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LifeSim: A Lifecourse Dynamic Microsimulation Model of the Millennium Birth Cohort in England

Author

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  • Ieva Skarda

    (Centre for Health Economics, York, UK)

  • Miqdad Asaria

    (Department of Health Policy, Cowdray House, London, UK)

  • Richard Cookson

    (Centre for Health Economics, York, UK)

Abstract

We present a dynamic microsimulation model for childhood policy analysis that models developmental, economic, social and health outcomes from birth to death for each child in the Millennium Birth Cohort (MCS) in England, together with public costs and a summary wellbeing measure. The model is a discrete event simulation in discrete time (annual periods), implemented in R, which progresses 100,000 individuals through each year of their lives from birth in the year 2000 to death. From age 0 to 18 the model draws observational data from the MCS, with explicit modelling of only a few derived outcomes (mental health, conduct disorder, mortality, health-related quality of life, public costs and a general wellbeing metric). During adulthood, all outcomes are modelled dynamically using explicit networks of stochastic process equations, with separate networks for working age and retirement. Our equations are parameterised using effect estimates from existing studies combined with target outcome levels from up-to-date administrative and survey data. We present our baseline projections and a simple validation check against external data from the British Cohort Study 1970 and Understanding Society survey.
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Suggested Citation

  • Ieva Skarda & Miqdad Asaria & Richard Cookson, 2021. "LifeSim: A Lifecourse Dynamic Microsimulation Model of the Millennium Birth Cohort in England," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 14(1), pages 2-42.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijm:journl:v:14:y:2021:i:1:p:2-42
    DOI: 10.34196/ijm.00228
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eugenio Zucchelli & Andrew M Jones & Nigel Rice, 2012. "The evaluation of health policies through dynamic microsimulation methods," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 5(1), pages 2-20.
    2. Bonin, Eva-Maria & Stevens, Madeleine & Beecham, Jennifer & Byford, Sarah & Parsonage, Michael, 2011. "Costs and longer-term savings of parenting programmes for the prevention of persistent conduct disorder: a modelling study," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 39432, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Michael Wolfson & Geoff Rowe, 2014. "HealthPaths: Using functional health trajectories to quantify the relative importance of selected health determinants," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(31), pages 941-974.
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    Cited by:

    1. Liina Mansukoski & Alexandra Albert & Yassaman Vafai & Chris Cartwright & Aamnah Rahman & Jessica Sheringham & Bridget Lockyer & Tiffany C. Yang & Philip Garnett & Maria Bryant, 2022. "Development of Public Health Core Outcome Sets for Systems-Wide Promotion of Early Life Health and Wellbeing," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-15, June.
    2. Skarda, Ieva & Asaria, Miqdad & Cookson, Richard, 2022. "Evaluating childhood policy impacts on lifetime health, wellbeing and inequality: Lifecourse distributional economic evaluation," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    3. Kopasker, Daniel & Bronka, Patryk & Thomson, Rachel M. & Khodygo, Vladimir & Kromydas, Theocharis & Meier, Petra & Heppenstall, Alison & Bambra, Clare & Lomax, Nik & Craig, Peter & Richiardi, Matteo &, 2024. "Evaluating the influence of taxation and social security policies on psychological distress: A microsimulation study of the UK during the COVID-19 economic crisis," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 351(C).
    4. Richiardi, Matteo & Bronka, Patryk & van de Ven, Justin & Kopasker, Daniel & Vittal Katikireddi, Srinivasa, 2023. "SimPaths: an open-source microsimulation model for life course analysis," Centre for Microsimulation and Policy Analysis Working Paper Series CEMPA6/23, Centre for Microsimulation and Policy Analysis at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.

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