IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecoser/v7y2014icp57-65.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A comparison of Markov model-based methods for predicting the ecosystem service value of land use in Wuhan, central China

Author

Listed:
  • Luo, Dong
  • Zhang, Wenting

Abstract

Aggressive human activity and limited natural resources cause complex land use changes that significantly affect the ecosystem service of land types. In this paper, we used the Markov model to predict future changes in the ecosystem service of each land type. We used remote sensing to evaluate the changes in five land use categories, and previously published value coefficients to calculate the ecosystem service value of each land type. Two methods were applied to acquire useful results. The first was called the A-E method. It involved predicting the future changes of areas in land use using the Markov model and multiplying the value coefficients of the ecosystem service. The second was called the B-E method. It involved calculating the initial ecosystem service value of the land type, and then directly predicting these values. From comparison the actual values in 2011 and the stationarity of the values, we determined that the predicted ecosystem service values of the five land types by the A-E method was better than those by the B-E method. Despite considering the annual changes in the coefficients of ecosystem services, our results can reflect the changes in ecosystem services with land use transformation.

Suggested Citation

  • Luo, Dong & Zhang, Wenting, 2014. "A comparison of Markov model-based methods for predicting the ecosystem service value of land use in Wuhan, central China," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 7(C), pages 57-65.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecoser:v:7:y:2014:i:c:p:57-65
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoser.2013.11.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212041613000879
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecoser.2013.11.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Liu, Yong & Li, Jinchang & Zhang, Hong, 2012. "An ecosystem service valuation of land use change in Taiyuan City, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 127-132.
    2. Kreuter, Urs P. & Harris, Heather G. & Matlock, Marty D. & Lacey, Ronald E., 2001. "Change in ecosystem service values in the San Antonio area, Texas," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 333-346, December.
    3. Koniak, Gili & Noy-Meir, Imanuel, 2009. "A hierarchical, multi-scale, management-responsive model of Mediterranean vegetation dynamics," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(8), pages 1148-1158.
    4. Guan, DongJie & Li, HaiFeng & Inohae, Takuro & Su, Weici & Nagaie, Tadashi & Hokao, Kazunori, 2011. "Modeling urban land use change by the integration of cellular automaton and Markov model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(20), pages 3761-3772.
    5. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    6. Costanza, Robert & Stern, David & Fisher, Brendan & He, Lining & Ma, Chunbo, 2004. "Influential publications in ecological economics: a citation analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3-4), pages 261-292, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xinhai Lu & Bin Jiang & Mingqing Liu & Yuying Li & Danling Chen, 2022. "A Study on the Gains and Losses of the Ecosystem Service Value of the Land Consolidation Projects of Different Properties in Hubei Province: An Empirical Comparison Based on Plains, Mountains and Hill," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-24, July.
    2. Hui Li & Yilin Huang & Yilu Zhou & Shuntao Wang & Wanqi Guo & Yan Liu & Junzhi Wang & Qing Xu & Xiaokang Zhou & Kexin Yi & Qingchun Hou & Lixia Liao & Wei Lin, 2023. "Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Ecosystem Service Values and Topography-Driven Effects Based on Land Use Change: A Case Study of the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-19, June.
    3. Zhang, Yi & Zheng, Minrui & Qin, Bo, 2023. "Optimization of spatial layout based on ESV-FLUS model from the perspective of “Production-Living-Ecological”: A case study of Wuhan City," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 481(C).
    4. Jiang, Wei, 2017. "Ecosystem services research in China: A critical review," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 26(PA), pages 10-16.
    5. Yu Chen & Yilian Liu & Shengfu Yang & Chengwu Liu, 2023. "Impact of Land-Use Change on Ecosystem Services in the Wuling Mountains from a Transport Development Perspective," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-21, January.
    6. Wang, Han & Lu, Siying & Lu, Bo & Nie, Xin, 2021. "Overt and covert: The relationship between the transfer of land development rights and carbon emissions," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    7. Zhao, Xiaoqing & Xu, Yifei & Pu, Junwei & Tao, Junyi & Chen, Yanjun & Huang, Pei & Shi, Xinyu & Ran, Yuju & Gu, Zexian, 2024. "Achieving the supply-demand balance of ecosystem services through zoning regulation based on land use thresholds," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    8. Ru Chen & Chunbo Huang, 2021. "Landscape Evolution and It’s Impact of Ecosystem Service Value of the Wuhan City, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(24), pages 1-21, December.
    9. Ying Li & Xu Han & Bingbing Zhou & Ligang Lv & Yeting Fan, 2023. "Farmland Dynamics and Its Grain Production Efficiency and Ecological Security in China’s Major Grain-Producing Regions between 2000 and 2020," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-17, July.
