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Modeling the Relative Contributions of Land Use Change and Harvest to Forest Landscape Change in the Taihe County, China

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  • Zhuo Wu

    (Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Quansheng Ge

    (Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Erfu Dai

    (Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

Abstract

Forests are under pressure from land use change due to anthropogenic activities. Land use change and harvest are the main disturbances of forest landscape changes. Few studies have focused on the relative contributions of different disturbances. In this study, we used the CA-Markov model, a land-use change model, coupled with a forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, to simulate dynamic change in Taihe County, China, from 2010 to 2050. Scenarios analysis was conducted to quantify the relative contributions of land use change and harvest. Our results show that forestland and arable land will remain the primary land-use types in 2050, whereas the built-up land will sprawl drastically. Land use change and harvest may result in the significant loss of forest area and changes in landscape structure. The simulated forest area will increase by 16.2% under the no disturbance scenario. However, under harvest, forest conversion, and integrated scenario, the area will be reduced by 5.2%, 16.5%, and 34.9%, respectively. The effect of harvest is gradually enhanced. The land use change will account for 60% and harvest will account for 40% of forest landscape change in 2050, respectively. Our results may benefit from the integration of regional forest management and land-use policy-making, and help to achieve a trade-off between economy and ecological environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhuo Wu & Quansheng Ge & Erfu Dai, 2017. "Modeling the Relative Contributions of Land Use Change and Harvest to Forest Landscape Change in the Taihe County, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-17, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:5:p:708-:d:97115
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Scheller, Robert M. & Domingo, James B. & Sturtevant, Brian R. & Williams, Jeremy S. & Rudy, Arnold & Gustafson, Eric J. & Mladenoff, David J., 2007. "Design, development, and application of LANDIS-II, a spatial landscape simulation model with flexible temporal and spatial resolution," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 201(3), pages 409-419.
    2. Helen Briassoulis, 2000. "Analysis of Land Use Change: Theoretical and Modeling Approaches," Wholbk, Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University, number 17, Fall.
    3. Ninan, K.N. & Inoue, Makoto, 2013. "Valuing forest ecosystem services: What we know and what we don't," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 137-149.
    4. de Bruijn, Arjan & Gustafson, Eric J. & Sturtevant, Brian R. & Foster, Jane R. & Miranda, Brian R. & Lichti, Nathanael I. & Jacobs, Douglass F., 2014. "Toward more robust projections of forest landscape dynamics under novel environmental conditions: Embedding PnET within LANDIS-II," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 287(C), pages 44-57.
    5. Yang, Xin & Zheng, Xin-Qi & Chen, Rui, 2014. "A land use change model: Integrating landscape pattern indexes and Markov-CA," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 283(C), pages 1-7.
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    Cited by:

    1. Piotr Krajewski & Iga Solecka & Karol Mrozik, 2018. "Forest Landscape Change and Preliminary Study on Its Driving Forces in Ślęża Landscape Park (Southwestern Poland) in 1883–2013," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-21, November.
    2. Yang Ren & Jari Kuuluvainen & Anne Toppinen & Shunbo Yao & Sami Berghäll & Heimo Karppinen & Caixia Xue & Liu Yang, 2018. "The Effect of China’s New Circular Collective Forest Tenure Reform on Household Non-Timber Forest Product Production in Natural Forest Protection Project Regions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-17, April.
    3. T. V. Ramachandra & Bharath Setturu, 2019. "Sustainable Management of Bannerghatta National Park, India, with the Insights in Land Cover Dynamics," FIIB Business Review, , vol. 8(2), pages 118-131, June.
    4. Zhuo Wu & Erfu Dai & Wenchuan Guan, 2020. "Modeling Subtropical Forest Changes under Climate Change and Close-to-Nature Silviculture: Is There a Tipping Point in an Uncertain Future in Southern China?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-14, August.

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