IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v17y2025i4p1555-d1590614.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A DPSIR-Bayesian Network Approach for Tourism Ecological Security Early Warning: A Case Study of Sichuan Province, China

Author

Listed:
  • Xin Huang

    (Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610213, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Ting Li

    (Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610213, China)

  • Li Li

    (School of Ecological Engineering, Guizhou University of Engineering Science, Bijie 551700, China)

  • Qiurong Liu

    (Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610213, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Qing Liu

    (Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610213, China)

Abstract

As a subset of the human–environment system, the tourism ecosystem focuses on the complex dynamics and interactions between tourism activities and the natural environment. Among these, tourism ecological security (TES) is one of the core issues in the study of tourism ecosystems, aiming to balance economic development and ecological environment protection. Currently, the risk early warning of TES has not received widespread attention, and there is an urgent need for a tourism ecological safety risk early warning system to achieve TES monitoring, risk assessment, and decision support. Therefore, this study established a comprehensive TES evaluation system, systematically analyzed the evolution of TES in Sichuan Province from 2010 to 2022, and used the geographical detector to reveal the influencing factors and driving mechanisms of TES. Based on these achievements, an early risk warning system for TES was established based on the Bayesian network model, simulating the response of TES under single-variable and multi-variable scenarios. The research results reveal that TES changes with environmental changes, resource utilization and consumption, and the development of the tourism industry, and there are differences in the driving factors of TES under different conditions. There is a synergistic effect between the influencing factors of TES, and there is a threshold effect in the regulation of tourism ecological safety, revealing the efficiency and limitations of different regulatory strategies. The early risk warning model for TES based on the Bayesian network has high prediction accuracy and can provide effective support for the management and regulatory policies of TES.

Suggested Citation

  • Xin Huang & Ting Li & Li Li & Qiurong Liu & Qing Liu, 2025. "A DPSIR-Bayesian Network Approach for Tourism Ecological Security Early Warning: A Case Study of Sichuan Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-21, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:4:p:1555-:d:1590614
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/4/1555/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/4/1555/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xia Xie & Hui Sun & Jun Gao & Feifei Chen & Chunshan Zhou, 2021. "Spatiotemporal Differentiation of Coupling and Coordination Relationship of Tourism–Urbanization–Ecological Environment System in China’s Major Tourist Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-17, May.
    2. Dario Bertocchi & Nicola Camatti & Silvio Giove & Jan van der Borg, 2020. "Venice and Overtourism: Simulating Sustainable Development Scenarios through a Tourism Carrying Capacity Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-15, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yanzi Wang & Chunming Wu & Yongfeng Gong & Zhen Zhu, 2021. "Can Adaptive Governance Promote Coupling Social-Ecological Systems? Evidence from the Vulnerable Ecological Region of Northwestern China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-19, October.
    2. Bart Neuts & Senne Kimps & Jan van der Borg, 2021. "Resident Support for Tourism Development: Application of a Simplified Resident Empowerment through Tourism Scale on Developing Destinations in Flanders," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-19, June.
    3. Zamru Ajuhari & Azlizam Aziz & Sam Shor Nahar Yaakob & Shamsul Abu Bakar & Manohar Mariapan, 2023. "Systematic Literature Review on Methods of Assessing Carrying Capacity in Recreation and Tourism Destinations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, February.
    4. da Mosto, Jane & Bertolini, Camilla & Markandya, Anil & Nunes, Paulo A.L.D. & Spencer, Tom & Palaima, Arnas & Onofri, Laura, 2020. "Rethinking Venice from an Ecosystem Services Perspective," FACTS: Firms And Cities Towards Sustainability 308019, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) > FACTS: Firms And Cities Towards Sustainability.
    5. José Fernandes & Pedro Chamusca & Rubén Lois & Helena Madureira & Juliano Mattos & Jorge Pinto, 2024. "Tourism-Led Change of the City Centre," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, January.
    6. Xingyu Yang & Fengtai Zhang & Yuedong Xiao & Youzhi An & Caixia Jiang & Hongmei Tan & Guofang Gong, 2023. "Coupling and interaction between tourism eco-efficiency and new urbanization in the Yangtze River Economic Belt: based on the perspective of uncoupling coordination," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(11), pages 13171-13197, November.
    7. Betsabé Pérez Garrido & Szabolcs Szilárd Sebrek & Viktoriia Semenova & Damla Bal & Gábor Michalkó, 2022. "Addressing the Phenomenon of Overtourism in Budapest from Multiple Angles Using Unconventional Methodologies and Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-19, February.
    8. Rova, Silvia & Stocco, Alice & Pranovi, Fabio, 2023. "Sustainability threshold for multiple ecosystem services in the Venice lagoon, Italy," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    9. Silvio Cristiano & Francesco Gonella, 2020. "‘Kill Venice’: a systems thinking conceptualisation of urban life, economy, and resilience in tourist cities," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 7(1), pages 1-13, December.
    10. Taolin Liu & Chao Ren & Shengguo Zhang & Anchao Yin & Weiting Yue, 2022. "Coupling Coordination Analysis of Urban Development and Ecological Environment in Urban Area of Guilin Based on Multi-Source Data," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-19, October.
    11. Stefano Della Torre & Mehrnaz Rajabi, 2022. "The Restoration of St. James’s Church in Como and the Cathedral Museum as Agents for Sustainable Urban Planning Strategies," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-15, March.
    12. Manuel de la Calle-Vaquero & María García-Hernández & Sofía Mendoza de Miguel, 2020. "Urban Planning Regulations for Tourism in the Context of Overtourism. Applications in Historic Centres," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-22, December.
    13. Sophia Arbara & Roberto D’Autilia, 2021. "A Population Game Model for the Expansion of Airbnb in the City of Venice," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-15, March.
    14. Qian Cheng & Zhongheng Luo & Ling Xiang, 2021. "Spatiotemporal Differentiation of Coupling and Coordination Relationship of the Tea Industry–Tourism–Ecological Environment System in Fujian Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-19, September.
    15. Xia Xie & Lei Zhang & Hui Sun & Feifei Chen & Chunshan Zhou, 2021. "Spatiotemporal Difference Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Tourism Urbanization in China’s Major Tourist Cities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(19), pages 1-21, October.
    16. Tatjana Tambovceva & Dzintra Atstaja & Maria Tereshina & Inga Uvarova & Agita Livina, 2020. "Sustainability Challenges and Drivers of Cross-Border Greenway Tourism in Rural Areas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-26, July.
    17. Yuwei He & Hui Zhang, 2021. "Comprehensive Evaluation of the Provincial Sustainable Tourismization Level in China and Its Temporal and Spatial Differences," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-31, September.
    18. Monika Widz & Teresa Brzezińska-Wójcik, 2020. "Assessment of the Overtourism Phenomenon Risk in Tunisia in Relation to the Tourism Area Life Cycle Concept," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-13, March.
    19. Niezgoda Agnieszka & Żemła Michał, 2024. "Deconcentration strategies as tools for preventing gentrification as perceived by residents of tourism destinations," International Journal of Contemporary Management, Sciendo, vol. 60(1), pages 201-210.
    20. Mandeep Mahendru & Vibha Arora & Ravi Chatterjee & Gagan Deep Sharma & Irum Shahzadi, 2024. "From Over-Tourism to Under-Tourism via COVID-19: Lessons for Sustainable Tourism Management," Evaluation Review, , vol. 48(1), pages 177-210, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:4:p:1555-:d:1590614. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.