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Dividend Changes and Future Profitability: Evidence from the Turkish Stock Market

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  • Eyup Kadioglu
  • Nurcan Ocal

Abstract

Most of the previous studies on dividends in Turkey have focused on the effects of dividend announcements. There has been no study investigating the relation between dividend changes and the future profitability of firms. This study investigates this relation by using both ordinary and panel data regression on a data set consisting of 1,239 dividend payouts from 123 companies listed in Borsa Istanbul during the period 2004-2014. This study is unable to demonstrate that dividend changes are related to changes in future earnings. No evidence is found to support the dividend signaling theory, which claims that dividends serve as indicators of the future profitability of firms. On the other hand, future profitability is found to be strongly correlated with profitability in the previous year.

Suggested Citation

  • Eyup Kadioglu & Nurcan Ocal, 2016. "Dividend Changes and Future Profitability: Evidence from the Turkish Stock Market," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(3), pages 196-205, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:8:y:2016:i:3:p:196-205
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Siew-Peng Lee & Mansor Isa & Wei-Ling Lim, 2012. "Dividend Changes and Future Profitability: Evidence From Malaysia," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 8(2), pages 93-110.
    4. Gonedes, Nj, 1978. "Corporate Signaling, External Accounting, And Capital-Market Equilibrium - Evidence On Dividends, Income, And Extraordinary Items," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 26-79.
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    8. Young M. Choi & Hyo K. Ju & Young K. Park, 2011. "Do dividend changes predict the future profitability of firms?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 51(4), pages 869-891, December.
    9. Benartzi, Shlomo & Michaely, Roni & Thaler, Richard H, 1997. "Do Changes in Dividends Signal the Future or the Past?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1007-1034, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Małgorzata Snarska & Tomasz K. Wisniewski & Andrzej Zygula, 2020. "Are Emerging Markets Efficient? Evidence from Informational Content of Dividend Changes in Polish Stock Market," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 687-717.
    2. Faruk Bostanci & Eyup Kadioglu & Guven Sayilgan, 2018. "Determinants of Dividend Payout Decisions: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis of Turkish Stock Market," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-16, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    dividend changes; future profitability; information content of dividend; dividend signaling theory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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