IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/orijoc/v31y2019i2p347-366.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling and Simulation of Nonstationary Non-Poisson Arrival Processes

Author

Listed:
  • Ran Liu

    (SAS Institute, Cary, North Carolina 27513)

  • Michael E. Kuhl

    (Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rochester, New York 14623)

  • Yunan Liu

    (Edward P. Fitts Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina 27695-7906)

  • James R. Wilson

    (Edward P. Fitts Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina 27695-7906)

Abstract

We develop CIATA, a combined inversion-and-thinning approach for modeling a nonstationary non-Poisson process (NNPP), where the target arrival process is described by a given rate function and its associated mean-value function together with a given asymptotic variance-to-mean (dispersion) ratio. CIATA is based on the following: (i) a piecewise-constant majorizing rate function that closely approximates the given rate function from above; (ii) the associated piecewise-linear majorizing mean-value function; and (iii) an equilibrium renewal process (ERP) whose noninitial interrenewal times have mean 1 and variance equal to the given dispersion ratio. Transforming the ERP by the inverse of the majorizing mean-value function yields a majorizing NNPP whose arrival epochs are then thinned to deliver an NNPP having the specified properties. CIATA-Ph is a simulation algorithm that implements this approach based on an ERP whose noninitial interrenewal times have a phase-type distribution. Supporting theorems establish that CIATA-Ph can generate an NNPP having the desired mean-value function and asymptotic dispersion ratio. Extensive simulation experiments substantiated the effectiveness of CIATA-Ph with various rate functions and dispersion ratios. In all cases, we found approximate convergence of the dispersion ratio to its asymptotic value beyond a relatively short warm-up period.

Suggested Citation

  • Ran Liu & Michael E. Kuhl & Yunan Liu & James R. Wilson, 2019. "Modeling and Simulation of Nonstationary Non-Poisson Arrival Processes," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 31(2), pages 347-366, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:orijoc:v:31:y:2019:i:2:p:347-366
    DOI: 10.1287/ijoc.2018.0828
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1287/ijoc.2018.0828
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/ijoc.2018.0828?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Athanassios N. Avramidis & Alexandre Deslauriers & Pierre L'Ecuyer, 2004. "Modeling Daily Arrivals to a Telephone Call Center," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(7), pages 896-908, July.
    2. William A. Massey & Ward Whitt, 1994. "Unstable Asymptomatics for Nonstationary Queues," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 19(2), pages 267-291, May.
    3. Yunan Liu & Ward Whitt, 2012. "Stabilizing Customer Abandonment in Many-Server Queues with Time-Varying Arrivals," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 60(6), pages 1551-1564, December.
    4. Liu, Yunan & Whitt, Ward, 2017. "Stabilizing performance in a service system with time-varying arrivals and customer feedback," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 256(2), pages 473-486.
    5. Ira Gerhardt & Barry L. Nelson, 2009. "Transforming Renewal Processes for Simulation of Nonstationary Arrival Processes," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 21(4), pages 630-640, November.
    6. P. A. W Lewis & G. S. Shedler, 1979. "Simulation of nonhomogeneous poisson processes by thinning," Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(3), pages 403-413, September.
    7. Ibrahim, Rouba & Ye, Han & L’Ecuyer, Pierre & Shen, Haipeng, 2016. "Modeling and forecasting call center arrivals: A literature survey and a case study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 865-874.
    8. Song-Hee Kim & Ward Whitt, 2014. "Are Call Center and Hospital Arrivals Well Modeled by Nonhomogeneous Poisson Processes?," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 16(3), pages 464-480, July.
    9. Geurt Jongbloed & Ger Koole, 2001. "Managing uncertainty in call centres using Poisson mixtures," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(4), pages 307-318, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ward Whitt & Jingtong Zhao, 2017. "Many‐server loss models with non‐poisson time‐varying arrivals," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(3), pages 177-202, April.
    2. Song‐Hee Kim & Ward Whitt, 2014. "Choosing arrival process models for service systems: Tests of a nonhomogeneous Poisson process," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 61(1), pages 66-90, February.
    3. Ma, Ni & Whitt, Ward, 2016. "Efficient simulation of non-Poisson non-stationary point processes to study queueing approximations," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 202-207.
    4. Heemskerk, M. & Mandjes, M. & Mathijsen, B., 2022. "Staffing for many-server systems facing non-standard arrival processes," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 296(3), pages 900-913.
    5. Xu Sun & Yunan Liu, 2021. "Staffing many‐server queues with autoregressive inputs," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(3), pages 312-326, April.
    6. Theresa Maria Rausch & Tobias Albrecht & Daniel Baier, 2022. "Beyond the beaten paths of forecasting call center arrivals: on the use of dynamic harmonic regression with predictor variables," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 92(4), pages 675-706, May.
    7. Yongkyu Cho & Young Myoung Ko, 2020. "Stabilizing the virtual response time in single-server processor sharing queues with slowly time-varying arrival rates," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 293(1), pages 27-55, October.
    8. Notz, Pascal M. & Wolf, Peter K. & Pibernik, Richard, 2023. "Prescriptive analytics for a multi-shift staffing problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 305(2), pages 887-901.
    9. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    10. Ibrahim, Rouba & Ye, Han & L’Ecuyer, Pierre & Shen, Haipeng, 2016. "Modeling and forecasting call center arrivals: A literature survey and a case study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 865-874.
    11. Yunan Liu & Ward Whitt & Yao Yu, 2016. "Approximations for heavily loaded G/GI/n + GI queues," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 63(3), pages 187-217, April.
    12. Noah Gans & Haipeng Shen & Yong-Pin Zhou & Nikolay Korolev & Alan McCord & Herbert Ristock, 2015. "Parametric Forecasting and Stochastic Programming Models for Call-Center Workforce Scheduling," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 17(4), pages 571-588, October.
    13. Barrow, Devon & Kourentzes, Nikolaos, 2018. "The impact of special days in call arrivals forecasting: A neural network approach to modelling special days," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(3), pages 967-977.
    14. Pei, Zhi & Dai, Xu & Yuan, Yilun & Du, Rui & Liu, Changchun, 2021. "Managing price and fleet size for courier service with shared drones," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    15. Rouba Ibrahim & Pierre L'Ecuyer, 2013. "Forecasting Call Center Arrivals: Fixed-Effects, Mixed-Effects, and Bivariate Models," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 15(1), pages 72-85, May.
    16. Alex Roubos & Ger Koole & Raik Stolletz, 2012. "Service-Level Variability of Inbound Call Centers," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 14(3), pages 402-413, July.
    17. Niyirora, Jerome & Zhuang, Jun, 2017. "Fluid approximations and control of queues in emergency departments," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 261(3), pages 1110-1124.
    18. Andrea Bastianin & Marzio Galeotti & Matteo Manera, 2019. "Statistical and economic evaluation of time series models for forecasting arrivals at call centers," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 923-955, September.
    19. James W. Taylor, 2012. "Density Forecasting of Intraday Call Center Arrivals Using Models Based on Exponential Smoothing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(3), pages 534-549, March.
    20. Albrecht, Tobias & Rausch, Theresa Maria & Derra, Nicholas Daniel, 2021. "Call me maybe: Methods and practical implementation of artificial intelligence in call center arrivals’ forecasting," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 267-278.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:orijoc:v:31:y:2019:i:2:p:347-366. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.