IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/idn/journl/v14y2011i1hp75-99.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long-Run Money and Inflation Neutrality Test in Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • Arintoko

    (Universitas Jenderal Soedirman)

Abstract

This paper investigates long-run neutrality of money and inflation in Indonesia, with due consideration to the order of integration, exogeneity, and cointegration of the money stock-real output and the money stock-price, using annual time-series data. The Fisher-Seater methodology is used to do the task in this research. The empirical results indicate that evidence rejected the long-run neutrality of money (both defined as M1 and M2) with respect to real GDP, showing that it is inconsistent with the classical and neoclassical economics. However, the positive link between the money and price in long run holds for money defined as M1 rather than M2, which consistent with these theories. In particular, besides the positive effect to long-run inflation, monetary expansions have long-run positive effect on real output in the Indonesian economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Arintoko, 2011. "Long-Run Money and Inflation Neutrality Test in Indonesia," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 14(1), pages 75-99, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:idn:journl:v:14:y:2011:i:1h:p:75-99
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v14i1.79
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://bulletin.bmeb-bi.org/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1322&context=bmeb
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v14i1.79?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barbara Roffia & Andrea Zaghini, 2007. "Excess Money Growth and Inflation Dynamics," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 241-280, December.
    2. Serletis, Apostolos & Koustas, Zisimos, 1998. "International Evidence on the Neutrality of Money," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(1), pages 1-25, February.
    3. Noriega, Antonio E., 2004. "Long-run monetary neutrality and the unit-root hypothesis: further international evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 179-197, August.
    4. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    5. Jimmy Ran, 2005. "Is There Long‐Run Money Neutrality Under Different Exchange Rate Regimes?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 361-370, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Asongu, Simplice A., 2014. "A note on the long-run neutrality of monetary policy: new empirics," European Economic Letters, European Economics Letters Group, vol. 3(1), pages 1-6.
    2. Asongu Simplice, 2013. "Does Money Matter in Africa? New Empirics on Long- and Short-run Effects of Monetary Policy on Output and Prices," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 13/005, African Governance and Development Institute..
    3. R. Velazquez & A.E. Noriega & L.M. Soria, 2004. "International Evidence on Monetary Neutrality Under Broken Trend Stationary Models," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 57, Econometric Society.
    4. Simplice Asongu, 2014. "How Would Monetary Policy Matter In The Proposed African Monetary Unions? Evidence From Output And Prices," The African Finance Journal, Africagrowth Institute, vol. 16(2), pages 34-63.
    5. Arintoko & Nunik Kadarwati, 2009. "Is long-run monetary neutral? Evidence from Indonesia," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 1(3), pages 197-214, April.
    6. Simplice Asongu, 2016. "New empirics of monetary policy dynamics: evidence from the CFA franc zones," African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 7(2), pages 164-204, June.
    7. Chin-Hong PUAH,* & Muzafar Shah HABIBULLAH** & Shazali Abu MANSOR*, 2002. "Some Empirical Evidence On The Quantity Theoretic Proposition Of Money In Asean-5," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 18, pages 31-47.
    8. Puah, Chin-Hong & Habibullah, M.S. & Abu Mansor, Shazali, 2008. "On the Long-Run Monetary Neutrality: Evidence from the SEACEN Countries," MPRA Paper 31762, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Noriega, Antonio E. & Soria, Luis M. & Velázquez, Ramón, 2008. "International evidence on stochastic and deterministic monetary neutrality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1261-1275, November.
    10. Hwang, Chiun-Lin, 1989. "Optimal monetary policy in an open macroeconomic model with rational expectation," ISU General Staff Papers 1989010108000010197, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    11. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller & Balázs Égert & Oliver Röhn, 2010. "Counter-cyclical Economic Policy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 760, OECD Publishing.
    12. Théret, Bruno, 2011. "Du keynésianisme au libertarianisme.La place de la monnaie dans les transformations du savoir économique autorisé," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 10.
    13. Alexander W. Salter & William J. Luther, 2016. "The Optimal Austrian Business Cycle Theory," Advances in Austrian Economics, in: Studies in Austrian Macroeconomics, volume 20, pages 45-60, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    14. Bennet T. McCallum, 1984. "A Linearized Version of Lucas's Neutrality Model," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 17(1), pages 138-145, February.
    15. George-Marios Angeletos & Alessandro Pavan, 2009. "Policy with Dispersed Information," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(1), pages 11-60, March.
    16. Froyen, Richard T & Waud, Roger N, 1988. "Real Business Cycles and the Lucas Paradigm," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(2), pages 183-201, April.
    17. George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian, 2018. "Forward Guidance without Common Knowledge," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2477-2512, September.
    18. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Saten Kumar, 2018. "How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2671-2713, September.
    19. Josh Ryan-Collins, 2015. "Is Monetary Financing Inflationary? A Case Study of the Canadian Economy, 1935-75," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_848, Levy Economics Institute.
    20. Ftiti, Zied & Aguir, Abdelkader & Smida, Mounir, 2017. "Time-inconsistency and expansionary business cycle theories: What does matter for the central bank independence–inflation relationship?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 215-227.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    long-run neutrality of money; inflation; unit root; exogeneity; cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:idn:journl:v:14:y:2011:i:1h:p:75-99. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lutzardo Tobing or Jimmy Kathon (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bigovid.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.