IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ibn/ijefaa/v9y2017i3p91-107.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of Technical Analysis on Stock Returns in an Emerging Capital Markets (ECM¡¯s) Country: Theoretical and Empirical Study

Author

Listed:
  • Mohamed Masry

Abstract

Technical analysis, even if deliberated by some as purely conjecture, is still generally acknowledged as additional information to main brokerage companies. There are existent two reasons for the achievement of technical analysis and why its success is still debated: (1) stock return predictability stems from efficient markets that can be analysed by time-varying equilibrium returns, and (2) stock return predictability forms from prices wandering apart from their fundamental valuations. Fundamentally, both explanations show some kind of overall market inefficiency where investors are capable of exploiting. Therefore, technical analysis derived its importance from its ability to train investors to take investment decision based on historical trends of securities prices. To help find answers to the issues raised and to structure the study, the following general research question is set: is it possible for technical analysis to achieve abnormal returns in an Emerging Capital Markets (ECM¡¯s) country, more specifically, the Egyptian Stock Exchange? If yes, hence it could be possibly used to help individual investors to take effective investment decision. By means of theoretical and empirical investigation, this study provides significant evidences that technical analysis achieved abnormal returns in inefficiency periods. This study suggests that simple trading rules, more specifically; the simple moving average beat the standard buy-and-hold strategy for the Egyptian stock exchange.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohamed Masry, 2017. "The Impact of Technical Analysis on Stock Returns in an Emerging Capital Markets (ECM¡¯s) Country: Theoretical and Empirical Study," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(3), pages 91-107, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:9:y:2017:i:3:p:91-107
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/ijef/article/view/65493/35952
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/ijef/article/view/65493
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael J. Sager & Mark P. Taylor, 2006. "Under the microscope: the structure of the foreign exchange market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 81-95.
    2. Ratner, Mitchell & Leal, Ricardo P. C., 1999. "Tests of technical trading strategies in the emerging equity markets of Latin America and Asia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(12), pages 1887-1905, December.
    3. Louis P. Lukac & B. Wade Brorsen, 1989. "The usefulness of historical data in selecting parameters for technical trading systems," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 55-65, February.
    4. repec:bla:jfinan:v:55:y:2000:i:4:p:1705-1770 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. West, Kenneth D, 1996. "Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1067-1084, September.
    6. Day, Theodore E. & Wang, Pingying, 2002. "Dividends, nonsynchronous prices, and the returns from trading the Dow Jones Industrial Average," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 431-454, November.
    7. Muhannad A. Atmeh & Ian M. Dobbs, 2006. "Technical analysis and the stochastic properties of the Jordanian stock market index return," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 119-140, June.
    8. Kwon, Ki-Yeol & Kish, Richard J., 2002. "A comparative study of technical trading strategies and return predictability: an extension of Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992) using NYSE and NASDAQ indices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 611-631.
    9. Rajagopal, 2015. "Market Trend Analysis," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: The Butterfly Effect in Competitive Markets, chapter 4, pages 95-118, Palgrave Macmillan.
    10. Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Speculative Prices and Popular Models," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 55-65, Spring.
    11. Oberlechner, Thomas, 2001. "Importance of Technical and Fundamental Analysis in the European Foreign Exchange Market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(1), pages 81-93, January.
    12. Gunasekarage, Abeyratna & Power, David M., 2001. "The profitability of moving average trading rules in South Asian stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 17-33, March.
    13. Froot, Kenneth A & Scharftstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1992. "Herd on the Street: Informational Inefficiencies in a Market with Short-Term Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1461-1484, September.
    14. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2143-2184, December.
    15. J. Kung, James & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2009. "Profitability of Technical Analysis in the Singapore Stock Market: before and after the Asian Financial Crisis," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 24, pages 135-150.
    16. Andrew W. Lo & Harry Mamaysky & Jiang Wang, 2000. "Foundations of Technical Analysis: Computational Algorithms, Statistical Inference, and Empirical Implementation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1705-1765, August.
    17. Bessembinder, Hendrik & Chan, Kalok, 1995. "The profitability of technical trading rules in the Asian stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 3(2-3), pages 257-284, July.
    18. Thomas Gehrig & Lukas Menkhoff, 2006. "Extended evidence on the use of technical analysis in foreign exchange," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 327-338.
