IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ijb/journl/v18y2019i2p165-193.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Relationship between Exchange Rate and Equity Prices in an Emerging Market: A Continuous Wavelet-based Analysis for Bangladesh

Author

Listed:
  • Aviral Kumar Tiwari

    (Rajagiri Business School, Rajagiri Valley Campus, Kochi, India and Montpellier Business School, Montpellier, France)

  • Anisul M. Islam

    (College of Business, University of Houston (Downtown) Houston, Texas, U.S.A.)

  • Md. Mohibul Islam

    (ULAB School of Business, University of Liberal Arts Bangladesh Dhaka, Bangladesh)

Abstract

This research empirically examines the relationship between the exchange rate and stock prices by utilizing a relatively novel and non-traditional technique known as the continuous wavelet approach, which involves the continuous wavelet power spectrum, cross-wavelet transform, and cross-wavelet coherency. We employ monthly time-series data from the period 1986m09 to 2014m07 for a total of 334 monthly observations on Bangladesh. The empirical results strongly support the traditional hypothesis that the exchange rate leads (causes) stock prices compared to the alternative portfolio-based hypothesis. The implication of this finding is that policy makers need to be extra careful in managing the local exchange rate and to consider any possible effects of policy actions in the foreign exchange market on the stock market in order to avoid undesirable consequences.

