Cathy & Romaniuk, Jenni, 2014. "Pass it on: A framework for classifying the content of word of mouth," Australasian marketing journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 117-124.
    16. VanMeter, Rebecca A. & Grisaffe, Douglas B. & Chonko, Lawrence B., 2015. "Of “Likes” and “Pins”: The Effects of Consumers' Attachment to Social Media," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 70-88.
    17. Nelson-Field, Karen & Riebe, Erica & Newstead, Kellie, 2013. "The emotions that drive viral video," Australasian marketing journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 205-211.
    18. Xiao Han & Leye Wang & Weiguo Fan, 2023. "Cost-Effective Social Media Influencer Marketing," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 35(1), pages 138-157, January.
    19. Donthu, Naveen & Kumar, Satish & Pandey, Neeraj & Pandey, Nitesh & Mishra, Akanksha, 2021. "Mapping the electronic word-of-mouth (eWOM) research: A systematic review and bibliometric analysis," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 758-773.
    20. Mitchell J. Lovett & Renana Peres & Linli Xu, 2019. "Can your advertising really buy earned impressions? The effect of brand advertising on word of mouth," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 215-255, September.
    21. Koch, Oliver Francis & Benlian, Alexander, 2015. "Promotional Tactics for Online Viral Marketing Campaigns: How Scarcity and Personalization Affect Seed Stage Referrals," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 37-52.
    22. Guenther, Miriam & Guenther, Peter, 2021. "The complex firm financial effects of customer satisfaction improvements," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 639-662.
    23. Sha Yang & Yi Zhao & Ravi Dhar, 2010. "Modeling the Underreporting Bias in Panel Survey Data," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(3), pages 525-539, 05-06.
    24. Rutsaert, Pieter & Pieniak, Zuzanna & Regan, Áine & McConnon, Áine & Kuttschreuter, Margôt & Lores, Mònica & Lozano, Natàlia & Guzzon, Antonella & Santare, Dace & Verbeke, Wim, 2014. "Social media as a useful tool in food risk and benefit communication? A strategic orientation approach," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 84-93.
    25. Xi Chen & Ralf van der Lans & Michael Trusov, 2021. "Efficient Estimation of Network Games of Incomplete Information: Application to Large Online Social Networks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7575-7598, December.

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