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Vulnerability to climate change and communal conflicts: uncovering pathways

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Listed:
  • Sara Balestri
  • Raul Caruso

Abstract

This research work provides new evidence about the effect of vulnerability to natural hazards on the likelihood of communal violence, by disentangling regional-specific pathways. We focus on Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Southern/South-Eastern Asia (S-SEA) for the period 1995-2016, being these regions particularly exposed to climate effects and dominantly characterized by rain-fed and climate-sensitive agriculture. Relying on the ND-GAIN Vulnerability Index as multidimensional measure of propensity of human societies to be negatively impacted by climate change, we found robust evidence that greater vulnerability is conducive to a higher risk of communal violence. This result is consistent across the regions, and it remarks the fragility of SSA where levels of vulnerability are higher than those observed in S-SEA, on average. Overall, results suggest that policy efforts aimed at reducing vulnerability to natural hazards are powerful tools not only to make societies more resilient, but also more peaceful.

Suggested Citation

  • Sara Balestri & Raul Caruso, 2021. "Vulnerability to climate change and communal conflicts: uncovering pathways," DISEIS - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia internazionale, delle istituzioni e dello sviluppo dis2103, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimento di Economia internazionale, delle istituzioni e dello sviluppo (DISEIS).
    • Handle: RePEc:dis:wpaper:dis2103
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    File URL: http://dipartimenti.unicatt.it/diseis-wp_2103.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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