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Recent Trends in the Recurrence of North Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation Patterns

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  • Pascal Yiou
  • Julien Cattiaux
  • Aurélien Ribes
  • Robert Vautard
  • Mathieu Vrac

Abstract

A few types of extreme climate events in the North Atlantic region, such as heatwaves, cold spells, or high cumulated precipitation, are connected to the recurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns. Understanding those extreme events requires assessing long-term trends of the atmospheric circulation. This paper presents a set of diagnostics of the intra- and interannual recurrence of atmospheric patterns. Those diagnostics are devised to detect trends in the stability of the circulation and the return period of atmospheric patterns. We detect significant emerging trends in the winter circulation, pointing towards a potential increased predictability. No such signal seems to emerge in the summer. We find that the winter trends in the dominating atmospheric patterns and their recurrences do not depend of the patterns themselves.

Suggested Citation

  • Pascal Yiou & Julien Cattiaux & Aurélien Ribes & Robert Vautard & Mathieu Vrac, 2018. "Recent Trends in the Recurrence of North Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation Patterns," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-8, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:hin:complx:3140915
    DOI: 10.1155/2018/3140915
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. S. Corti & F. Molteni & T. N. Palmer, 1999. "Signature of recent climate change in frequencies of natural atmospheric circulation regimes," Nature, Nature, vol. 398(6730), pages 799-802, April.
    2. Nathalie Schaller & Alison L. Kay & Rob Lamb & Neil R. Massey & Geert Jan van Oldenborgh & Friederike E. L. Otto & Sarah N. Sparrow & Robert Vautard & Pascal Yiou & Ian Ashpole & Andy Bowery & Susan M, 2016. "Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(6), pages 627-634, June.
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    1. Garrido-Perez, Jose M. & Ordóñez, Carlos & Barriopedro, David & García-Herrera, Ricardo & Paredes, Daniel, 2020. "Impact of weather regimes on wind power variability in western Europe," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).

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