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A Microsimulation Model of Fertility, Childbearing, and Child Well-Being

Author

Listed:
  • Adam Thomas

    (McCourt School of Public Policy, Georgetown University, Washington, DC)

  • Quentin Karpilow

    (Child Trends, Bethesda, MD)

  • Kate Welti

    (Child Trends, Bethesda, MD)

  • Jennifer Manlove

    (Child Trends, Bethesda, MD)

  • Elizabeth Cook

    (Child Trends, Bethesda, MD)

Abstract

The topic of family structure features prominently in social policy debates in the United States. This paper details the architecture of FamilyScape 3.0, a microsimulation tool that models a wide variety of real-world behaviours and outcomes related to family formation and child well-being. We describe FamilyScape?s procedures for simulating sexual activity, contraceptive behaviour, female fecundity, contraceptive efficacy, pregnancy and pregnancy outcomes, and maternal and child outcomes. We present an extensive set of simulation results demonstrating that the model realistically simulates of each of these dynamics. Most importantly, we show that FamilyScape closely approximates real-world rates of contraceptive failure, pregnancy, childbearing, and abortion. We conclude by briefly discussing the model?s potential to inform a range of policy debates

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Thomas & Quentin Karpilow & Kate Welti & Jennifer Manlove & Elizabeth Cook, 2017. "A Microsimulation Model of Fertility, Childbearing, and Child Well-Being," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 10(2), pages 3-58.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijm:journl:v10:y:2017:i:2:p:3-58
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martha J. Bailey & Brad Hershbein & Amalia R. Miller, 2012. "The Opt-In Revolution? Contraception and the Gender Gap in Wages," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 225-254, July.
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    5. Mitton,Lavinia & Sutherland,Holly & Weeks,Melvyn (ed.), 2000. "Microsimulation Modelling for Policy Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521790062, September.
    6. Harold W. Guthrie & Guy H. Orcutt & Steven Caldwell & Gerald E. Peabody & George Sadowsky, 1975. "Microanalytic Simulation of Household Behavior," NBER Chapters, in: The Role of the Computer in Economic and Social Research in Latin America, pages 109-138, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Heinrich Hock, 2007. "The Pill and the College Attainment of American Women and Men," Working Papers wp2007_10_01, Department of Economics, Florida State University.
    8. Adam Thomas, 2012. "Three Strategies to Prevent Unintended Pregnancy," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 280-311, March.
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    10. Elizabeth Thomson & Maria Winkler-Dworak & Martin Spielauer & Alexia Prskawetz, 2012. "Union Instability as an Engine of Fertility? A Microsimulation Model for France," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 49(1), pages 175-195, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maria Winkler-Dworak & Eva Beaujouan & Paola Di Giulio & Martin Spielauer, 2019. "Simulating Family Life Courses: An Application for Italy, Great Britain, and Scandinavia," VID Working Papers 1908, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    2. Maria Winkler-Dworak & Eva Beaujouan & Paola Di Giulio & Martin Spielauer, 2021. "Simulating family life courses: An application for Italy, Great Britain, Norway, and Sweden," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(1), pages 1-48.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    FAMILYSCAPE; FERTILITY; CHILDBEARING; CONTRACEPTION;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

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