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Climate Variability and Agricultural Loan Delinquency in the US

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  • Denis Nadolnyak
  • Valentina Hartarska
  • Xuan Shen

Abstract

Inter-annual climate variability in the Southeastern US that affects farm productivity and cash flows is largely dependent on the predictable El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. In this paper, we estimate the association between the ENSO anomalies and the performance of agricultural loan portfolios of the Farm Credit System (FCS) institutions - the largest agricultural lender in this region. We find that, compared to neutral years, the share of delinquent loans in the FCS portfolio decreases by 1.5 to 2 percentage points following La Nina years and increases by 1.5 to 2 percentage points following El Nino years. These delinquencies are generally resolved because the impact on loan write-offs is much smaller, although statistically significant which suggests that the FCS institutions have well-diversified portfolios. The results also suggest that agricultural insurance markets are complementary to credit markets, that land values at loan origination have a positive impact on delinquencies, and that loan write-offs decrease with the lender¡¯s size.

Suggested Citation

  • Denis Nadolnyak & Valentina Hartarska & Xuan Shen, 2016. "Climate Variability and Agricultural Loan Delinquency in the US," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(12), pages 238-249, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:8:y:2016:i:12:p:238-249
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wolfram Schlenker & Michael J. Roberts & David B. Lobell, 2013. "US maize adaptability," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(8), pages 690-691, August.
    2. Anthony C. Fisher & W. Michael Hanemann & Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2012. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3749-3760, December.
    3. Valentina Hartarska & Claudio Gonzalez-Vega, 2005. "Credit Counseling and Mortgage Termination by Low-Income Households," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 227-243, April.
    4. Hartarska, Valentina & Gonzalez-Vega, Claudio, 2006. "Evidence on the effect of credit counseling on mortgage loan default by low-income households," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 63-79, March.
    5. Matthew E. Kahn, 2005. "The Death Toll from Natural Disasters: The Role of Income, Geography, and Institutions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 271-284, May.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Frederick Murdoch Quaye & Denis Nadolnyak & Valentina Hartarska, 2017. "Factors Affecting Farm Loan Delinquency in the Southeast," Research in Applied Economics, Macrothink Institute, vol. 9(4), pages 75-92, December.
    2. Bretford Griffin & Valentina Hartarska & Denis Nadolnyak, 2019. "Retirement Age Farmers¡¯ Exit and Disinvestment from Farming," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(12), pages 136-136, December.
    3. Denis Nadolnyak & Valentina Hartarska & Bretford Griffin, 2019. "The Impacts of Economic, Demographic, and Weather Factors on the Exit of Beginning Farmers in the United States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-17, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    loan delinquency and default; farm credit system; climate variability and climate change; ENSO; farm debt; Southeastern USA;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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