IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ijc/ijcjou/y2022q2a2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exiting from an Exchange Rate Floor in a Small Open Economy: Balance Sheet Implications of the Czech National Bank's Exchange Rate Commitment

Author

Listed:
  • Michal Franta

    (Czech National Bank)

  • Tomas Holub

    (Czech National Bank and Charles University)

  • Branislav Saxa

    (Czech National Bank)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to model the situation of a large central bank balance sheet with assets consisting almost exclusively of foreign exchange reserves in the circumstances of a catching-up economy exhibiting an exchange rate appreciation trend. As an illustration, we present projections of the Czech National Bank's balance sheet after the discontinuation of its exchange rate commitment. Apart from the baseline projection, which suggests a switch from losses to profits in 2026, several scenarios are discussed. Some relate to the exchange rate commitment itself (such as a discussion of its fiscal consequences), while others examine more general central bank balance sheet issues (such as a long-run decline in currency in circulation).

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Franta & Tomas Holub & Branislav Saxa, 2022. "Exiting from an Exchange Rate Floor in a Small Open Economy: Balance Sheet Implications of the Czech National Bank's Exchange Rate Commitment," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(2), pages 51-105, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2022:q:2:a:2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb22q2a2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb22q2a2.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Lopez, Jose A. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2015. "A probability-based stress test of Federal Reserve assets and income," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 26-43.
    2. Jan Bruha & Jaromir Tonner, 2018. "An Exchange Rate Floor as an Instrument of Monetary Policy: An Ex-Post Assessment of the Czech Experience," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(6), pages 537-549, December.
    3. Robert E. Hall & Ricardo Reis, 2015. "Maintaining Central-Bank Financial Stability under New-Style Central Banking," Economics Working Papers 15109, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    4. Mojmir Hampl & Tomas Havranek, 2018. "Central Bank Financial Strength and Inflation: A Meta-Analysis," Research and Policy Notes 2018/01, Czech National Bank.
    5. Jef Boeckx & Maarten Dossche & Gert Peersman, 2017. "Effectiveness and Transmission of the ECB's Balance Sheet Policies," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(1), pages 297-333, February.
    6. Brian Bonis & Lauren Fiesthumel & Jamie Noonan, 2018. "SOMA's Unrealized Loss: What Does it Mean?," FEDS Notes 2018-08-13-2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Mr. Peter Stella, 1997. "Do Central Banks Need Capital?," IMF Working Papers 1997/083, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michal Franta & Tomas Holub & Branislav Saxa, 2018. "Balance Sheet Implications of the Czech National Bank's Exchange Rate Commitment," Working Papers 2018/10, Czech National Bank.
    2. Sascha Buetzer, 2022. "Advancing the Monetary Policy Toolkit through Outright Transfers," IMF Working Papers 2022/087, International Monetary Fund.
    3. van Holle, Frederiek, 2017. "Essays in empirical finance and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 30d11a4b-7bc9-4c81-ad24-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Atsushi Tanaka, 2021. "Central Bank Capital and Credibility: A Literature Survey," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(2), pages 249-262, June.
    5. Joerg Bibow, 2018. "Unconventional Monetary Policies and Central Bank Profits: Seigniorage as Fiscal Revenue in the Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_916, Levy Economics Institute.
    6. Atsushi Tanaka, 2020. "Central Bank Capital and Credibility: A Literature Survey," Discussion Paper Series 208, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised May 2020.
    7. José Miguel Cardoso da Costa, 2022. "On the solvency and credibility of a central bank," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    8. Igor Goncharov & Vasso Ioannidou & Martin C. Schmalz, 2020. "(Why) do central banks care about their profits?," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 018, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    9. Michele Cavallo & Marco Del Negro & W. Scott Frame & Jamie Grasing & Benjamin A. Malin & Carlo Rosa, 2019. "Fiscal Implications of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Normalization," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(5), pages 255-306, December.
    10. Huixin Bi & Wenyi Shen & Shu‐Chun S. Yang, 2022. "Fiscal implications of interest rate normalization in the United States," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(2), pages 868-904, May.
    11. Atsushi Tanaka, 2019. "How Can a Central Bank Exit Quantitative Easing Without Rapidly Shrinking its Balance Sheet?," Discussion Paper Series 196, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University.
    12. Jakob Korbinian Eberl, 2016. "The Collateral Framework of the Eurosystem and Its Fiscal Implications," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 69.
    13. Manuel Amador & Javier Bianchi, 2023. "Helicopter Drops and Liquidity Traps," Working Papers 797, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    14. Amador, Manuel & Bianchi, Javier & Bocola, Luigi & Perri, Fabrizio, 2016. "Reverse speculative attacks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 125-137.
    15. Jörg Bibow, 2018. "Unconventional monetary policies and central bank profits," IMK Studies 62-2018, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    16. Christiaan Pattipeilohy, 2016. "A comparative analysis of developments in central bank balance sheet composition," DNB Working Papers 510, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    17. Anastasios Evgenidis & Stephanos Papadamou, 2021. "The impact of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area. Structural and scenario analysis from a Bayesian VAR," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5684-5703, October.
    18. Fritz Breuss, 2016. "The Crisis Management of the ECB," WIFO Working Papers 507, WIFO.
    19. Jan Bruha & Jaromir Tonner, 2018. "Independent Monetary Policy Versus a Common Currency: A Macroeconomic Analysis for the Czech Republic Through the Lens of an Applied DSGE Model," Working Papers 2018/19, Czech National Bank.
    20. Victor Echevarria Icaza & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2017. "Yields on sovereign debt, fragmentation and monetary policy transmission in the euro area: A GVAR approach," Working Papers 17-01, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2022:q:2:a:2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bank for International Settlements (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.ijcb.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.