IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/idn/journl/v25y2022i1bp25-36.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Note On Public Debt-Private Investment Nexus In Emerging Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Dinci J. Penzin

    (Central Bank of Nigeria & Nile University)

  • Afees Salisu

    (University of Pretoria)

  • Benedict N.Akanegbu

    (Nile Universit)

Abstract

We examine the effect of public debt on private investment in selected emerging economies. Using a panel threshold regression model, we estimate a threshold value of about 3 percent, on average, below which public debt stimulates private investment. Our additional analysis involving selected developed economies suggests that the crowding out effect is less evident relative to the emerging economies as higher public debt stocks do not seem to significantly undermine their private investments. These results have implications for debt sustainability and maintaining a reasonable public debt–GDP ratio is crucial for sustainable investment growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Dinci J. Penzin & Afees Salisu & Benedict N.Akanegbu, 2022. "A Note On Public Debt-Private Investment Nexus In Emerging Economies," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 25(1), pages 25-36, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:idn:journl:v:25:y:2022:i:1b:p:25-36
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v25i1.1988
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://bulletin.bmeb-bi.org/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1881&context=bmeb
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v25i1.1988?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eberhardt, Markus & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2015. "Public debt and growth: Heterogeneity and non-linearity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 45-58.
    2. Bert Hofman & Helmut Reisen, 1991. "Some evidence on debt-related determinants of investment and consumption in heavily indebted countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 127(2), pages 281-299, June.
    3. Kassouri, Yacouba & Altıntaş, Halil & Alancioğlu, Erdal & Kacou, Kacou Yves Thierry, 2021. "New insights on the debt-growth nexus: A combination of the interactive fixed effects and panel threshold approach," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 40-55.
    4. Ardagna Silvia & Caselli Francesco & Lane Timothy, 2007. "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-35, August.
    5. Chang, Tsangyao & Chiang, Gengnan, 2011. "Regime-switching effects of debt on real GDP per capita the case of Latin American and Caribbean countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2404-2408.
    6. Liaqat, Zara, 2019. "Does government debt crowd out capital formation? A dynamic approach using panel VAR," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 86-90.
    7. Antonio Antunes & Valerio Ercolani, 2020. "Public debt expansions and the dynamics of the household borrowing constraint," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 1-32, July.
    8. Krugman, Paul, 1988. "Financing vs. forgiving a debt overhang," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 253-268, November.
    9. Kremer, Stephanie & Bick, Alexander & Nautz, Dieter, 2009. "Inflation and growth: New evidence from a dynamic panel threshold analysis," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2009-036, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    10. Mabula, Salyungu & Mutasa, Felician, 2019. "The Effect of Public Debt on Private Investment in Tanzania," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 7(1), January.
    11. Michael Takudzwa Pasara & Rufaro Garidzirai, 2020. "Causality Effects among Gross Capital Formation, Unemployment and Economic Growth in South Africa," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-12, April.
    12. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    13. Qunyong Wang, 2015. "Fixed-effect panel threshold model using Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 15(1), pages 121-134, March.
    14. Grekou, Carl, 2015. "Revisiting the nexus between currency misalignments and growth in the CFA Zone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 142-154.
    15. Ahmad A. Al-Majali, 2018. "Crowding Out Effect of Public Borrowing: The Case of Jordan," International Review of Management and Marketing, Econjournals, vol. 8(1), pages 119-125.
    16. Eisner, Robert, 1992. "Deficits: Which, How Much, and So What?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 295-298, May.
    17. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    18. Siew Yee Lau & Ai Lian Tan & Chung Yee Liew, 2019. "The Asymmetric Link between Public Debt and Private Investment in Malaysia," Malaysian Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Malaya & Malaysian Economic Association, vol. 56(2), pages 327-342, December.
    19. Stephanie Kremer & Alexander Bick & Dieter Nautz, 2013. "Inflation and growth: new evidence from a dynamic panel threshold analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 861-878, April.
