IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/igg/jcini0/v15y2021i2p111-138.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Using Hybrid Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model and Dynamic Particle Swarm Optimization

Author

Listed:
  • Pavan Kumar Singh

    (MNNIT, Allahabad, India)

  • Nitin Singh

    (MNNIT, Allahabad, India)

  • Richa Negi

    (MNNIT, Allahabad, India)

Abstract

With the upsurge in restructuring of the power markets, wind power has become one of the key factors in power generation in the smart grids and gained momentum in the recent years. The accurate wind power forecasting is highly desirable for reduction of the reserve capability, enhancement in penetration of the wind power, stability and economic operation of the power system. The time series models are extensively used for the wind power forecasting. The model estimation in the ARIMA model is usually accomplished by maximizing the log likelihood function and it requires to be re-estimated for any change in input value. This degrades the performance of the ARIMA model. In the proposed work, the model estimation of the ARIMA model is done using latest evolutionary algorithm (i.e., dynamic particle swarm optimization [DPSO]). The use of DPSO algorithm eliminates the need for re-estimation of the model coefficients for any change in input value and moreover, it improves the performance of ARIMA model. The performance of proposed DPSO-ARIMA model has been compared to the existing models.

Suggested Citation

  • Pavan Kumar Singh & Nitin Singh & Richa Negi, 2021. "Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Using Hybrid Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model and Dynamic Particle Swarm Optimization," International Journal of Cognitive Informatics and Natural Intelligence (IJCINI), IGI Global, vol. 15(2), pages 111-138, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:igg:jcini0:v:15:y:2021:i:2:p:111-138
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://services.igi-global.com/resolvedoi/resolve.aspx?doi=10.4018/IJCINI.20210401.oa9
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patwal, Rituraj Singh & Narang, Nitin & Garg, Harish, 2018. "A novel TVAC-PSO based mutation strategies algorithm for generation scheduling of pumped storage hydrothermal system incorporating solar units," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 822-837.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Minhui Qian & Ning Chen & Yuge Chen & Changming Chen & Weiqiang Qiu & Dawei Zhao & Zhenzhi Lin, 2021. "Optimal Coordinated Dispatching Strategy of Multi-Sources Power System with Wind, Hydro and Thermal Power Based on CVaR in Typhoon Environment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-35, June.
    2. Zhenhua Xiong & Yan Chen & Guihua Ban & Yixin Zhuo & Kui Huang, 2022. "A Hybrid Algorithm for Short-Term Wind Power Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-11, October.
    3. Ban, Guihua & Chen, Yan & Xiong, Zhenhua & Zhuo, Yixin & Huang, Kui, 2024. "The univariate model for long-term wind speed forecasting based on wavelet soft threshold denoising and improved Autoformer," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sakthivel, V.P. & Thirumal, K. & Sathya, P.D., 2022. "Short term scheduling of hydrothermal power systems with photovoltaic and pumped storage plants using quasi-oppositional turbulent water flow optimization," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 459-492.
    2. Basu, Mousumi, 2022. "Fuel constrained short-term hydrothermal generation scheduling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PD).
    3. Zhang, Rongda & Wei, Jing & Zhao, Xiaoli & Liu, Yang, 2022. "Economic and environmental benefits of the integration between carbon sequestration and underground gas storage," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    4. Kim, H.J. & Kim, M.K., 2023. "A novel deep learning-based forecasting model optimized by heuristic algorithm for energy management of microgrid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
    5. Hu, Yusha & Li, Jigeng & Hong, Mengna & Ren, Jingzheng & Lin, Ruojue & Liu, Yue & Liu, Mengru & Man, Yi, 2019. "Short term electric load forecasting model and its verification for process industrial enterprises based on hybrid GA-PSO-BPNN algorithm—A case study of papermaking process," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 1215-1227.
