Elicitation of Probabilities Using Competitive Scoring Rules
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1287/deca.1030.0003
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Allan H. Murphy & Robert L. Winkler, 1977. "Reliability of Subjective Probability Forecasts of Precipitation and Temperature," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 26(1), pages 41-47, March.
- Robert L. Winkler, 1994. "Evaluating Probabilities: Asymmetric Scoring Rules," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(11), pages 1395-1405, November.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- James S. Dyer & James E. Smith, 2021. "Innovations in the Science and Practice of Decision Analysis: The Role of Management Science," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(9), pages 5364-5378, September.
- Victor Richmond R. Jose & Robert L. Winkler, 2009. "Evaluating Quantile Assessments," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 57(5), pages 1287-1297, October.
- McKenzie, Craig R.M. & Liersch, Michael J. & Yaniv, Ilan, 2008. "Overconfidence in interval estimates: What does expertise buy you?," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 179-191, November.
- Victor Jose, 2009. "A Characterization for the Spherical Scoring Rule," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 66(3), pages 263-281, March.
- Sohail Abbas & Zulfiqar Ali Mayo, 2021. "Impact of temperature and rainfall on rice production in Punjab, Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 1706-1728, February.
- Thomas Astebro & Frank Fossen & Cédric Gutierrez, 2024.
"Entrepreneurs: Clueless, Biased, Poor Heuristics, or Bayesian Machines?,"
Working Papers
hal-04759301, HAL.
- Astebro, Thomas B. & Fossen, Frank M. & Gutierrez, Cédric, 2024. "Entrepreneurs: Clueless, Biased, Poor Heuristics, or Bayesian Machines?," IZA Discussion Papers 17231, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Astebro, Thomas B. & Fossen, Frank M. & Gutierrez, Cédric, 2024. "Entrepreneurs: Clueless, Biased, Poor Heuristics, or Bayesian Machines?," HEC Research Papers Series 1529, HEC Paris.
- Alvaro Sandroni & Eran Shmaya, 2013. "Eliciting Beliefs by Paying in Chance," Discussion Papers 1565, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Walter Krämer & André Güttler, 2008.
"On comparing the accuracy of default predictions in the rating industry,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 343-356, March.
- Prof. Dr. Walter Krämer & Andre Güttler, "undated". "On comparing the accuracy of default predictions in the rating industry," Working Papers 2, Business and Social Statistics Department, Technische Universität Dortmund, revised Oct 2006.
- André Güttler & Walter Kraemer, 2008. "On Comparing the Accuracy of Default Predictions in the Rating Industry," CESifo Working Paper Series 2202, CESifo.
- James K. Hammitt & Alexander I. Shlyakhter, 1999. "The Expected Value of Information and the Probability of Surprise," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(1), pages 135-152, February.
- Li, Dawei & Feng, Siqi & Song, Yuchen & Lai, Xinjun & Bekhor, Shlomo, 2023. "Asymmetric closed-form route choice models: Formulations and comparative applications," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
- Dimitriadis, Timo & Gneiting, Tilmann & Jordan, Alexander I. & Vogel, Peter, 2024. "Evaluating probabilistic classifiers: The triptych," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1101-1122.
- Eva Regnier, 2018. "Probability Forecasts Made at Multiple Lead Times," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(5), pages 2407-2426, May.
- David Bessler & Robert Ruffley, 2004. "Prequential analysis of stock market returns," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(5), pages 399-412.
- Rakesh K. Sarin, 2013. "From the Editor ---Median Aggregation, Scoring Rules, Expert Forecasts, Choices with Binary Attributes, Portfolio with Dependent Projects, and Information Security," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(4), pages 277-278, December.
- Dharmasena, Senarath & Bessler, David & Capps, Oral. Jr, 2016. "On the Evaluation of Probability Forecasts: An Application to Qualitative Choice Models," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235424, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- repec:cup:judgdm:v:9:y:2014:i:5:p:445-464 is not listed on IDEAS
- Theo Offerman & Asa B. Palley, 2016. "Lossed in translation: an off-the-shelf method to recover probabilistic beliefs from loss-averse agents," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 19(1), pages 1-30, March.
- Saiwing Yeung, 2014. "Framing effect in evaluation of others' predictions," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 9(5), pages 445-464, September.
- M Revie & T Bedford & L Walls, 2010. "Evaluation of elicitation methods to quantify Bayes linear models," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 224(4), pages 322-332, December.
- Fergus Bolger & Gene Rowe, 2015. "The Aggregation of Expert Judgment: Do Good Things Come to Those Who Weight?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(1), pages 5-11, January.
- Stephen C. Hora, 2010. "An Analytic Method for Evaluating the Performance of Aggregation Rules for Probability Densities," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(5), pages 1440-1449, October.
More about this item
Keywords
elicitation of probabilities; prediction of probabilities; competitive prediction; scoring rules; multiparty bets;All these keywords.
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ordeca:v:1:y:2004:i:2:p:108-113. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.