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Cost Effectiveness of On-Site Chlorine Generation for Chlorine Truck Attack Prevention

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  • Anthony M. Barrett

    (ABS Consulting, Arlington, Virginia 22209)

Abstract

A chlorine tank truck attack could cause thousands of fatalities. As a means of preventing chlorine truck attacks, I consider the on-site generation of chlorine or hypochlorite at all U.S. facilities currently receiving chlorine by truck. I develop and apply mathematical models to estimate the amount of chlorine shipped by truck in the United States and the cost of generating chlorine at each facility. I then calculate system costs, as well as cost effectiveness in terms of expected cost per death avoided. The median estimated amount of chlorine trucked in the United States is 500 thousand tons/year, with 80% going to water and wastewater treatment. The median net cost of on-site generation totals $800 million/year for the United States as a whole. On-site generation would pass a cost-effectiveness test requiring median estimated cost per death averted to be $6.5 million or less if the investment reduces the annual probability of a chlorine truck attack in the United States by at least 0.03, depending on the chlorine attack simulation dose--response model and other factors. The expected value of the reduction of fatality risk from truck accidents causing chlorine releases would be $8 million per year, too low for cost effectiveness if that is the only benefit of on-site chlorine generation.

Suggested Citation

  • Anthony M. Barrett, 2010. "Cost Effectiveness of On-Site Chlorine Generation for Chlorine Truck Attack Prevention," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(4), pages 366-377, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ordeca:v:7:y:2010:i:4:p:366-377
    DOI: 10.1287/deca.1100.0186
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    Cited by:

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      • L. Robin Keller & Manel Baucells & John C. Butler & Philippe Delquié & Jason R. W. Merrick & Gregory S. Parnell & Ahti Salo, 2008. "From the Editors..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 5(4), pages 173-176, December.
      • L. Robin Keller & Manel Baucells & John C. Butler & Philippe Delquié & Jason R. W. Merrick & Gregory S. Parnell & Ahti Salo, 2009. "From the Editors ..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 6(4), pages 199-201, December.
    4. Xiaojun (Gene) Shan & Jun Zhuang, 2014. "Modeling Credible Retaliation Threats in Deterring the Smuggling of Nuclear Weapons Using Partial Inspection---A Three-Stage Game," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 11(1), pages 43-62, March.
    5. Naraphorn Haphuriwat & Vicki M. Bier & Henry H. Willis, 2011. "Deterring the Smuggling of Nuclear Weapons in Container Freight Through Detection and Retaliation," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(2), pages 88-102, June.
    6. L. Robin Keller, 2012. "From the Editor---Decisions over Time (Exploding Offers or Purchase Regret), in Game Settings (Embedded Nash Bargaining or Adversarial Games), and in Influence Diagrams," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(1), pages 1-5, March.
    7. L. Robin Keller & Kelly M. Kophazi, 2012. "From the Editors ---Copulas, Group Preferences, Multilevel Defenders, Sharing Rewards, and Communicating Analytics," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 213-218, September.
    8. L. Robin Keller & Kelly M. Kophazi, 2011. "From the Editors---Deterrence, Multiattribute Utility, and Probability and Bayes' Updating," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(2), pages 83-87, June.
    9. Rakesh K. Sarin & L. Robin Keller, 2013. "From the Editors: Probability Approximations, Anti-Terrorism Strategy, and Bull's-Eye Display for Performance Feedback," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(1), pages 1-5, March.
    10. L. Robin Keller & Ali Abbas & J. Eric Bickel & Vicki M. Bier & David V. Budescu & John C. Butler & Philippe Delquié & Kenneth C. Lichtendahl & Jason R. W. Merrick & Ahti Salo & George Wu, 2011. "From the Editors ---Probability Scoring Rules, Ambiguity, Multiattribute Terrorist Utility, and Sensitivity Analysis," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(4), pages 251-255, December.
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