    6. Ahmed A. Ewees & Mohammed A. A. Al-qaness & Laith Abualigah & Diego Oliva & Zakariya Yahya Algamal & Ahmed M. Anter & Rehab Ali Ibrahim & Rania M. Ghoniem & Mohamed Abd Elaziz, 2021. "Boosting Arithmetic Optimization Algorithm with Genetic Algorithm Operators for Feature Selection: Case Study on Cox Proportional Hazards Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(18), pages 1-22, September.
    7. Chen, Shuixia & Wang, Jian-qiang & Zhang, Hong-yu, 2019. "A hybrid PSO-SVM model based on clustering algorithm for short-term atmospheric pollutant concentration forecasting," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 41-54.
    8. Anand, Himanshu & Narang, Nitin & Dhillon, J.S., 2019. "Multi-objective combined heat and power unit commitment using particle swarm optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 794-807.
    9. Feng, Chen & Zheng, Yuan & Li, Chaoshun & Mai, Zijun & Wu, Wei & Chen, Huixiang, 2021. "Cost advantage of adjustable-speed pumped storage unit for daily operation in distributed hybrid system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 1-10.
    10. Chun-Yao Lee & Guang-Lin Zhuo, 2021. "A Hybrid Whale Optimization Algorithm for Global Optimization," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(13), pages 1-19, June.
    11. Tang, Xiongmin & Li, Zhengshuo & Xu, Xuancong & Zeng, Zhijun & Jiang, Tianhong & Fang, Wenrui & Meng, Anbo, 2022. "Multi-objective economic emission dispatch based on an extended crisscross search optimization algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PA).
    12. Pavan Kumar Singh & Nitin Singh & Richa Negi, 2021. "Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Using Hybrid Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model and Dynamic Particle Swarm Optimization," International Journal of Cognitive Informatics and Natural Intelligence (IJCINI), IGI Global, vol. 15(2), pages 124-151, April.
    13. Fazli Wahid & Rozaida Ghazali & Lokman Hakim Ismail & Ali M. Algarwi Aseere, 2023. "An Optimal Neural Network for Hourly and Daily Energy Consumption Prediction in Buildings," International Journal of Swarm Intelligence Research (IJSIR), IGI Global, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, January.
    14. Yang, Xu & Li, Hongru, 2023. "Multi-sample learning particle swarm optimization with adaptive crossover operation," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 246-282.
    15. Patwal, Rituraj Singh & Narang, Nitin, 2020. "Multi-objective generation scheduling of integrated energy system using fuzzy based surrogate worth trade-off approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 864-882.
    16. Yin, Hao & Wu, Fei & Meng, Xin & Lin, Yicheng & Fan, Jingmin & Meng, Anbo, 2020. "Crisscross optimization based short-term hydrothermal generation scheduling with cascaded reservoirs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    17. Muhammad Ahmad Iqbal & Muhammad Salman Fakhar & Noor Ul Ain & Ahsen Tahir & Irfan Ahmad Khan & Ghulam Abbas & Syed Abdul Rahman Kashif, 2023. "A New Fast Deterministic Economic Dispatch Method and Statistical Performance Evaluation for the Cascaded Short-Term Hydrothermal Scheduling Problem," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-23, January.
    18. Zaher Mundher Yaseen & Mohammad Ehteram & Md. Shabbir Hossain & Chow Ming Fai & Suhana Binti Koting & Nuruol Syuhadaa Mohd & Wan Zurina Binti Jaafar & Haitham Abdulmohsin Afan & Lai Sai Hin & Nuratiah, 2019. "A Novel Hybrid Evolutionary Data-Intelligence Algorithm for Irrigation and Power Production Management: Application to Multi-Purpose Reservoir Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-28, April.
    19. Yahia, Zakaria & Pradhan, Anup, 2020. "Simultaneous and sequential stochastic optimization approaches for pumped storage plant scheduling with random breakdowns," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    20. Daneshvar, Mohammadreza & Mohammadi-Ivatloo, Behnam & Zare, Kazem & Asadi, Somayeh, 2020. "Two-stage stochastic programming model for optimal scheduling of the wind-thermal-hydropower-pumped storage system considering the flexibility assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:igg:jcini0:v:15:y:2021:i:2:p:111-138. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Journal Editor (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.igi-global.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.