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Venice and Overtourism: Simulating Sustainable Development Scenarios through a Tourism Carrying Capacity Model

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  • Dario Bertocchi

    (Department of Economics, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, San Giobbe 873, 30121 Venezia, Italy)

  • Nicola Camatti

    (Department of Economics, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, San Giobbe 873, 30121 Venezia, Italy)

  • Silvio Giove

    (Department of Economics, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, San Giobbe 873, 30121 Venezia, Italy)

  • Jan van der Borg

    (Department of Economics, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, San Giobbe 873, 30121 Venezia, Italy
    Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Oude Markt 13, 3000 Leuven, Belgium)

Abstract

Overtourism problems, anti-tourist movements and negative externalities of tourism are popular research approaches and are key concepts to better understand the sustainable development of tourism destinations. In many of the overtourism narratives, Venice is considered to be one of the most relevant cases of overtourism and therefore has become a laboratory for studying the different conflicts that emerge when tourism numbers continue to grow and the quality of the tourism flow continues to decline. This article is therefore focusing on Venice and on one of the possible solutions to mitigate the negative impacts of tourism represented by the concept of a tourist carrying capacity (TCC) in an urban destination. The aim of this paper is to discuss alternative methodologies regarding the calculation of the TCC, and to apply a fuzzy instead of a ‘crisp’ linear programming model to determine the scenarios of a sustainable number of tourists in the cultural destination of Venice, looking for the optimal compromise between, on the one hand, the wish of maximizing the monetary gain by the local tourism sectors and, on the other, the desire to control the undesirable effects that tourism exerts on a destination by the local population. To solve the problems related to tourism statistics and data availability, some uncertainty in the parameters has been included using fuzzy numbers. The fuzziness in the model was introduced on the basis of questionnaires distributed among both tourists and residents. By applying the fuzzy linear programming model to the emblematic case of Venice, it was shown that this approach can indeed help destinations to understand the challenges of sustainable tourism development better, to evaluate the impact of alternative policies of overtourism on the sustainability of tourism, and hence, to help design a strategy to manage tourist flows more adequately

Suggested Citation

  • Dario Bertocchi & Nicola Camatti & Silvio Giove & Jan van der Borg, 2020. "Venice and Overtourism: Simulating Sustainable Development Scenarios through a Tourism Carrying Capacity Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-15, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:2:p:512-:d:306927
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Betsabé Pérez Garrido & Szabolcs Szilárd Sebrek & Viktoriia Semenova & Damla Bal & Gábor Michalkó, 2022. "Addressing the Phenomenon of Overtourism in Budapest from Multiple Angles Using Unconventional Methodologies and Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-19, February.
    4. Rova, Silvia & Stocco, Alice & Pranovi, Fabio, 2023. "Sustainability threshold for multiple ecosystem services in the Venice lagoon, Italy," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
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    7. Mota Luís & Franco Mara & Santos Rossana, 2021. "Social Carrying Capacity in Island Destinations: Interpreting Visitors’ Opinions in Madeira Island," European Journal of Tourism, Hospitality and Recreation, Sciendo, vol. 11(2), pages 253-266, December.
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    10. Nikolaos Skarakis & Georgia Skiniti & Stavroula Tournaki & Theocharis Tsoutsos, 2023. "Necessity to Assess the Sustainability of Sensitive Ecosystems: A Comprehensive Review of Tourism Pressures and the Travel Cost Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-18, August.
    11. Zoltán Kovács & György Vida & Ábel Elekes & Tamás Kovalcsik, 2021. "Combining Social Media and Mobile Positioning Data in the Analysis of Tourist Flows: A Case Study from Szeged, Hungary," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-15, March.
    12. Katrine Soma & Peter Verweij & Elesiër Angel & María A. Naranjo, 2022. "Inclusiveness in the Caribbean-Locals’ Perceptions about Nature, Tourism and Recreation in Bonaire," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-21, October.
    13. Maximilian Benner, 2020. "The Decline of Tourist Destinations: An Evolutionary Perspective on Overtourism," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-14, May.
    14. Mandeep Mahendru & Vibha Arora & Ravi Chatterjee & Gagan Deep Sharma & Irum Shahzadi, 2024. "From Over-Tourism to Under-Tourism via COVID-19: Lessons for Sustainable Tourism Management," Evaluation Review, , vol. 48(1), pages 177-210, February.
    15. Silvia González-Morcillo & Patricia Horrach-Rosselló & Oscar Valero-Sierra & Carles Mulet-Forteza, 2023. "Forgotten effects of active tourism activities in Spain on sustainable development dimensions," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(10), pages 10743-10763, October.
    16. Manuel de la Calle-Vaquero & María García-Hernández & Sofía Mendoza de Miguel, 2020. "Urban Planning Regulations for Tourism in the Context of Overtourism. Applications in Historic Centres," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-22, December.
    17. Emil Drápela, 2023. "Creating Strategies to Mitigate the Adverse Effects of Overtourism in Rural Destinations: Experience from the Czech Republic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-18, December.
    18. Zamru Ajuhari & Azlizam Aziz & Sam Shor Nahar Yaakob & Shamsul Abu Bakar & Manohar Mariapan, 2023. "Systematic Literature Review on Methods of Assessing Carrying Capacity in Recreation and Tourism Destinations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, February.
    19. da Mosto, Jane & Bertolini, Camilla & Markandya, Anil & Nunes, Paulo A.L.D. & Spencer, Tom & Palaima, Arnas & Onofri, Laura, 2020. "Rethinking Venice from an Ecosystem Services Perspective," FACTS: Firms And Cities Towards Sustainability 308019, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) > FACTS: Firms And Cities Towards Sustainability.
    20. Teresa Santos & Filipa Ramalhete, 2024. "Urban Transformation: Analyzing the Combined Forces of Vacant Building Occupancy and Socio-Economic Dynamics," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-19, May.
    21. Sophia Arbara & Roberto D’Autilia, 2021. "A Population Game Model for the Expansion of Airbnb in the City of Venice," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-15, March.
    22. José Fernandes & Pedro Chamusca & Rubén Lois & Helena Madureira & Juliano Mattos & Jorge Pinto, 2024. "Tourism-Led Change of the City Centre," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, January.
    23. Monika Widz & Teresa Brzezińska-Wójcik, 2020. "Assessment of the Overtourism Phenomenon Risk in Tunisia in Relation to the Tourism Area Life Cycle Concept," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-13, March.
    24. Stefano Della Torre & Mehrnaz Rajabi, 2022. "The Restoration of St. James’s Church in Como and the Cathedral Museum as Agents for Sustainable Urban Planning Strategies," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-15, March.
    25. Silvio Cristiano & Francesco Gonella, 2020. "‘Kill Venice’: a systems thinking conceptualisation of urban life, economy, and resilience in tourist cities," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 7(1), pages 1-13, December.

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