IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/imx/journl/v6y2011i1p29-53.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Contagion Effects of Financial Crisis on Stock Markets: What Can We Learn From a Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Approach for Developed Countries?

Author

Listed:
  • Manuel J. Rocha Armada

    (University of Minho, School of Economics and Management, Braga, Portugal)

  • Joao Leitao

    (University of Beira Interior, Covilha, Portugal)

  • Júlio Lobao

    (University of Porto, Faculty of Economics, Porto, Portugal)

Abstract

Esta investigación aplica un conjunto de pruebas diversificadas que no se han utilizado en forma conjunta para estudiar los efectos de contagio de las crisis financieras en los mercados bursátiles de los pa ??ses desarrollados. Esto es particularmente importante debido al hecho de que en la literatura existente no se abordan adecuadamente los efectos de las crisis financieras en dichos mercados. Se realizan varias pruebas emp ??ricas en forma conjunta: pruebas de correlación; de Kolmogorov-Smirnov; de valor extremo; y las pruebas basadas en la estimación de modelos de vectores autorregresivos cointegrados. Se muestra evidencia significativa de efectos de contagio durante la crisis asiática, la crisis de Rusia y la crisis del 11 de Septiembre. Por último, los efectos de contagio encontrados durante las crisis en Brasil, Argentina y México son limitados.

Suggested Citation

  • Manuel J. Rocha Armada & Joao Leitao & Júlio Lobao, 2011. "The Contagion Effects of Financial Crisis on Stock Markets: What Can We Learn From a Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Approach for Developed Countries?," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 6(1), pages 29-53, Julio-Dic.
    • Handle: RePEc:imx:journl:v:6:y:2011:i:1:p:29-53
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.remef.org.mx/index.php/remef/article/view/14/16
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Axel Dreher & Bernhard Herz & Volker Karb, 2006. "Is there a causal link between currency and debt crises?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 305-325.
    2. Jorge A. Chan-Lau & Donald J. Mathieson & James Y. Yao, 2004. "Extreme Contagion in Equity Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(2), pages 1-8.
    3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    4. Sander, Harald & Kleimeier, Stefanie, 2003. "Contagion and causality: an empirical investigation of four Asian crisis episodes," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 171-186, April.
    5. Gande, Amar & Parsley, David C., 2005. "News spillovers in the sovereign debt market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 691-734, March.
    6. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    7. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    8. A. G. Malliaris & Jorge L. Urrutia, 2005. "The International Crash of October 1987: Causality Tests," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Economic Uncertainty, Instabilities And Asset Bubbles Selected Essays, chapter 16, pages 251-262, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    10. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    11. Nagayasu, Jun, 2001. "Currency crisis and contagion: evidence from exchange rates and sectoral stock indices of the Philippines and Thailand," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 529-546.
    12. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2001. "Bank Lending and Contagion: Evidence from the Asian Crisis," NBER Chapters, in: Regional and Global Capital Flows: Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences, pages 73-99, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    14. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
    15. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
    16. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1997. "Dynamic linkages and the propagation mechanism driving major international stock markets: An analysis of the pre- and post-crash eras," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 859-885.
    17. Takatoshi Ito & Anne O. Krueger, 2001. "Regional and Global Capital Flows: Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_01-1.
    18. repec:bla:etrans:v:9:y:2001:i:1:p:53-86 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Manuel J. Rocha Armada & João Leitão & Júlio Lobão, 2012. "The Contagion Effects of Financial Crisis on Stock Markets: What Can We Learn From a Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Approach for Developed Countries?," Remef - The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance, Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas. Remef, October.
    2. Nafeesa Yunus & Peggy Swanson, 2007. "Modelling Linkages between US and Asia‐Pacific Securitized Property Markets," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 95-122.
    3. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, December.
    4. AuYong, Hue Hwa & Gan, Christopher & Treepongkaruna, Sirimon, 2004. "Cointegration and causality in the Asian and emerging foreign exchange markets: Evidence from the 1990s financial crises," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 479-515.
    5. Ramona Dumitriu & Razvan Stefanescu, 2015. "The Relationship Between Romanian Exports And Economic Growth After The Adhesion To European Union," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 17-26.
    6. Григорьев Р.А., 2019. "Одновременные Эффекты Несинхронных Временных Рядов: Проблемы Var-Модели," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 55(2), pages 118-129, апрель.
    7. Eleni Thanou & Dikaios Tserkezos, 2008. "Nonlinear Diachronic Effects Between Stock Returns and Mutual Fund Flows: Additional Empirical Evidence from the Athens Stocks Exchange," Working Papers 0826, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    8. Chen, Yanhua & Li, Youwei & Pantelous, Athanasios A. & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2022. "Short-run disequilibrium adjustment and long-run equilibrium in the international stock markets: A network-based approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    9. Fur, Eric Le, 2021. "Fine Wines in a Diversified Portfolio of Collectibles," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315852, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Hassapis, Christis & Pittis, Nikitas, 1998. "Unit roots and long-run causality: investigating the relationship between output, money and interest rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 91-112, January.
    11. Rosas Chimal, Mario Alberto & Flores Ortega, Miguel, 2017. "Calificación riesgo país y flujos de capital en México: 1998-2012/Country risk rating and capital flows in Mexico: 1998-2012," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 35, pages 191-216, Enero.
    12. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    13. Naser, Hanan, 2014. "On the cointegration and causality between Oil market, Nuclear Energy Consumption, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Developed Countries," MPRA Paper 65252, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Mar 2015.
    14. Muhammad Omer & Omar Farooq Saqib, 2009. "Monetary Targeting in Pakistan: A Skeptical Note," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 5, pages 53-81.
    15. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2014. "Causality and contagion in EMU sovereign debt markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 12-27.
    16. Drakos, Konstantinos & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "Opposites attract: The case of Greek and Turkish financial markets," ZEI Working Papers B 06-2001, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    17. Rahman, Mohammad Chhiddikur, 2020. "Welfare Impact of Asymmetric Price Transmission on Bangladesh Rice Consumers," EconStor Theses, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, number 242248, February.
    18. Somar Almohamad & Anil V. Mishra & Xiao Yu, 2018. "Mena Stock Markets Integration: Pre and Post Global Financial Crisis," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(2), pages 107-141, June.
    19. Chen, Gong-meng & Firth, Michael & Meng Rui, Oliver, 2002. "Stock market linkages: Evidence from Latin America," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1113-1141, June.
    20. Jim Love & Ramesh Chandra, 2004. "Testing Export‐Led Growth in India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka Using a Multivariate Framework," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(4), pages 483-496, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cointegration; Contagion; Stock Markets; Developed Countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imx:journl:v:6:y:2011:i:1:p:29-53. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ricardo Mendoza (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.remef.org.mx/index.php/remef/index .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.