IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/hur/ijarbs/v6y2016i10p262-272.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Efficient Market Hypothesis: Evidence from Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Yunus Kilic
  • Mehmet Fatih Bugan

Abstract

This paper investigates the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) for ISE30, ISE50, ISE100 and ISE Composite indices with unit root tests which were adapted for the non-linear ESTAR process. Firstly, Harvey et al. (2008) linearity test is employed. The test results indicate that all indices have non-linear behavior. Afterwards, non-linear unit root tests developed by Kapetanios et al. (2003) and Kruse (2011) were conducted. While the Kapetanios et al. (2003) test accepts the existence of EMH for all indices, the Kruse (2011) test which is relatively more recent rejects the hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Yunus Kilic & Mehmet Fatih Bugan, 2016. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis: Evidence from Turkey," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 6(10), pages 262-272, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:hur:ijarbs:v:6:y:2016:i:10:p:262-272
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hrmars.com/hrmars_papers/The_Efficient_Market_Hypothesis_Evidence_from_Turkey1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://hrmars.com/hrmars_papers/The_Efficient_Market_Hypothesis_Evidence_from_Turkey1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Myung Jig Kim & Charles R. Nelson & Richard Startz, 1991. "Mean Reversion in Stock Prices? A Reappraisal of the Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 515-528.
    2. Shiller, Robert J. & Perron, Pierre, 1985. "Testing the random walk hypothesis : Power versus frequency of observation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 381-386.
    3. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    4. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
    5. Taylor, Mark P & Peel, David A & Sarno, Lucio, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1015-1042, November.
    6. Lo, Andrew W. & MacKinlay, A. Craig, 1989. "The size and power of the variance ratio test in finite samples : A Monte Carlo investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 203-238, February.
    7. Ercan Balaban, 1995. "Informational Efficiency of the Istanbul Securities Exchange and Some Rationale for Public Regulation," Discussion Papers 9502, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    8. Maria Rosa Borges, 2010. "Efficient market hypothesis in European stock markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(7), pages 711-726.
    9. Yavuz, Nilgün Çil & Yilanci, Veli, 2012. "Testing For Nonlinearity In G7 Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 69-79, September.
    10. Antonios Antoniou & Nuray Ergul & Phil Holmes, 1997. "Market Efficiency, Thin Trading and Non‐linear Behaviour: Evidence from an Emerging Market," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 3(2), pages 175-190, July.
    11. Schwert, G. William, 2003. "Anomalies and market efficiency," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 939-974, Elsevier.
    12. Robinson Kruse, 2011. "A new unit root test against ESTAR based on a class of modified statistics," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 71-85, February.
    13. Oktay Tas & Salim Dursunoglu, 2005. "Testing Random Walk Hypothesis For Istanbul Stock Exchange," International Trade and Finance Association Conference Papers 1035, International Trade and Finance Association.
    14. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
    15. Harvey David I & Leybourne Stephen J & Xiao Bin, 2008. "A Powerful Test for Linearity When the Order of Integration is Unknown," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-24, September.
    16. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan & Stephan Popp & Huson Ali Ahmed, 2015. "Is the efficient market hypothesis day-of-the-week dependent? Evidence from the banking sector," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(23), pages 2359-2378, May.
    17. Muradoglu, Yaz Gulnur & Metin, Kivilcim, 1996. "Efficiency of the Turkish Stock Exchange with respect to monetary variables: A cointegration analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 566-576, May.
    18. Sarantis, Nicholas, 1999. "Modeling non-linearities in real effective exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 27-45, January.
    19. Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-879, August.
    20. Abadir, Karim M. & Distaso, Walter, 2007. "Testing joint hypotheses when one of the alternatives is one-sided," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 695-718, October.
    21. Kan, Denis & Andreosso-O'Callaghan, B., 2007. "Examination of the efficient market hypothesis--the case of post-crisis Asia Pacific countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 294-313, April.
    22. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    23. Gozbasi, Onur & Kucukkaplan, Ilhan & Nazlioglu, Saban, 2014. "Re-examining the Turkish stock market efficiency: Evidence from nonlinear unit root tests," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 381-384.
    24. Graham Smith & Hyun-Jung Ryoo, 2003. "Variance ratio tests of the random walk hypothesis for European emerging stock markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 290-300.
