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Future Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Changes on Ecosystem Services in the Lower Meghna River Estuary, Bangladesh

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  • Muhammad Ziaul Hoque

    (Key Laboratory of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China
    International School, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    Xiamen Key Lab of Urban Metabolism, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China
    Department of Agricultural Extension and Rural Development, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University, Gazipur 1706, Bangladesh)

  • Shenghui Cui

    (Key Laboratory of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China
    Xiamen Key Lab of Urban Metabolism, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China)

  • Imranul Islam

    (Key Laboratory of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China
    International School, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    Xiamen Key Lab of Urban Metabolism, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China)

  • Lilai Xu

    (Key Laboratory of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China
    Xiamen Key Lab of Urban Metabolism, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China)

  • Jianxiong Tang

    (Key Laboratory of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China
    International School, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    Xiamen Key Lab of Urban Metabolism, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China)

Abstract

Assessing the effects of different land use scenarios on subsequent changes in ecosystem service has great implications for sustainable land management. Here, we designed four land use/land cover (LULC) scenarios, such as business-as-usual development (BAUD), economic development priority (EDP), ecological protection priority (EPP), and afforestation development priority (ADP), through a Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) model, and their effects on ecosystem service values (ESVs) were predicted, using historical LULC maps and ESV coefficients of the Lower Meghna River Estuary, Bangladesh. Findings revealed that agricultural and mangrove forest lands experienced the greatest decreases, while rural and urban settlement land had the greatest increases, leading to a total ESV decrease of US$105.34 million during 1988-2018. The scenario analysis indicated that ESV in 2038 would also decrease by US$41.37 million and US$16.38 million under the BAUD and EDP scenarios, respectively, while ESV will increase by US$60.61 million and US$130.95 million under the EPP and ADP scenarios, respectively. However, all the future land use scenarios will lead to 1.65%, 10.21%, 7.58%, and 6.75% gaps in total food requirements, respectively. Hence, from the perspective of maximizing ESVs and minimizing the trade-offs in food gaps, the ADP scenario could be the optimal land management policy for the studied landscape.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Ziaul Hoque & Shenghui Cui & Imranul Islam & Lilai Xu & Jianxiong Tang, 2020. "Future Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Changes on Ecosystem Services in the Lower Meghna River Estuary, Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-18, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:5:p:2112-:d:330307
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Maggie G. Munthali & Mengistie Kindu & Abiodun M. Adeola & Nerhene Davis & Joel O. Botai & Negasi Solomon, 2023. "Variations of ecosystem service values as a response to land use and land cover dynamics in central malawi," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(9), pages 9821-9837, September.
    2. Imranul Islam & Shenghui Cui & Muhammad Ziaul Hoque & Hasan Muhammad Abdullah & Kaniz Fatima Tonny & Minhaz Ahmed & Jannatul Ferdush & Lilai Xu & Shengping Ding, 2022. "Dynamics of Tree outside Forest Land Cover Development and Ecosystem Carbon Storage Change in Eastern Coastal Zone, Bangladesh," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-19, January.

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