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Speculation in Food and Commodities - A Research Report: A Critical Discussion of the Econometric Research Method and an Alternative Analysis

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  • Christian A. Conrad

Abstract

This paper is a report of the research on the effect of speculation on commodities and food since deregulation. Econometrics can be applied to show how speculation influences price and vice versa. However, there is no clear empirical picture. In this paper, we examine the reasons for the lack of empirical clarity and arrive at a critical discussion of the econometric research approach. As an alternative approach, we use scientific logic on the basis of statistical data and other verifiable facts as method of investigation. This method allows us to derive the influence of speculation on spot prices. We find a negative impact of speculation why regulation is necessary.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian A. Conrad, 2023. "Speculation in Food and Commodities - A Research Report: A Critical Discussion of the Econometric Research Method and an Alternative Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 15(6), pages 1-14, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:15:y:2023:i:6:p:14
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christopher L. Gilbert, 2010. "How to Understand High Food Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 398-425, June.
    2. Ing-Haw Cheng & Andrei Kirilenko & Wei Xiong, 2015. "Convective Risk Flows in Commodity Futures Markets," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(5), pages 1733-1781.
    3. Huchet, Nicolas & Fam, Papa Gueye, 2016. "The role of speculation in international futures markets on commodity prices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 49-65.
    4. Yasunari Inamura & Tomonori Kimata & Takeshi Kimura & Takashi Muto, 2011. "Recent Surge in Global Commodity Prices-- Impact of financialization of commodities and globally accommodative monetary conditions --," Bank of Japan Review Series 11-E-2, Bank of Japan.
    5. Christian A. Conrad, 2014. "Commodity and Food Speculation, Is There a Need for Regulation? A Discussion of the International Research," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 1(2), pages 58-64, November.
    6. Nicolas Huchet & Papa Gueye Fam, 2016. "The role of speculation in international futures markets on commodity prices," Post-Print hal-03591560, HAL.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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