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Incremental Change, Transition or Transformation? Optimising Change Pathways for Climate Adaptation in Spatial Planning

Author

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  • Rob Roggema

    (Swinburne University, Institute for Social Research, P.O. Box 218, Hawthorn, VIC 3122, Australia
    Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Architecture, P.O. Box 5043, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands
    Wageningen University and Research Centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands)

  • Tim Vermeend

    (Architects, Guyotplein 5, 9712 NX Groningen, The Netherlands)

  • Andy Van den Dobbelsteen

    (Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Architecture, P.O. Box 5043, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands)

Abstract

In order to incorporate climate adaptation in spatial planning change is required, because climate change impacts the way we live. This implies that spatial planning, as the arranger of the spatial organisation and layout needs to be able to support this change. Current spatial planning is not yet well equipped to play this role. In this research article three possible routes to navigate change are explored. Incremental change is seen as a slow process, which modifies the landscape only slightly. Transition is seen as a fluent change towards a new future, which is an improved version of the existing; and transformation is seen as a change towards a future that is fundamentally different from the existing. The three pathways are compared and it is concluded that transformational change offers the best perspective in dealing with uncertain, unexpected and unprecedented futures, such as developing in times of climate change. Therefore, transformation is theoretically further elaborated and it is found that a transformational change to a new system already starts at a time when the existing system still fully operates. The change to a new system (called B in this article) therefore already started and the predecessors of B already existed. These ‘B-minuses’ of the new system can be found through network analysis, where the most intense and connective nodes are the most likely ‘B-minuses’. Alternatively B-minuses can be created through locating the areas where key-nodes and existing infrastructure can be related to existing urban functions. As illustrated in the case-study design, these principles are able to guide the design of a climate proof landscape.

Suggested Citation

  • Rob Roggema & Tim Vermeend & Andy Van den Dobbelsteen, 2012. "Incremental Change, Transition or Transformation? Optimising Change Pathways for Climate Adaptation in Spatial Planning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 4(10), pages 1-25, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:4:y:2012:i:10:p:2525-2549:d:20474
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Eric K Chu, 2018. "Urban climate adaptation and the reshaping of state–society relations: The politics of community knowledge and mobilisation in Indore, India," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 55(8), pages 1766-1782, June.
    2. Rob Roggema, 2020. "Planning for the Energy Transition and How to Overcome the Misfits of the Current Paradigm," World, MDPI, vol. 1(3), pages 1-19, November.
    3. Vizinho, André & Avelar, David & Fonseca, Ana Lúcia & Carvalho, Silvia & Sucena-Paiva, Leonor & Pinho, Pedro & Nunes, Alice & Branquinho, Cristina & Vasconcelos, Ana Cátia & Santos, Filipe Duarte & Ro, 2021. "Framing the application of Adaptation Pathways for agroforestry in Mediterranean drylands," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    4. Andriamihaja, O. Ravaka & Metz, Florence & Zaehringer, Julie G. & Fischer, Manuel & Messerli, Peter, 2021. "Identifying agents of change for sustainable land governance," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    5. Ifigenia Psarra & Özlem Altınkaya Genel & Alex van Spyk, 2021. "A Research by Design Strategy for Climate Adaptation Solutions: Implementation in the Low-Density, High Flood Risk Context of the Lake District, UK," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-23, October.
    6. Bjerkan, Kristin Ystmark & Seter, Hanne, 2021. "Policy and politics in energy transitions. A case study on shore power in Oslo," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    7. Canitez, Fatih, 2019. "Pathways to sustainable urban mobility in developing megacities: A socio-technical transition perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 319-329.
    8. Moradi, Afsaneh & Vagnoni, Emidia, 2018. "A multi-level perspective analysis of urban mobility system dynamics: What are the future transition pathways?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 231-243.
    9. Emmanuel Tolulope Busayo & Ahmed Mukalazi Kalumba, 2020. "Coastal Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction: A Review of Policy, Programme and Practice for Sustainable Planning Outcomes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-16, August.
    10. Rob Roggema, 2014. "Towards Enhanced Resilience in City Design: A Proposition," Land, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-22, June.
    11. Annelie Holzkämper, 2017. "Adapting Agricultural Production Systems to Climate Change—What’s the Use of Models?," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 7(10), pages 1-15, October.
    12. Cristina Chaminade & Filippo Randelli, 2020. "The Role of Territorially Embedded Innovation Ecosystems Accelerating Sustainability Transformations: A Case Study of the Transformation to Organic Wine Production in Tuscany (Italy)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-13, June.
    13. Child, Michael & Breyer, Christian, 2017. "Transition and transformation: A review of the concept of change in the progress towards future sustainable energy systems," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 11-26.
    14. Nelson, Sarah & Allwood, Julian M., 2021. "The technological and social timelines of climate mitigation: Lessons from 12 past transitions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    15. Marc Wolfram & Niki Frantzeskaki, 2016. "Cities and Systemic Change for Sustainability: Prevailing Epistemologies and an Emerging Research Agenda," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-18, February.
    16. Jenkins, Kirsten & Sovacool, Benjamin K. & McCauley, Darren, 2018. "Humanizing sociotechnical transitions through energy justice: An ethical framework for global transformative change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 66-74.

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