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Anticipating Tax Changes: Evidence from the Finnish Corporate Income Tax Reform of 2005

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  • Seppo Kari
  • Hanna Karikallio
  • Jukka Pirttilä

Abstract

Using register-based panel data covering all Finnish firms from 1999 to 2004, we examine how corporations anticipated the 2005 dividend tax increase via changes in their dividend and investment policies. The Finnish capital and corporate income tax reform of 2005 creates a useful opportunity to measure this behaviour, since it involves exogenous variation in the tax treatment of different types of firms. The estimation results reveal that those firms that anticipated a dividend tax hike increased their dividend payouts in a statistically significant way. This increase was not accompanied by a reduction in investment activities, but rather was associated with increased indebtedness in non-listed firms. The results also suggest that the timing of dividend distributions probably offsets much of the potential for increased dividend tax revenue following the reform. Copyright (c) 2008 The Authors Journal compilation (c) Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008.

Suggested Citation

  • Seppo Kari & Hanna Karikallio & Jukka Pirttilä, 2008. "Anticipating Tax Changes: Evidence from the Finnish Corporate Income Tax Reform of 2005," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 29(2), pages 167-196, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ifs:fistud:v:29:y:2008:i:2:p:167-196
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dividends and taxation
      by Tyler Cowen in Marginal Revolution on 2012-02-13 22:20:34

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    Cited by:

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    2. Blundell, Richard & Francesconi, Marco & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2011. "Anatomy of Welfare Reform Evaluation: Announcement and Implementation Effects," IZA Discussion Papers 6050, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Seppo Kari & Jussi Laitila, 2015. "Nonlinear Dividend Tax and the Dynamics of the Firm," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 71(2), pages 153-177, June.
    4. Annette Alstadsæter & Erik Fjærli, 2009. "Neutral taxation of shareholder income? Corporate responses to an announced dividend tax," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 16(4), pages 571-604, August.
    5. Masso, Jaan & Meriküll, Jaanika & Vahter, Priit, 2013. "Shift from gross profit taxation to distributed profit taxation: Are there effects on firms?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 1092-1105.
    6. Jaan Masso & Jaanika Meriküll & Priit Vahter, 2011. "Gross Profit Taxation Versus Distributed Profit Taxation And Firm Performance: Effects Of Estonia’S Corporate Income Tax Reform," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series 81, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).
    7. Harju, Jarkko & Matikka, Tuomas, 2013. "Entrepreneurs and income-shifting: Empirical evidence from a Finnish tax reform," Working Papers 43, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Annette Alstadsæter & Knut Reidar Wangen, 2008. "Corporations’ Choice of Tax Regime when Transition Costs are Small and Income Shifting Potential is Large," CESifo Working Paper Series 2392, CESifo.
    9. Jarkko Harju & Tuomas Matikka, 2013. "The elasticity of taxable income and income-shifting between tax bases: what is “real” and what is not?," Working Papers 1313, Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation.
    10. Korkeamaki, Timo & Liljeblom, Eva & Pasternack, Daniel, 2010. "Tax reform and payout policy: Do shareholder clienteles or payout policy adjust?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 572-587, September.
    11. Jarkko Harju & Tuomas Matikka, 2016. "Business owners and income-shifting: evidence from Finland," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 115-136, January.
    12. Seppo Kari & Hanna Karikallio & Jukka Pirttilä, 2009. "The Impact of Dividend Taxation on Dividends and Investment: New Evidence Based on a Natural Experiment," CESifo Working Paper Series 2756, CESifo.
    13. Jarkko Harju & Seppo Kari, 2017. "Dividend Taxes and Decisions of MNEs: Evidence from a Finnish Tax Reform," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(1), pages 45-77.
    14. Jacob, Martin, 2021. "Dividend taxes, employment, and firm productivity," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    15. Jarkko Harju & Tuomas Matikka, 2014. "Business Owners and Income-Shifting between Tax Bases: Empirical Evidence from a Finnish Tax Reform," CESifo Working Paper Series 5090, CESifo.
    16. Sundvik Dennis, 2017. "A review of earnings management in private firms in response to tax rate changes," Nordic Tax Journal, Sciendo, vol. 2017(1), pages 151-161, January.
    17. Annette Alstadsater & Knut Reidar Wangen, 2010. "Small Corporations' Income Shifting through Choice of Ownership Structure - a Norwegian Case," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 73-87, Autumn.
    18. Jarkko Harju & Tuomas Matikka, 2016. "Business owners and income-shifting: evidence from Finland," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 115-136, January.
    19. Jacob, Martin, 2010. "Taxation, Dividends, and Share Repurchases: Taking Evidence Global," Working Paper Series, Center for Fiscal Studies 2010:10, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    20. Matikka, Tuomas, 2014. "Essays on behavioral responses to income taxes," Research Reports P68, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    21. Andrew C. Chang, 2018. "Nothing is Certain Except Death and Taxes : The Lack of Policy Uncertainty from Expiring \"Temporary\" Taxes," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-041, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm

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