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Climate Vulnerability and Human Migration in Global Perspective

Author

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  • Martina Grecequet

    (Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA)

  • Jack DeWaard

    (Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA
    Department of Sociology and Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA)

  • Jessica J. Hellmann

    (Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA
    Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, College of Biological Sciences, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA)

  • Guy J. Abel

    (Asian Demographic Research Institute, School of Sociology and Political Science, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444, China
    Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/ÖAW, WU), Vienna Institute of Demography (Austrian Academy of Sciences), Vienna 1020, Austria)

Abstract

The relationship between climate change and human migration is not homogenous and depends critically on the differential vulnerability of population and places. If places and populations are not vulnerable, or susceptible, to climate change, then the climate–migration relationship may not materialize. The key to understanding and, from a policy perspective, planning for whether and how climate change will impact future migration patterns is therefore knowledge of the link between climate vulnerability and migration. However, beyond specific case studies, little is known about this association in global perspective. We therefore provide a descriptive, country-level portrait of this relationship. We show that the negative association between climate vulnerability and international migration holds only for countries least vulnerable to climate change, which suggests the potential for trapped populations in more vulnerable countries. However, when analyzed separately by life supporting sector (food, water, health, ecosystem services, human habitat, and infrastructure) and vulnerability dimension (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity), we detect evidence of a relationship among more, but not the most, vulnerable countries. The bilateral (i.e., country-to-country) migration show that, on average, people move from countries of higher vulnerability to lower vulnerability, reducing global risk by 15%. This finding is consistent with the idea that migration is a climate adaptation strategy. Still, ~6% of bilateral migration is maladaptive with respect to climate change, with some movement toward countries with greater climate change vulnerability.

Suggested Citation

  • Martina Grecequet & Jack DeWaard & Jessica J. Hellmann & Guy J. Abel, 2017. "Climate Vulnerability and Human Migration in Global Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-10, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:5:p:720-:d:97250
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. The Government Office for Science London, 2016. "Migration and Global Environmental Change: Future Challenges and Opportunities," Working Papers id:11192, eSocialSciences.
    2. Era Dabla-Norris & Kalpana Kochhar & Nujin Suphaphiphat & Franto Ricka & Evridiki Tsounta, 2015. "Causes and Consequences of Income Inequality; A Global Perspective," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 15/13, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Guy Abel, 2013. "Estimating global migration flow tables using place of birth data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(18), pages 505-546.
    4. Richard Black & Stephen R. G. Bennett & Sandy M. Thomas & John R. Beddington, 2011. "Migration as adaptation," Nature, Nature, vol. 478(7370), pages 447-449, October.
    5. Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Ms. Kalpana Kochhar & Mrs. Nujin Suphaphiphat & Mr. Franto Ricka & Ms. Evridiki Tsounta, 2015. "Causes and Consequences of Income Inequality: A Global Perspective," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2015/013, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Patricia Nayna Schwerdtle & Julia Stockemer & Kathryn J. Bowen & Rainer Sauerborn & Celia McMichael & Ina Danquah, 2020. "A Meta-Synthesis of Policy Recommendations Regarding Human Mobility in the Context of Climate Change," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(24), pages 1-30, December.
    2. Emily C. Nabong & Aaron Opdyke & Jeffrey P. Walters, 2022. "Identifying leverage points in climate change migration systems through expert mental models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 175(3), pages 1-23, December.
    3. Julian Roeckert & Kati Kraehnert, 2022. "Extreme Weather Events and Internal Migration: Evidence from Mongolia," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 95-128, March.
    4. Wen, Jun & Zhang, Sen & Chang, Chun-Ping & Anugrah, Donni Fajar & Affandi, Yoga, 2023. "Does climate vulnerability promote green investment under energy supply restriction?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    5. Abdulazeez Hudu Wudil & Muhammad Usman & Joanna Rosak-Szyrocka & Ladislav Pilař & Mortala Boye, 2022. "Reversing Years for Global Food Security: A Review of the Food Security Situation in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(22), pages 1-22, November.
    6. Lijuan Zhang & Jinxia Wang & Guangsheng Zhang & Qiuqiong Huang, 2020. "Whether climatic factors influence the frequency of punctual on-demand deliveries of groundwater for irrigation? Empirical study in the North China Plain," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 159(2), pages 269-287, March.
    7. Anthony McCosker & Anne Matan & Dora Marinova, 2018. "Policies, Politics, and Paradigms: Healthy Planning in Australian Local Government," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-25, March.
    8. Jack DeWaard & Janna Johnson & Stephan Whitaker, 2019. "Internal migration in the United States: A comprehensive comparative assessment of the Consumer Credit Panel," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(33), pages 953-1006.
    9. Sara Balestri & Raul Caruso, 2021. "Vulnerability to climate change and communal conflicts: uncovering pathways," DISEIS - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia internazionale, delle istituzioni e dello sviluppo dis2103, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimento di Economia internazionale, delle istituzioni e dello sviluppo (DISEIS).
    10. de Bruin, Sophie & Hoch, Jannis & de Bruijn, Jens & Hermans, Kathleen & Maharjan, Amina & Kummu, Matti & van Vliet, Jasper, 2024. "Scenario projections of South Asian migration patterns amidst environmental and socioeconomic change," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 88, pages 1-12.

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