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Scottish Independence: How Would It Affect The Country'S Foreign Trade?

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  • Lucie COUFALOVA

    (Specialist, Faculty of Business and Administration, Masaryk University, Czech Republic)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to identify the main determinants of Scotland’s foreign trade and, above all, the EU's role in the volume of the country’s exports, as its EU membership is one of the key arguments in the political discourse about independence. The article highlights the results of opinion polls in the country, as well as the relationship between economic integration and political disintegration. The methodological approach adopted is the gravity model of international trade. Given the large number of zero flows present in the data sample, the Tobit model proved to be a more suitable technique for the estimation. The Random effects model estimates are also provided in order to prove the robustness of the estimates. The results of the study allow for more substantiated conclusions about the main determinants of Scotland’s foreign trade, as well as they provide arguments for discussing the implications of Scottish independence.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucie COUFALOVA, 2018. "Scottish Independence: How Would It Affect The Country'S Foreign Trade?," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(2), pages 111-120, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:hrs:journl:v:x:y:2018:i:2:p:111-120
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Scotland; independence; European Union; international trade; gravity model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods

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