    10. Shoyama, Kikuko & Kamiyama, Chiho & Morimoto, Junko & Ooba, Makoto & Okuro, Toshiya, 2017. "A review of modeling approaches for ecosystem services assessment in the Asian region," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 26(PB), pages 316-328.
    11. Ying Wang & Xiangmei Li & Jiangfeng Li & Zhengdong Huang & Renbin Xiao, 2018. "Impact of Rapid Urbanization on Vulnerability of Land System from Complex Networks View: A Methodological Approach," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-18, May.
    12. Zhang, Guanshi & Zheng, Duo & Xie, Long & Zhang, Xiu & Wu, Hongjuan & Li, Sen, 2021. "Mapping changes in the value of ecosystem services in the Yangtze River Middle Reaches Megalopolis, China," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eshetu Yirsaw & Wei Wu & Xiaoping Shi & Habtamu Temesgen & Belew Bekele, 2017. "Land Use/Land Cover Change Modeling and the Prediction of Subsequent Changes in Ecosystem Service Values in a Coastal Area of China, the Su-Xi-Chang Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-17, July.
    2. Xinmin Zhang & Hualin Xie & Jiaying Shi & Tiangui Lv & Caihua Zhou & Wangda Liu, 2020. "Assessing Changes in Ecosystem Service Values in Response to Land Cover Dynamics in Jiangxi Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-15, April.
    3. Wang, Yahui & Dai, Erfu & Yin, Le & Ma, Liang, 2018. "Land use/land cover change and the effects on ecosystem services in the Hengduan Mountain region, China," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 34(PA), pages 55-67.
    4. Yi, Hoonchong & Güneralp, Burak & Filippi, Anthony M. & Kreuter, Urs P. & Güneralp, İnci, 2017. "Impacts of Land Change on Ecosystem Services in the San Antonio River Basin, Texas, from 1984 to 2010," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 125-135.
    5. Yuqing Xiong & Hong Li & Meichen Fu & Xiuhua Ma & Lei Wang, 2022. "Evaluation of Ecosystem Service Change Patterns in a Mining-Based City: A Case Study of Wu’an City," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-18, June.
    6. Xiaoyan Zhang & Jian Ji, 2022. "Spatiotemporal Differentiation of Ecosystem Service Value and Its Drivers in the Jiangsu Coastal Zone, Eastern China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-19, November.
    7. Quanfeng Li & Lu Wang & Guoming Du & Bonoua Faye & Yunkai Li & Jicheng Li & Wei Liu & Shijin Qu, 2022. "Dynamic Variation of Ecosystem Services Value under Land Use/Cover Change in the Black Soil Region of Northeastern China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(12), pages 1-18, June.
    8. Crespin, Silvio J. & Simonetti, Javier A., 2016. "Loss of ecosystem services and the decapitalization of nature in El Salvador," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 5-13.
    9. Shuming Ma & Jie Huang & Yingying Chai, 2021. "Proposing a GEE-Based Spatiotemporally Adjusted Value Transfer Method to Assess Land-Use Changes and Their Impacts on Ecosystem Service Values in the Shenyang Metropolitan Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-20, November.
    10. Aijun Guo & Yongnian Zhang & Fanglei Zhong & Daiwei Jiang, 2020. "Spatiotemporal Patterns of Ecosystem Service Value Changes and Their Coordination with Economic Development: A Case Study of the Yellow River Basin, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(22), pages 1-17, November.
    11. Raju Rai & Yili Zhang & Basanta Paudel & Bipin Kumar Acharya & Laxmi Basnet, 2018. "Land Use and Land Cover Dynamics and Assessing the Ecosystem Service Values in the Trans-Boundary Gandaki River Basin, Central Himalayas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-22, August.
    12. Tianhong Li & Yao Ding, 2017. "Spatial disparity dynamics of ecosystem service values and GDP in Shaanxi Province, China in the last 30 years," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(3), pages 1-20, March.
    13. Maggie G. Munthali & Mengistie Kindu & Abiodun M. Adeola & Nerhene Davis & Joel O. Botai & Negasi Solomon, 2023. "Variations of ecosystem service values as a response to land use and land cover dynamics in central malawi," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(9), pages 9821-9837, September.
    14. Yingxue Rao & Jingyi Dai & Deyi Dai & Qingsong He & Huiying Wang, 2021. "Effect of Compactness of Urban Growth on Regional Landscape Ecological Security," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-17, August.
    15. Yushuo Zhang & Lin Zhao & Jiyu Liu & Yuli Liu & Cansong Li, 2015. "The Impact of Land Cover Change on Ecosystem Service Values in Urban Agglomerations along the Coast of the Bohai Rim, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(8), pages 1-23, August.
    16. Seiler, Volker, 2024. "The relationship between Chinese and FOB prices of rare earth elements – Evidence in the time and frequency domain," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 160-179.
    17. Kandil, Magda & Woods, Jeffrey G., 1995. "A cross-industry examination of the Lucas misperceptions model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 55-76.
    18. Herrera, Santiago, 2000. "Determinantes y composición del endeudamiento público en Colombia," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 2110, Inter-American Development Bank.
    19. Antoine d'Autume, 1992. "Coïntégration et modèles dynamiques," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 106(5), pages 71-83.
    20. John Barkoulas & Christopher Baum & Mustafa Caglayan, 1999. "Fractional monetary dynamics," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(11), pages 1393-1400.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecoser:v:7:y:2014:i:c:p:57-65. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecosystem-services .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.