IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/anresc/v70y2023i1d10.1007_s00168-022-01169-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Land-cover/land-use change dynamics modeling based on land change modeler

Author

Listed:
  • Meryem Qacami

    (Ecole Nationale Forestière d’Ingénieur
    Université Laval)

  • Abdellatif Khattabi

    (Ecole Nationale Forestière d’Ingénieur)

  • Said Lahssini

    (Ecole Nationale Forestière d’Ingénieur)

  • Nabil Rifai

    (Département des Eaux et Forêts, Direction du Développement Forestier)

  • Modeste Meliho

    (Département des Eaux et Forêts, Direction du Développement Forestier
    Institut Agronomique et Vétérinaire Hassan II)

Abstract

Forest cover in the Rherhaya watershed of the Moroccan High Atlas region, characterized by its critical natural conditions, faces strong human pressure, leading to the fragmentation of the landscape. To improve natural capital management, to support stakeholders in their decision-making process and to sustain ecosystem services provided by the watershed, this work aims at developing a long-term vision of the local landscape. Land-use/land-cover change dynamics have been analyzed at 1984, 2000 and 2017 timestamps, and prospective modeling based on the Land Change Modeler (LCM) model has been used to develop a future vision of forest landscapes. LCM modeling approaches rely on two types of input maps: (1) maps of land cover at times before the calibration period and (2) maps of explanatory variables (that precludes land-use or land-cover change over time such as slope, altitude and accessibility: distance to roads or human settlement). The model is validated through the juxtaposition of the 2017 observed map and the predicted map for the same year using the trained model. The result shows an overall accuracy of 64.58 per cent. Based on the hypothesis of human pressures intensification in the future, the forecasted land-cover map by 2040 has been derived as a result of the explanatory variables. This prospective modeling, therefore, predicts by 2040 an expansion of buildings that will be made at the expense of bare soil surfaces. Indeed, this expansion will be linked to population growth stemming mainly due to a strong migration of populations from neighboring regions in search of better living conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Meryem Qacami & Abdellatif Khattabi & Said Lahssini & Nabil Rifai & Modeste Meliho, 2023. "Land-cover/land-use change dynamics modeling based on land change modeler," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 70(1), pages 237-258, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:70:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s00168-022-01169-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s00168-022-01169-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00168-022-01169-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00168-022-01169-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wolfgang Cramer & Joël Guiot & Marianela Fader & Joaquim Garrabou & Jean-Pierre Gattuso & Ana Iglesias & Manfred A. Lange & Piero Lionello & Maria Carmen Llasat & Shlomit Paz & Josep Peñuelas & Maria , 2018. "Climate change and interconnected risks to sustainable development in the Mediterranean," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(11), pages 972-980, November.
    2. Norman Myers & Russell A. Mittermeier & Cristina G. Mittermeier & Gustavo A. B. da Fonseca & Jennifer Kent, 2000. "Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities," Nature, Nature, vol. 403(6772), pages 853-858, February.
    3. Huiran Han & Chengfeng Yang & Jinping Song, 2015. "Scenario Simulation and the Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Beijing, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-20, April.
    4. Biswajit Nath & Zheng Niu & Ramesh P. Singh, 2018. "Land Use and Land Cover Changes, and Environment and Risk Evaluation of Dujiangyan City (SW China) Using Remote Sensing and GIS Techniques," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-32, December.
    5. Guan, DongJie & Li, HaiFeng & Inohae, Takuro & Su, Weici & Nagaie, Tadashi & Hokao, Kazunori, 2011. "Modeling urban land use change by the integration of cellular automaton and Markov model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(20), pages 3761-3772.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michel Opelele Omeno & Ying Yu & Wenyi Fan & Tolerant Lubalega & Chen Chen & Claude Kachaka Sudi Kaiko, 2021. "Analysis of the Impact of Land-Use/Land-Cover Change on Land-Surface Temperature in the Villages within the Luki Biosphere Reserve," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-23, October.
    2. Sarah Hasan & Wenzhong Shi & Xiaolin Zhu & Sawaid Abbas & Hafiz Usman Ahmed Khan, 2020. "Future Simulation of Land Use Changes in Rapidly Urbanizing South China Based on Land Change Modeler and Remote Sensing Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-24, May.