    20. Bandiera, Luca & Tsiropoulos, Vasileios, 2020. "A Framework to Assess Debt Sustainability under the Belt and Road Initiative," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    21. Law, Siong Hook & Ng, Chee Hung & Kutan, Ali M. & Law, Zhi Kei, 2021. "Public debt and economic growth in developing countries: Nonlinearity and threshold analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 26-40.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Obaike John Ojeka & Tajudeen Egbetunde & Gideon Oseibibi Okoduwa & Aisha Omobolanle Ojeyode & Mumuni Jimoh & Gideon Oladele Ogunbowale, 2024. "Moderating effect of institutional quality on the influence of debt on investment in sub-Saharan Africa," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-17, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kassouri, Yacouba & Altıntaş, Halil & Alancioğlu, Erdal & Kacou, Kacou Yves Thierry, 2021. "New insights on the debt-growth nexus: A combination of the interactive fixed effects and panel threshold approach," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 40-55.
    2. Waseem Khadim & Saddam Ilyas & Bilal Mehmood, 2016. "Of Inflation and Growth Nexus in BRIMC Economies," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 4(1), pages 32-45, January.
    3. Baum, Anja & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2013. "Debt and growth: New evidence for the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 809-821.
    4. Obaike John Ojeka & Tajudeen Egbetunde & Gideon Oseibibi Okoduwa & Aisha Omobolanle Ojeyode & Mumuni Jimoh & Gideon Oladele Ogunbowale, 2024. "Moderating effect of institutional quality on the influence of debt on investment in sub-Saharan Africa," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-17, December.
    5. Law, Siong Hook & Ng, Chee Hung & Kutan, Ali M. & Law, Zhi Kei, 2021. "Public debt and economic growth in developing countries: Nonlinearity and threshold analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 26-40.
    6. Alsamara, Mouyad & Mrabet, Zouhair & Mimouni, Karim, 2024. "The threshold effects of public debt on economic growth in MENA countries: Do energy endowments matter?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 458-470.
    7. Chung‐Hua Shen & Hsing‐Hua Hsu, 2022. "The determinants of Asian banking crises—Application of the panel threshold logit model," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 248-277, March.
    8. Sy-Hoa Ho & Jamel Saadaoui, 2022. "Bank credit and economic growth: A dynamic threshold panel model for ASEAN countries," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 170, pages 115-128.
    9. Taha Zaghdoudi, 2020. "Threshold Effect in the Relationship Between External Debt and Economic Growth: A Dynamic Panel Threshold Specification," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(2), pages 447-456, June.
    10. Siddiki, Jalal & Bala-Keffi, Ladi R., 2024. "Revisiting the relation between financial inclusion and economic growth: a global analysis using panel threshold regression," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    11. Arcade Ndoricimpa, 2017. "Threshold Effects of Debt on Economic Growth in Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 29(3), pages 471-484, September.
    12. Feng, Yidai & Yuan, Huaxi & Liu, Yaobin, 2023. "The energy-saving effect in the new transformation of urbanization," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 41-59.
    13. Alexander Chudik & Kamiar Mohaddes & M. Hashem Pesaran & Mehdi Raissi, 2017. "Is There a Debt-Threshold Effect on Output Growth?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(1), pages 135-150, March.
    14. Jin, Peizhen & Mangla, Sachin Kumar & Song, Malin, 2022. "The power of innovation diffusion: How patent transfer affects urban innovation quality," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 414-425.
    15. Miao, Ke & Li, Kunpeng & Su, Liangjun, 2020. "Panel threshold models with interactive fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(1), pages 137-170.
    16. Proaño, Christian R. & Schoder, Christian & Semmler, Willi, 2014. "Financial stress, sovereign debt and economic activity in industrialized countries: Evidence from dynamic threshold regressions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 17-37.
    17. Manamba EPAPHRA, 2016. "Nonlinearities in Inflation and Growth Nexus: The Case of Tanzania," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 471-512, September.
    18. Abdul Jalil, 2020. "Debt Sustainability: Economic Growth is the Panacea," PIDE Knowledge Brief 2020:19, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    19. Wang, Ruohan & Xue, Yi & Zheng, Wenping, 2021. "Does high external debt predict lower economic growth? Role of sovereign spreads and institutional quality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    20. Retselisitsoe I. Thamae & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2022. "Nonlinear effects of bank regulation stringency on bank lending in selected sub-Saharan African countries," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 19(5), pages 1219-1237, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt; Investment; Nonlinearity; Threshold regression models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • D25 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice: Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:idn:journl:v:25:y:2022:i:1b:p:25-36. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lutzardo Tobing or Jimmy Kathon (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bigovid.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.