IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ibn/ijefaa/v12y2020i11p48.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Research on the Development of China’s Peer-to-Peer Online Lending Industry Based on System Dynamics Simulation

Author

Listed:
  • Lingjuan Xu
  • Zehua Guan
  • Lumei Ding
  • Qiucheng Tao

Abstract

This paper divides the economic operating system of peer-to-peer online lending industry into industry subsystem, investment and financing subsystem and macroeconomic subsystem. By establishing a system dynamics model and conducting simulation analysis, this paper explores the influence and trend characteristics of the monetary policy, regulatory policies and investment and financing expectations to China’s P2P industry development. Tight monetary policy promotes the development of the P2P industry in the short term, but it reduces the scale of the industry in the long run. A strong regulatory policy leads to an outbreak of industry risks in the short term and stabilizes the industry in the long run. Changes in investment and financing expectations make the scale experience the process of falling, slight rising to rapid decline. Based on the simulation results, the policy enlightenment and suggestions can be obtained to promote the steady development of P2P online loan industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Lingjuan Xu & Zehua Guan & Lumei Ding & Qiucheng Tao, 2020. "Research on the Development of China’s Peer-to-Peer Online Lending Industry Based on System Dynamics Simulation," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(11), pages 1-48, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:12:y:2020:i:11:p:48
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/ijef/article/download/0/0/43883/46141
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/ijef/article/view/0/43883
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Juanjuan Zhang & Peng Liu, 2012. "Rational Herding in Microloan Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(5), pages 892-912, May.
    2. Daniela Gabor & Sally Brooks, 2017. "The digital revolution in financial inclusion: international development in the fintech era," New Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 423-436, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Aiping & Urquía-Grande, Elena & López-Sánchez, Pilar & Rodríguez-López, Ángel, 2023. "Research into microfinance and ICTs: A bibliometric analysis," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    2. Prince Hikouatcha & Alain Gilles Tagne Foka & Armand Depesquidoux Fossi & Simplice A Asongu, 2024. "Empirical investigation of the Fintech and financial literacy nexus: Small business managers’ insights in Cameroon," African Journal of Science, Technology, Innovation and Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 219-237, February.
    3. Ferdinand Thies & Sören Wallbach & Michael Wessel & Markus Besler & Alexander Benlian, 2022. "Initial coin offerings and the cryptocurrency hype - the moderating role of exogenous and endogenous signals," Electronic Markets, Springer;IIM University of St. Gallen, vol. 32(3), pages 1691-1705, September.
    4. Ruomeng Cui & Dennis J. Zhang & Achal Bassamboo, 2019. "Learning from Inventory Availability Information: Evidence from Field Experiments on Amazon," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(3), pages 1216-1235, March.
    5. Tan, Yee Heng & Reddy, Srinivas K., 2020. "Crowdfunding Platforms: Ecosystem and Evolution," Foundations and Trends(R) in Marketing, now publishers, vol. 14(2), pages 53-172, July.
    6. Jiali Liu & Xinran Xie & Yu Duan & Liang Tang, 2023. "Peer effects and the mechanisms in corporate capital structure: evidence from Chinese listed firms," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 14(1), pages 295-326, March.
    7. Gallego-Losada, María-Jesús & Montero-Navarro, Antonio & García-Abajo, Elisa & Gallego-Losada, Rocío, 2023. "Digital financial inclusion. Visualizing the academic literature," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    8. Peterson K. Ozili, 2021. "Financial inclusion research around the world: A review," Forum for Social Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(4), pages 457-479, October.
    9. Jascha-Alexander Koch & Jens Lausen & Moritz Kohlhase, 2021. "Internalizing the externalities of overfunding: an agent-based model approach for analyzing the market dynamics on crowdfunding platforms," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 91(9), pages 1387-1430, November.
    10. Guangyou Zhou & Kuangxiong Gong & Sumei Luo & Guohu Xu, 2018. "Inclusive Finance, Human Capital and Regional Economic Growth in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-20, April.
    11. Kräussl, Roman & Kräussl, Zsofia & Pollet, Joshua & Rinne, Kalle, 2024. "The performance of marketplace lenders," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    12. Yeh, Jen-Yin & Chiu, Hsin-Yu & Huang, Jhih-Huei, 2024. "Predicting failure of P2P lending platforms through machine learning: The case in China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    13. Chul Kim & P. K. Kannan & Michael Trusov & Andrea Ordanini, 2020. "Modeling Dynamics in Crowdfunding," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(2), pages 339-365, March.
    14. Langley, David J. & Hoeve, Maarten C. & Ortt, J. Roland & Pals, Nico & van der Vecht, Bob, 2014. "Patterns of Herding and their Occurrence in an Online Setting," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 16-25.
    15. Nan Hao & Mingxing Ji, 2023. "Development of Platform Economy and Urban–Rural Income Gap: Theoretical Deductions and Empirical Analyses," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-25, May.
    16. Mataigne, Virginie & Meoli, Michele & Vanacker, Tom & Vismara, Silvio, 2025. "False signaling by platform team members and post-campaign venture outcomes: Evidence from an equity crowdfunding platform," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 40(1).
    17. You-Kyung Lee, 2021. "Impacts of Digital Technostress and Digital Technology Self-Efficacy on Fintech Usage Intention of Chinese Gen Z Consumers," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-15, April.
    18. Štefan Lyócsa & Petra Vašaničová & Branka Hadji Misheva & Marko Dávid Vateha, 2022. "Default or profit scoring credit systems? Evidence from European and US peer-to-peer lending markets," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-21, December.
    19. repec:zbw:bofitp:2019_022 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Brendan Whitty & Jessica Sklair & Paul Robert Gilbert & Emma Mawdsley & Jo‐Anna Russon & Olivia Taylor, 2023. "Outsourcing the Business of Development: The Rise of For‐profit Consultancies in the UK Aid Sector," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 54(4), pages 892-917, July.
    21. Sungsik Park & Woochoel Shin & Jinhong Xie, 2021. "The Fateful First Consumer Review," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(3), pages 481-507, May.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:12:y:2020:i:11:p:48. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Canadian Center of Science and Education (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepflch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.