IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/hur/ijaraf/v2y2012i3p132-141.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Relationship Between GDP, Inflation and Real Interest Rate with Exchange Rate Fluctuation of African Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Qaisar Abbas

    (COMSATS Institute of Information Technology)

  • Javid Iqbal

    (COMSATS Institute of Information Technology)

  • Ayaz

    (COMSATS Institute of Information Technology)

Abstract

This paper tries to explore the relationship between, gross domestic product, inflation and real interest rate with the exchange rate. 10 African countries with 15 years of data from 1996 to 2010 were used for this study. Three independent variables i.e. inflation, interest rate and Gross Domestic Product were used in order to investigate their relationship which causes exchange rate fluctuations. Three hypotheses served as a basis to analyze the results. Based on the analysis, it is found that that the GDP has significant relationship with the exchange rate where interest and inflation has non-significant relationship with the exchange rates of African countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Qaisar Abbas & Javid Iqbal & Ayaz, 2012. "Relationship Between GDP, Inflation and Real Interest Rate with Exchange Rate Fluctuation of African Countries," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 2(3), pages 132-141, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:hur:ijaraf:v:2:y:2012:i:3:p:132-141
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.hrmars.com/admin/pics/1138.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.hrmars.com/admin/pics/1138.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    2. Patrick Honohan & Philip R. Lane, 2003. "Divergent inflation rates in EMU [‘European financial integration and equity returns: a theory-based assessment’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 357-394.
    3. Rafael R. Rebitzky, 2010. "The Influence Of Fundamentals On Exchange Rates: Findings From Analyses Of News Effects," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(4), pages 680-704, September.
    4. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2000. "New directions for stochastic open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 117-153, February.
    5. Meese, Richard, 1990. "Currency Fluctuations in the Post-Bretton Woods Era," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 117-134, Winter.
    6. Ricardo, David, 1821. "On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, edition 3, number ricardo1821.
    7. Mathias Hoffmann, 2007. "Fixed versus Flexible Exchange Rates: Evidence from Developing Countries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 74(295), pages 425-449, August.
    8. Kanas, Angelos, 2005. "Real or monetary? The US/UK real exchange rate, 1921-2002," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 21-38, January.
    9. McPherson, M.F. & Rakovski, T., 1998. "Exchange Rates and Economic Growth in Kenya: An Econometric Analysis," Papers 651, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
    10. Yu Hsing, 2007. "Exchange rate fluctuations in Croatia: test of uncovered interest rate parity and the open economy model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(11), pages 785-788.
    11. Cavaglia, Stefano M. F. G. & Wolff, Christian C. P., 1996. "A note on the determinants of unexpected exchange rate movements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 179-188, January.
    12. Raymond Vernon, 1966. "International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 80(2), pages 190-207.
    13. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    14. Michael L. Mussa, 1984. "The Theory of Exchange Rate Determination," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 13-78, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Inci, Ahmet Can & Lu, Biao, 2004. "Exchange rates and interest rates: can term structure models explain currency movements?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1595-1624, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pramanik, Subhajit, 2021. "Exchange rate and Economic Growth - a comparative analysis of the possible relationship between them," MPRA Paper 111504, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2021.
    2. Adusei, Michael & Gyapong, Eddie Yaw, 2017. "The impact of macroeconomic variables on exchange rate volatility in Ghana: The Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1428-1444.
    3. Muhammad Kamran Khan & Jian-Zhou Teng & Muhammad Imran Khan, 2019. "Cointegration between macroeconomic factors and the exchange rate USD/CNY," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-15, December.
    4. Oliinyk Oksana & Ksendzuk Valentyna & Sergiienko Larysa & Lehan Iryna, 2020. "Research Of Functional Changes In Foreign Exchange Rate EUR/UAH Under Conditions Of Economic Transformation In Ukraine," Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series, Sciendo, vol. 48(48), pages 141-154, June.
    5. H. F. Tareq Ahmed & Nur Syazwani Mazlan, 2021. "The Impact of Interest Rate on Exchange Rate Within ASEAN Countries: Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear ARDL Frameworks," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 13(1), pages 7-34, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frenkel, Jacob A. & Mussa, Michael L., 1985. "Asset markets, exchange rates and the balance of payments," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 14, pages 679-747, Elsevier.
    2. Jean-François Goux & Charbel Cordahi, 2007. "The international transmission of monetary shocks in a dollarized economy: The case of USA and Lebanon," Post-Print halshs-00174466, HAL.
    3. Bjørnland, Hilde C., 2009. "Monetary policy and exchange rate overshooting: Dornbusch was right after all," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 64-77, September.
    4. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2005. "Monetary policy and the illusionary exchange rate puzzle," Working Paper 2005/11, Norges Bank.
    5. Anthony Landry, 2006. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics: A State-Dependent Pricing Approach," 2006 Meeting Papers 119, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Mathias Hoffmann & Ronald MacDonald, 2003. "A Re-examination of the Link between Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Rate Differentials," CESifo Working Paper Series 894, CESifo.
    7. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2368 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Landry, Anthony, 2009. "Expectations and exchange rate dynamics: A state-dependent pricing approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 60-71, June.
    9. Christophe Blot, 2005. "Sensibilité du taux de change aux chocs monétaires et budgétaires," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03606241, HAL.
    10. Cooke, Dudley, 2010. "Consumption home bias and exchange rate behavior," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 415-425, March.
    11. Oleg Itskhoki & Dmitry Mukhin, 2021. "Exchange Rate Disconnect in General Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(8), pages 2183-2232.
    12. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Thi Hong Hanh Pham, 2018. "Liquidity and exchange rate volatility," Working Papers halshs-01708633, HAL.
    14. Works, Richard Floyd, 2016. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate determinants by market classification: An empirical analysis of Japan and South Korea using the sticky-price monetary theory," MPRA Paper 76382, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2368 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Christophe Blot, 2005. "Sensibilité du taux de change aux chocs monétaires et budgétaires," Post-Print hal-03606241, HAL.
    17. Hoffmann, M. & MacDonald, R., 2001. "A real differential view of equilibrium real exchange rate," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0103, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    18. Rituparna Kar & Nityananda Sarkar, 2006. "Mean and volatility dynamics of Indian rupee/US dollar exchange rate series: an empirical investigation," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 13(1), pages 41-69, March.
    19. Sen Dong, 2006. "Monetary Policy Rules and Exchange Rates:A Structural VAR Identified by No Arbitrage," 2006 Meeting Papers 875, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Jaebeom Kim & Masao Ogaki & Minseok Yang, 2007. "Structural Error Correction Models: A System Method for Linear Rational Expectations Models and an Application to an Exchange Rate Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 2057-2075, December.
    21. Pericoli, Marcello & Taboga, Marco, 2012. "Bond risk premia, macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 42-65.
    22. Scholl, Almuth & Uhlig, Harald, 2008. "New evidence on the puzzles: Results from agnostic identification on monetary policy and exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 1-13, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; inflation; real interest rate; and gross domestic product;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hur:ijaraf:v:2:y:2012:i:3:p:132-141. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Hassan Danial Aslam (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://hrmars.com/index.php/pages/detail/Accounting-Finance-Journal .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.