Suggested Citation

  • Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Anisul M. Islam & Md. Mohibul Islam, 2019. "Relationship between Exchange Rate and Equity Prices in an Emerging Market: A Continuous Wavelet-based Analysis for Bangladesh," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 18(2), pages 165-193, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijb:journl:v:18:y:2019:i:2:p:165-193
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ijbe.fcu.edu.tw/assets/ijbe/past_issue/No.18-2/pdf/vol_18-2-3.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://ijbe.fcu.edu.tw/assets/ijbe/past_issue/No.18-2/abstract/03.html
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:bla:scandj:v:78:y:1976:i:2:p:200-224 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Anthony B. Atkinson & Thomas Piketty & Emmanuel Saez, 2011. "Top Incomes in the Long Run of History," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 3-71, March.
    3. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Soares, 2011. "Oil and the macroeconomy: using wavelets to analyze old issues," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 645-655, May.
    4. Andrieș, Alin Marius & Ihnatov, Iulian & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2014. "Analyzing time–frequency relationship between interest rate, stock price and exchange rate through continuous wavelet," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 227-238.
    5. Issam Abdalla & Victor Murinde, 1997. "Exchange rate and stock price interactions in emerging financial markets: evidence on India, Korea, Pakistan and the Philippines," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 25-35.
    6. World Bank, 2017. "World Development Indicators 2017," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 26447.
    7. Rua, António & Nunes, Luís C., 2009. "International comovement of stock market returns: A wavelet analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 632-639, September.
    8. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1980. "Exchange Rates and the Current Account," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 960-971, December.
    9. Jean-Marie Dufour & Eric Renault, 1998. "Short Run and Long Run Causality in Time Series: Theory," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1099-1126, September.
    10. Frank J. Fabozzi & Chun-Yip Fung & Kin Lam & Wing-Keung Wong, 2013. "Market overreaction and underreaction: tests of the directional and magnitude effects," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(18), pages 1469-1482, September.
    11. Ephraim Clark & Zhuo Qiao & Wing-Keung Wong, 2016. "Theories Of Risk: Testing Investor Behavior On The Taiwan Stock And Stock Index Futures Markets," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(2), pages 907-924, April.
    12. Granger, Clive W.J. & Huang, Bwo-Nung & Yang, Chin W., 1998. "A Bivariate Causality between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Recent Asia Flu," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt9bk607p6, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    13. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Dar, Arif Billah & Bhanja, Niyati, 2013. "Oil price and exchange rates: A wavelet based analysis for India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 414-422.
    14. Chu V. Nguyen & Anisul M. Islam & Muhammad Mahboob Ali, 2011. "The Current State of the Financial Sector of Bangladesh: An Analysis," AIUB Bus Econ Working Paper Series AIUB-BUS-ECON-2011-03, American International University-Bangladesh (AIUB), Office of Research and Publications (ORP), revised Nov 2011.
    15. Richard A. Ajayi & Mbodja Mougouė, 1996. "On The Dynamic Relation Between Stock Prices And Exchange Rates," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 193-207, June.
    16. Smith, C. E., 1992. "Stock markets and the exchange rate: A multi-country approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 607-629.
    17. Gavin, Michael, 1989. "The stock market and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 181-200, June.
    18. Dominguez, Kathryn M & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1993. "Does Foreign-Exchange Intervention Matter? The Portfolio Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1356-1369, December.
    19. Alok Kumar Mishra, 2004. "Stock Market and Foreign Exchange Market in India: Are they Related?," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 5(2), pages 209-232, September.
    20. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Olaolu Richard Olayeni, 2013. "Oil prices and trade balance: A wavelet based analysis for India," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 2270-2286.
    21. Ajayi, Richard A. & Friedman, Joseph & Mehdian, Seyed M., 1998. "On the relationship between stock returns and exchange rates: Tests of granger causality," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 241-251.
    22. Mevlud Islami, 2008. "Interdependence Between Foreign Exchange Markets and Stock Markets in Selected European Countries," Schumpeter Discussion Papers sdp08007, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    23. Mevlud Islami, 2008. "Interdependence Between Foreign Exchange Markets and Stock Markets in Selected European Countries," EIIW Discussion paper disbei160, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    24. Syed Basher & M. Kabir Hassan & Anisul Islam, 2007. "Time-varying volatility and equity returns in Bangladesh stock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(17), pages 1393-1407.
    25. Dar, Arif Billah & Bhanja, Niyati & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2014. "Exchange Rate and Stock Price Relationship: A Wavelet Analysis for India," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 49(1), pages 125-142.
    26. Gençay, Ramazan & Dacorogna, Michel & Muller, Ulrich A. & Pictet, Olivier & Olsen, Richard, 2001. "An Introduction to High-Frequency Finance," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780122796715.
    27. Naeem Muhammad & Abdul Rasheed, 2002. "Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Are they Related? Evidence from South Asian Countries," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 41(4), pages 535-550.
    28. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Azevedo, Nuno & Soares, Maria Joana, 2008. "Using wavelets to decompose the time–frequency effects of monetary policy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(12), pages 2863-2878.
    29. Granger, Clive W. J. & Huangb, Bwo-Nung & Yang, Chin-Wei, 2000. "A bivariate causality between stock prices and exchange rates: evidence from recent Asianflu," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 337-354.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aviral Tiwari & Niyati Bhanja & Arif Dar & Faridul Islam, 2015. "Time–frequency relationship between share prices and exchange rates in India: Evidence from continuous wavelets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 699-714, March.
    2. Andrew Phiri, 2020. "Structural changes in exchange rate-stock returns dynamics in South Africa: examining the role of crisis and new trading platform," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 171-193, February.
    3. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei & Wu, An-Chi, 2020. "The foreign exchange and stock market nexus: New international evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 240-266.
    4. Ülkü, Numan & Demirci, Ebru, 2012. "Joint dynamics of foreign exchange and stock markets in emerging Europe," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 55-86.
    5. Afshan, Sahar & Sharif, Arshian & Loganathan, Nanthakumar & Jammazi, Rania, 2018. "Time–frequency causality between stock prices and exchange rates: Further evidences from cointegration and wavelet analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 495(C), pages 225-244.
    6. Paul Alagidede & Theodore Panagiotidis & Xu Zhang, 2011. "Causal relationship between stock prices and exchange rates," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 67-86.
    7. Stavarek, Daniel, 2004. "Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in the EU and the USA: Evidence of their Mutual Interactions," MPRA Paper 7297, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Xingxing He & Korhan K. Gokmenoglu & Dervis Kirikkaleli & Syed Kumail Abbas Rizvi, 2023. "Co‐movement of foreign exchange rate returns and stock market returns in an emerging market: Evidence from the wavelet coherence approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1994-2005, April.
    9. Mehmet PEKKAYA & Ersin AÇIKGÖZ & Veli YILANCI, 2017. "Panel causality analysis between exchange rates and stock indexes for fragile five," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(611), S), pages 33-44, Summer.
    10. Daniel Stavarek, 2004. "Linkages between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in the EU and the United States," Finance 0406006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Lin, Chien-Hsiu, 2012. "The comovement between exchange rates and stock prices in the Asian emerging markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 161-172.
    12. Morales-Zumaquero, Amalia & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2018. "Volatility spillovers between foreign exchange and stock markets in industrialized countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 121-136.
    13. Hooi-Hooi Lean & Marwan Halim, 2005. "Bivariate Causality between Exchange Rates and Stock Prices on Major Asian Countries," Monash Economics Working Papers 10/05, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    14. Liang, Chin-Chia & Lin, Jeng-Bau & Hsu, Hao-Cheng, 2013. "Reexamining the relationships between stock prices and exchange rates in ASEAN-5 using panel Granger causality approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 560-563.
    15. Malik, Farooq, 2021. "Volatility spillover between exchange rate and stock returns under volatility shifts," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 605-613.
    16. Abdullah M. Noman & Sarkar Humayun Kabir & Omar K.M.R. Bashar, 2012. "Causality between stock and foreign exchange markets in Bangladesh," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 29(3), pages 174-186, July.
    17. Gözde YILDIRIM, Zafer ADALI, 2018. "Linear and Non-Linear Causality Tests of Stock Price and Real Exchange Rate Interactions in Turkey," Fiscaoeconomia, Tubitak Ulakbim JournalPark (Dergipark), issue 1.
    18. Mira Nurmakhanova, 2019. "Exchange Rate and Stock Prices Interactions in Kazakhstan," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 7(2), pages 19-31.
    19. Reboredo, Juan C. & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A. & Ugolini, Andrea, 2016. "Downside and upside risk spillovers between exchange rates and stock prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 76-96.
    20. Lin, Jeng-Bau & Fu, Shan-Heng, 2016. "Investigating the dynamic relationships between equity markets and currency markets," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(6), pages 2193-2198.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate; stock prices; wavelet coherency; Bangladesh;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijb:journl:v:18:y:2019:i:2:p:165-193. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Szu-Hsien Ho (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbfcutw.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.