    25. Adnan KASMAN & Berna KIRKULAK, 2007. "Türk Hisse Senedi Piyasası Etkin mi? Yapısal Kırılmalı Birim Kök Testlerinin Uygulanması," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 22(253), pages 68-78.
    26. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "The out-of-sample forecasting performance of nonlinear models of real exchange rate behavior," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 341-361.
    27. Harry V. Roberts, 1959. "Stock‐Market “Patterns” And Financial Analysis: Methodological Suggestions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mehmet Altuntaş & Emre Kılıç & Şevket Pazarcı & Alican Umut, 2022. "Borsa İstanbul Alt Endekslerinde Etkin Piyasa Hipotezinin Test Edilmesi: Fourier Kırılmalı ve Doğrusal Olmayan Birim Kök Testlerinden Kanıtlar," Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance, Ersan ERSOY, vol. 7(1), pages 169-185.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gozbasi, Onur & Kucukkaplan, Ilhan & Nazlioglu, Saban, 2014. "Re-examining the Turkish stock market efficiency: Evidence from nonlinear unit root tests," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 381-384.
    2. Erdas Mehmet Levent, 2019. "Validity of Weak-Form Market Efficiency in Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs): Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear Unit Root Tests," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 19(4), pages 399-428, December.
    3. Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Regis, Paulo José, 2013. "Purchasing power parity in OECD countries: Nonlinear unit root tests revisited," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 343-346.
    4. Robinson Kruse & Michael Frömmel & Lukas Menkhoff & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2012. "What do we know about real exchange rate nonlinearities?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 457-474, October.
    5. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    6. Robinson Kruse, 2011. "A new unit root test against ESTAR based on a class of modified statistics," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 71-85, February.
    7. Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan & Everton Dockery, 2021. "Testing for efficiency in the Saudi stock market: does corporate governance change matter?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 61-90, July.
    8. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Hsu, Chi-Sheng, 2016. "Threshold, smooth transition and mean reversion in inflation: New evidence from European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 23-36.
    9. Omay, Nazli C. & Karadagli, Ece C., 2010. "Testing Weak Form Market Efficiency for Emerging Economies: A Nonlinear Approach," MPRA Paper 27312, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei & Hsieh, Chun-Kuei, 2021. "Facing up to the polysemy of purchasing power parity: New international evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 247-265.
    11. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2009. "Variance‐Ratio Tests Of Random Walk: An Overview," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 503-527, July.
    12. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 2012_047.
    13. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2014. "Smooth transition, non-linearity and current account sustainability: Evidence from the European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 541-554.
    14. Ashok Chanabasangouda Patil & Shailesh Rastogi, 2019. "Time-Varying Price–Volume Relationship and Adaptive Market Efficiency: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, June.
    15. Juan Cuestas & Dean Garratt, 2011. "Is real GDP per capita a stationary process? Smooth transitions, nonlinear trends and unit root testing," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 555-563, December.
    16. Malika Neifar & Leila Gharbi, 2022. "Weak EMH and Canadian stock markets: evidence from linear and nonlinear unit root tests," Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 14(4), pages 629-651, December.
    17. Müge Özdemir, 2022. "Analyzing the Efficient Market Hypothesis with the Structural Break and Nonlinear Unit Root Tests: An Application on Borsa Istanbul," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(37), pages 257-282, December.
    18. repec:zbw:bofism:2012_047 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. neifar, malika, 2020. "Efficient Markets Hypothesis in Canada:‎ a comparative study between Islamic and Conventional stock markets ‎," MPRA Paper 103175, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Mubariz Hasanov & Tolga Omay, 2007. "Are the Transition Stock Markets Efficient? Evidence from Non-Linear Unit Root Tests," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 7(2), pages 1-12.
    21. Adewuyi, Adeolu O. & Wahab, Bashir A. & Adeboye, Olusegun S., 2020. "Stationarity of prices of precious and industrial metals using recent unit root methods: Implications for markets’ efficiency," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hur:ijarbs:v:6:y:2016:i:10:p:262-272. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Hassan Danial Aslam (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://hrmars.com/index.php/pages/detail/IJARBSS .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.