    19. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    20. Gottschlich, Jörg & Hinz, Oliver, 2014. "A Decision Support System for Stock Investment Recommendations Using Collective Wisdom," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 69939, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    21. Ki-Yeol Kwon & Richard Kish, 2002. "Technical trading strategies and return predictability: NYSE," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(9), pages 639-653.
    22. Curcio, Riccardo, et al, 1997. "Do Technical Trading Rules Generate Profits? Conclusions from the Intra-day Foreign Exchange Market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 267-280, October.
    23. Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. "Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-1764, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mohammed Bouasabah & Oshamah Ibrahim Khalaf, 2023. "A Technical Indicator for a Short-term Trading Decision in the NASDAQ Market," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 27(3), pages 1-13, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cheol‐Ho Park & Scott H. Irwin, 2007. "What Do We Know About The Profitability Of Technical Analysis?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 786-826, September.
    2. Lukas Menkhoff & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 936-972, December.
    3. Farias Nazário, Rodolfo Toríbio & e Silva, Jéssica Lima & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim & Kimura, Herbert, 2017. "A literature review of technical analysis on stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 115-126.
    4. Day, Min-Yuh & Ni, Yensen & Huang, Paoyu, 2019. "Trading as sharp movements in oil prices and technical trading signals emitted with big data concerns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 525(C), pages 349-372.
    5. Strobel, Marcus & Auer, Benjamin R., 2018. "Does the predictive power of variable moving average rules vanish over time and can we explain such tendencies?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 168-184.
    6. Michael D. McKenzie, 2007. "Technical Trading Rules in Emerging Markets and the 1997 Asian Currency Crises," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(4), pages 46-73, August.
    7. Matheus José Silva de Souza & Danilo Guimarães Franco Ramos & Marina Garcia Pena & Vinicius Amorim Sobreiro & Herbert Kimura, 2018. "Examination of the profitability of technical analysis based on moving average strategies in BRICS," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 4(1), pages 1-18, December.
    8. Stephan Schulmeister, 2009. "Profitability of technical stock trading: Has it moved from daily to intraday data?," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(4), pages 190-201, October.
    9. Chen, Cheng-Wei & Huang, Chin-Sheng & Lai, Hung-Wei, 2009. "The impact of data snooping on the testing of technical analysis: An empirical study of Asian stock markets," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 580-591, September.
    10. Jacinta Chan Phooi M’ng & Rozaimah Zainudin, 2016. "Assessing the Efficacy of Adjustable Moving Averages Using ASEAN-5 Currencies," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(8), pages 1-19, August.
    11. Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "The Interaction Between the Aggregate Behaviour of Technical Trading Systems and Stock Price Dynamics," WIFO Working Papers 290, WIFO.
    12. Marshall, Ben R. & Cahan, Rochester H. & Cahan, Jared M., 2008. "Does intraday technical analysis in the U.S. equity market have value?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 199-210, March.
    13. Konstandinos Chourmouziadis & Dimitra K. Chourmouziadou & Prodromos D. Chatzoglou, 2021. "Embedding Four Medium-Term Technical Indicators to an Intelligent Stock Trading Fuzzy System for Predicting: A Portfolio Management Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(4), pages 1183-1216, April.
    14. Chang, Eui Jung & Lima, Eduardo Jose Araujo & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2004. "Testing for predictability in emerging equity markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 295-316, September.
    15. Ülkü, Numan & Prodan, Eugeniu, 2013. "Drivers of technical trend-following rules' profitability in world stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 214-229.
    16. Michael McAleer & John Suen & Wing Keung Wong, 2016. "Profiteering from the Dot-Com Bubble, Subprime Crisis and Asian Financial Crisis," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 257-279, September.
    17. Guanqing Liu, 2019. "Technical Trading Behaviour: Evidence from Chinese Rebar Futures Market," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(2), pages 669-704, August.
    18. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 2011. "Technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Working Papers 2011-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    19. Marshall, Ben R. & Cahan, Rochester H., 2005. "Is technical analysis profitable on a stock market which has characteristics that suggest it may be inefficient?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 384-398, September.
    20. Yen-Sen Ni & Jen-Tsai Lee & Yi-Ching Liao, 2013. "Do variable length moving average trading rules matter during a financial crisis period?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 135-141, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    technical analysis; Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH); Emerging Capital Markets (ECM¡¯s); behavioural theories; simple moving average rules; Egyptian stock exchange;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:9:y:2017:i:3:p:91-107. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Canadian Center of Science and Education (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepflch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.