IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ordeca/v7y2010i4p366-377.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Cost Effectiveness of On-Site Chlorine Generation for Chlorine Truck Attack Prevention

Author

Listed:
  • Anthony M. Barrett

    (ABS Consulting, Arlington, Virginia 22209)

Abstract

A chlorine tank truck attack could cause thousands of fatalities. As a means of preventing chlorine truck attacks, I consider the on-site generation of chlorine or hypochlorite at all U.S. facilities currently receiving chlorine by truck. I develop and apply mathematical models to estimate the amount of chlorine shipped by truck in the United States and the cost of generating chlorine at each facility. I then calculate system costs, as well as cost effectiveness in terms of expected cost per death avoided. The median estimated amount of chlorine trucked in the United States is 500 thousand tons/year, with 80% going to water and wastewater treatment. The median net cost of on-site generation totals $800 million/year for the United States as a whole. On-site generation would pass a cost-effectiveness test requiring median estimated cost per death averted to be $6.5 million or less if the investment reduces the annual probability of a chlorine truck attack in the United States by at least 0.03, depending on the chlorine attack simulation dose--response model and other factors. The expected value of the reduction of fatality risk from truck accidents causing chlorine releases would be $8 million per year, too low for cost effectiveness if that is the only benefit of on-site chlorine generation.

