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Oil prices and trade balance: A wavelet based analysis for India

Author

Listed:
  • Aviral Kumar Tiwari

    (ICFAI University Tripura, Tripura, India)

  • Olaolu Richard Olayeni

    (Department of Economics, Obafemi Awolowo University, Nigeria)

Abstract

The study examinations lead-lag relationship between real oil price (ROP) and real trade balance (RTB) for India using monthly data and covering period from January 1980 to December 2011. To in depth examine the issue, study decomposes the time-frequency relationship between ROP and RTB utilising continuous wavelet approach. Result of the Rua's (2010) measure of wavelet cohesion show that there was high degree of positive correlation in the 0.25-0.5 years-scale corresponding to 1983-1984 and 1986-1989; and in the 0.75-2 years-scale corresponding to 2008-2010. However, evidence of high negative correlation was found in 0.5-1 years-scale corresponding to 1987-1990, 1994-1996 and 2001-2005 and evidence of strong negative correlation was found in 1.75-2.25 years-scale corresponding to 1990-1997. Further, results of wavelet coherence analysis show that in the significant region of coherency and corresponding year-scales, real oil price was leading over India's trade balance indicating that an increase in the oil price will increase India's trade balance. These results corroborate the findings in Le and Chang (2013) and contrary to the findings in Hassan and Zaman (2012).

Suggested Citation

  • Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Olaolu Richard Olayeni, 2013. "Oil prices and trade balance: A wavelet based analysis for India," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 2270-2286.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-13-00405
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2012. "Reassessment of Sustainability of Current Account Deficit in India," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 10(1), pages 67-79.
    2. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2013. "Oil prices and the macroeconomy reconsideration for Germany: Using continuous wavelet," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 636-642.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Is there a homogeneous causality pattern between oil prices and currencies of oil importers and exporters?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 665-678.
    2. Zied Ftiti & Aviral Tiwari & Ibrahim Fatnassi, 2014. "Oil price and macroeconomy in India – An evolutionary cospectral coherence approach," Working Papers 2014-68, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    3. Hathroubi, Salem & Aloui, Chaker, 2022. "Oil price dynamics and fiscal policy cyclicality in Saudi Arabia: New evidence from partial and multiple wavelet coherences," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 149-160.
    4. Zied Ftiti & Aviral Tiwari & Amél Belanès & Khaled Guesmi, 2014. "Tests of Financial Market Contagion: Evolutionary Cospectral Analysis V.S. Wavelet Analysis," Working Papers 2014-577, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    5. D. O. Olayungbo, 2019. "Effects of Global Oil Price on Exchange Rate, Trade Balance, and Reserves in Nigeria: A Frequency Domain Causality Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-14, March.
    6. Yang, Lu & Cai, Xiao Jing & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2017. "Does the crude oil price influence the exchange rates of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries differently? A wavelet coherence analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 536-547.
    7. Aviral Tiwari & Niyati Bhanja & Arif Dar & Faridul Islam, 2015. "Time–frequency relationship between share prices and exchange rates in India: Evidence from continuous wavelets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 699-714, March.
    8. Yoshito Funashima, 2018. "Macroeconomic policy coordination between Japanese central and local governments," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1631-1651, June.
    9. Olaolu Richard Olayeni, 2016. "Causality in Continuous Wavelet Transform Without Spectral Matrix Factorization: Theory and Application," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 47(3), pages 321-340, March.
    10. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Anisul M. Islam & Md. Mohibul Islam, 2019. "Relationship between Exchange Rate and Equity Prices in an Emerging Market: A Continuous Wavelet-based Analysis for Bangladesh," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 18(2), pages 165-193, September.
    11. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-068 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Gozgor, Giray & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Demir, Ender & Akron, Sagi, 2019. "The relationship between Bitcoin returns and trade policy uncertainty," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 75-82.
    13. Nuray Terzi & Sadullah Celik, 2016. "Oil Prices And Trade In Turkey: A Wavelet Continuous Transform Analysis," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 4(4), pages 29-41.
    14. Zied Ftiti & Aviral Tiwari & Amél Belanès & Khaled Guesmi, 2015. "Tests of Financial Market Contagion: Evolutionary Cospectral Analysis Versus Wavelet Analysis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 46(4), pages 575-611, December.
    15. Liurong Pan & Asad Amin & Nian Zhu & Abbas Ali Chandio & Eric Yaw Naminse & Aadil Hameed Shah, 2022. "Exploring the Asymmetrical Influence of Economic Growth, Oil Price, Consumer Price Index and Industrial Production on the Trade Deficit in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-22, November.
    16. Mutascu, Mihai, 2018. "A time-frequency analysis of trade openness and CO2 emissions in France," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 443-455.
    17. Gazi Salah Uddin & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2013. "Measuring co-movement of oil price and exchange rate differential in Bangladesh," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 1922-1930.
    18. Aviral Tiwari & Niyati Bhanja & Arif Dar & Olaolu Olayeni, 2015. "Analyzing Time–Frequency Based Co-movement in Inflation: Evidence from G-7 Countries," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(1), pages 91-109, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil prices; Trade balance; Wavelet analysis; India;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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