    3. Harik, G. & Alameddine, I. & Zurayk, R. & El-Fadel, M., 2023. "Uncertainty in forecasting land cover land use at a watershed scale: Towards enhanced sustainable land management," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 486(C).
    4. Xiaoli Hu & Xin Li & Ling Lu, 2018. "Modeling the Land Use Change in an Arid Oasis Constrained by Water Resources and Environmental Policy Change Using Cellular Automata Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-14, August.
    5. Eshetu Yirsaw & Wei Wu & Xiaoping Shi & Habtamu Temesgen & Belew Bekele, 2017. "Land Use/Land Cover Change Modeling and the Prediction of Subsequent Changes in Ecosystem Service Values in a Coastal Area of China, the Su-Xi-Chang Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-17, July.
    6. Konstantinos Kougioumoutzis & Maria Tsakiri & Ioannis P. Kokkoris & Panayiotis Trigas & Gregoris Iatrou & Fotini N. Lamari & Dimitris Tzanoudakis & Eleni Koumoutsou & Panayotis Dimopoulos & Arne Strid, 2024. "Assessing the Vulnerability of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants to Climate and Land-Use Changes in a Mediterranean Biodiversity Hotspot," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-29, January.
    7. Siddique Ullah & Adnan Ahmad Tahir & Tahir Ali Akbar & Quazi K. Hassan & Ashraf Dewan & Asim Jahangir Khan & Mudassir Khan, 2019. "Remote Sensing-Based Quantification of the Relationships between Land Use Land Cover Changes and Surface Temperature over the Lower Himalayan Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-16, October.
    8. Chunliu Gao & Deqiang Cheng & Javed Iqbal & Shunyu Yao, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Change Analysis and Prediction of the Great Yellow River Region (GYRR) Land Cover and the Relationship Analysis with Mountain Hazards," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-24, January.
    9. Xiuyan Zhao & Changhong Miao, 2022. "Spatial-Temporal Changes and Simulation of Land Use in Metropolitan Areas: A Case of the Zhengzhou Metropolitan Area, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-27, October.
    10. Muhammad Tauhidur Rahman & Adel S. Aldosary & Md. Golam Mortoja, 2017. "Modeling Future Land Cover Changes and Their Effects on the Land Surface Temperatures in the Saudi Arabian Eastern Coastal City of Dammam," Land, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-16, May.
    11. Youjung Kim & Galen Newman & Burak Güneralp, 2020. "A Review of Driving Factors, Scenarios, and Topics in Urban Land Change Models," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-22, July.
    12. Quintas-Soriano, Cristina & Buerkert, Andreas & Plieninger, Tobias, 2022. "Effects of land abandonment on nature contributions to people and good quality of life components in the Mediterranean region: A review," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    13. Laxmi D. Bhatta & Sunita Chaudhary & Anju Pandit & Himlal Baral & Partha J. Das & Nigel E. Stork, 2016. "Ecosystem Service Changes and Livelihood Impacts in the Maguri-Motapung Wetlands of Assam, India," Land, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-14, June.
    14. D. Santillán & L. Garrote & A. Iglesias & V. Sotes, 2020. "Climate change risks and adaptation: new indicators for Mediterranean viticulture," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 881-899, May.
    15. McLennan, D. & Sharma, R., 2012. "The Delivering Ecological Services Index (DESI)," Working papers 119, Rimisp Latin American Center for Rural Development.
    16. Yang, Yuanyuan & Bao, Wenkai & Liu, Yansui, 2020. "Scenario simulation of land system change in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    17. Caviedes, Julián & Ibarra, José Tomás & Calvet-Mir, Laura & Álvarez-Fernández, Santiago & Junqueira, André Braga, 2024. "Indigenous and local knowledge on social-ecological changes is positively associated with livelihood resilience in a Globally Important Agricultural Heritage System," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    18. Maeda, Eduardo Eiji & Clark, Barnaby J.F. & Pellikka, Petri & Siljander, Mika, 2010. "Modelling agricultural expansion in Kenya's Eastern Arc Mountains biodiversity hotspot," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(9), pages 609-620, November.
    19. David Hidalgo García, 2023. "Evaluation and Analysis of the Effectiveness of the Main Mitigation Measures against Surface Urban Heat Islands in Different Local Climate Zones through Remote Sensing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-23, July.
    20. Morán-Ordóñez, Alejandra & Ameztegui, Aitor & De Cáceres, Miquel & de-Miguel, Sergio & Lefèvre, François & Brotons, Lluís & Coll, Lluís, 2020. "Future trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services in Mediterranean forests under global change scenarios," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:70:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s00168-022-01169-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.