Suggested Citation

  • Anthony M. Barrett, 2010. "Cost Effectiveness of On-Site Chlorine Generation for Chlorine Truck Attack Prevention," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(4), pages 366-377, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ordeca:v:7:y:2010:i:4:p:366-377
    DOI: 10.1287/deca.1100.0186
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/deca.1100.0186
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/deca.1100.0186?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Farrow Scott & Shapiro Stuart, 2009. "The Benefit-Cost Analysis of Security Focused Regulations," Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-22, April.
    2. Robinson Lisa A & Hammitt James K. & Aldy Joseph E. & Krupnick Alan & Baxter Jennifer, 2010. "Valuing the Risk of Death from Terrorist Attacks," Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-27, February.
    3. Scott Farrow, 2007. "The Economics Of Homeland Security Expenditures: Foundational Expected Cost‐Effectiveness Approaches," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 25(1), pages 14-26, January.
    4. Elizabeth A. Casman & M. Granger Morgan & Hadi Dowlatabadi, 1999. "Mixed Levels of Uncertainty in Complex Policy Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(1), pages 33-42, February.
    5. Detlof von Winterfeldt & Terrence M. O'Sullivan, 2006. "Should We Protect Commercial Airplanes Against Surface-to-Air Missile Attacks by Terrorists?," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 3(2), pages 63-75, June.
    6. Lakdawalla, Darius & Zanjani, George, 2005. "Insurance, self-protection, and the economics of terrorism," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(9-10), pages 1891-1905, September.
    7. Vicki M. Bier & Louis A. Cox & M. Naceur Azaiez, 2009. "Why Both Game Theory and Reliability Theory Are Important in Defending Infrastructure against Intelligent Attacks," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Vicki M. M. Bier & M. Naceur Azaiez (ed.), Game Theoretic Risk Analysis of Security Threats, chapter 1, pages 1-11, Springer.
    8. Kunreuther, Howard & Heal, Geoffrey, 2003. "Interdependent Security," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 26(2-3), pages 231-249, March-May.
    9. Lisa A. Robinson, 2007. "Policy Monitor How US Government Agencies Value Mortality Risk Reductions," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 1(2), pages 283-299, Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jason R. W. Merrick & Fabrizio Ruggeri & Refik Soyer & L. Robin Keller, 2012. "From the Editors---Games and Decisions in Reliability and Risk," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(2), pages 81-85, June.
    2. David J. Caswell & Ronald A. Howard & M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell, 2011. "Analysis of National Strategies to Counter a Country's Nuclear Weapons Program," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(1), pages 30-45, March.
    3. L. Robin Keller & Ali Abbas & Manel Baucells & Vicki M. Bier & David Budescu & John C. Butler & Philippe Delquié & Jason R. W. Merrick & Ahti Salo & George Wu, 2010. "From the Editors..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(4), pages 327-330, December.
      • L. Robin Keller & Manel Baucells & Kevin F. McCardle & Gregory S. Parnell & Ahti Salo, 2007. "From the Editors..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 4(4), pages 173-175, December.
      • L. Robin Keller & Manel Baucells & John C. Butler & Philippe Delquié & Jason R. W. Merrick & Gregory S. Parnell & Ahti Salo, 2008. "From the Editors..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 5(4), pages 173-176, December.
      • L. Robin Keller & Manel Baucells & John C. Butler & Philippe Delquié & Jason R. W. Merrick & Gregory S. Parnell & Ahti Salo, 2009. "From the Editors ..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 6(4), pages 199-201, December.
    4. Xiaojun (Gene) Shan & Jun Zhuang, 2014. "Modeling Credible Retaliation Threats in Deterring the Smuggling of Nuclear Weapons Using Partial Inspection---A Three-Stage Game," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 11(1), pages 43-62, March.
    5. Naraphorn Haphuriwat & Vicki M. Bier & Henry H. Willis, 2011. "Deterring the Smuggling of Nuclear Weapons in Container Freight Through Detection and Retaliation," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(2), pages 88-102, June.
    6. L. Robin Keller, 2012. "From the Editor---Decisions over Time (Exploding Offers or Purchase Regret), in Game Settings (Embedded Nash Bargaining or Adversarial Games), and in Influence Diagrams," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(1), pages 1-5, March.
    7. L. Robin Keller & Kelly M. Kophazi, 2012. "From the Editors ---Copulas, Group Preferences, Multilevel Defenders, Sharing Rewards, and Communicating Analytics," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 213-218, September.
    8. L. Robin Keller & Kelly M. Kophazi, 2011. "From the Editors---Deterrence, Multiattribute Utility, and Probability and Bayes' Updating," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(2), pages 83-87, June.
    9. Rakesh K. Sarin & L. Robin Keller, 2013. "From the Editors: Probability Approximations, Anti-Terrorism Strategy, and Bull's-Eye Display for Performance Feedback," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(1), pages 1-5, March.
    10. L. Robin Keller & Ali Abbas & J. Eric Bickel & Vicki M. Bier & David V. Budescu & John C. Butler & Philippe Delquié & Kenneth C. Lichtendahl & Jason R. W. Merrick & Ahti Salo & George Wu, 2011. "From the Editors ---Probability Scoring Rules, Ambiguity, Multiattribute Terrorist Utility, and Sensitivity Analysis," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(4), pages 251-255, December.
    11. Kjell Hausken & Jun Zhuang, 2011. "Governments' and Terrorists' Defense and Attack in a T -Period Game," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(1), pages 46-70, March.
    12. L. Robin Keller, 2011. "Investment and Defense Strategies, Heuristics, and Games: From the Editor ..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(1), pages 1-3, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mark G. Stewart & John Mueller, 2013. "Terrorism Risks and Cost‐Benefit Analysis of Aviation Security," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(5), pages 893-908, May.
    2. Vicki Bier & Santiago Oliveros & Larry Samuelson, 2007. "Choosing What to Protect: Strategic Defensive Allocation against an Unknown Attacker," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 9(4), pages 563-587, August.
    3. Jun Zhuang & Vicki M. Bier, 2007. "Balancing Terrorism and Natural Disasters---Defensive Strategy with Endogenous Attacker Effort," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 55(5), pages 976-991, October.
    4. Scotton Carol R., 2013. "New risk rates, inter-industry differentials and the magnitude of VSL estimates," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 39-80, March.
    5. Ralph L. Keeney, 2007. "Modeling Values for Anti‐Terrorism Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(3), pages 585-596, June.
    6. Geoffrey Heal & Howard Kunreuther, 2007. "Modeling Interdependent Risks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(3), pages 621-634, June.
    7. Lisa A. Robinson & James K. Hammitt, 2015. "Research Synthesis and the Value per Statistical Life," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(6), pages 1086-1100, June.
    8. Darius Lakdawalla & Eric Talley, 2006. "Optimal Liability for Terrorism," NBER Working Papers 12578, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Jenelius, Erik & Westin, Jonas & Holmgren, Åke J., 2010. "Critical infrastructure protection under imperfect attacker perception," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 16-26.
    10. Kevin Boyle & Sapna Kaul & Ali Hashemi & Xiaoshu Li, 2015. "Applicability of benefit transfers for evaluation of homeland security counterterrorism measures," Chapters, in: Carol Mansfield & V. K. Smith (ed.), Benefit–Cost Analyses for Security Policies, chapter 10, pages 225-253, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Tim Lohse & Julio R. Robledo & Ulrich Schmidt, 2012. "Self‐Insurance and Self‐Protection as Public Goods," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 79(1), pages 57-76, March.
    12. Jason Merrick & Gregory S. Parnell, 2011. "A Comparative Analysis of PRA and Intelligent Adversary Methods for Counterterrorism Risk Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(9), pages 1488-1510, September.
    13. Dogucan Mazicioglu & Jason R. W. Merrick, 2018. "Behavioral Modeling of Adversaries with Multiple Objectives in Counterterrorism," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(5), pages 962-977, May.
    14. Jason R. W. Merrick & Philip Leclerc, 2016. "Modeling Adversaries in Counterterrorism Decisions Using Prospect Theory," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(4), pages 681-693, April.
    15. Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox, Jr, 2008. "Some Limitations of “Risk = Threat × Vulnerability × Consequence” for Risk Analysis of Terrorist Attacks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(6), pages 1749-1761, December.
    16. Zhang, Chi & Ramirez-Marquez, José Emmanuel & Wang, Jianhui, 2015. "Critical infrastructure protection using secrecy – A discrete simultaneous game," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 242(1), pages 212-221.
    17. Allen, W. David, 2013. "Self-protection against crime victimization: Theory and evidence from university campuses," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 21-33.
    18. Adler, Matthew D. & Ferranna, Maddalena & Hammitt, James K. & Treich, Nicolas, 2021. "Fair innings? The utilitarian and prioritarian value of risk reduction over a whole lifetime," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    19. Nicola Ranger & Falk Nieh�rster, 2011. "Deep uncertainty in long-term hurricane risk: scenario generation and implications for future climate experiments," GRI Working Papers 51, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    20. Lakdawalla, Darius N. & Seabury, Seth A., 2012. "The welfare effects of medical malpractice liability," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 356-369.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ordeca:v:7:y:2010:i:4:p:366-377. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.