IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v17y2025i3p917-d1574525.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Construction Cost Index: Political, Economic, and Financial Risk Indices Within the European Continent

Author

Listed:
  • Yılmaz Amca

    (Faculty of Business and Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta 99628, Turkey)

  • Vedat Yorucu

    (Faculty of Business and Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta 99628, Turkey)

  • Derviş Kırıkkaleli

    (Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, European University of Lefke, Beirut 1102 2801, Lebanon)

Abstract

The global construction industry has encountered record growth, especially following the COVID-19 pandemic period, during which the construction industry almost entirely ceased. However, the prices of building materials used by the construction sector have increased rapidly since the COVID-19 pandemic due to interruptions in the supply chain, causing increases in interest rates, inflation rates, and wage rates, as well as changes in tax rates. This has resulted in a contraction of construction activities in the euro area that warrants investigation. The purpose of this study was to empirically evaluate the impacts of political, economic, and financial risks on the cost of construction materials, which have caused a recession in the European economy. In this study, an empirical examination of the long-term equilibrium relationship between the construction cost index and various risk indices associated with politics, economics, and finance across Europe was conducted. This study also explored the construction-led growth hypothesis in the eurozone. Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLSs) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLSs) panel estimation techniques were employed here. The panel regression results were obtained using the FMOLS technique and provided statistically significant elasticity coefficients. The results revealed that the economic risk index was statistically significant at 1% with an elasticity coefficient of 0.242, whereas both the political risk index and the financial risk index had elasticity coefficients of 0.231 and 0.228 at the 10% significance level, respectively. The results of this study are robust and provide strong empirical evidence that these risk factors have negative impacts on the construction cost index within the EU area, which is in agreement with the related literature. The results of the DOLS estimation methodology were significant only at the 10% significance interval for financial and economic risk parameters, with elasticity values of 0.244 and 0.183, respectively. Moreover, the results of the Dumitrescu–Hurlin Panel Causality Test determined a significant bidirectional causal relationship between the construction cost index and the financial, economic, and political risk indices in Europe. This study ultimately validates the construction-led growth hypothesis for European nations.

Suggested Citation

  • Yılmaz Amca & Vedat Yorucu & Derviş Kırıkkaleli, 2025. "Construction Cost Index: Political, Economic, and Financial Risk Indices Within the European Continent," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-20, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:3:p:917-:d:1574525
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/3/917/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/3/917/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Strassmann, W Paul, 1970. "The Construction Sector in Economic Development," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 17(3), pages 391-409, November.
    2. Anindya Banerjee, 1999. "Panel Data Unit Roots and Cointegration: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 607-629, November.
    3. Gunnar Bårdsen & Kjersti-Gro Lindquist & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2012. "Evaluation of Macroeconomic Models for Financial Stability Analysis," Chapters, in: The Challenge of Financial Stability, chapter 3, pages 32-58, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema, 2005. "Estimating income and price elasticities of imports for Fiji in a cointegration framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 423-438, May.
    5. Dora Almeida & Andreia Dionísio & Muhammad Enamul Haque & Paulo Ferreira, 2022. "A Giant Falls: The Impact of Evergrande on Asian Stock Indexes," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-14, July.
    6. Montalvo, Jose G., 1995. "Comparing cointegrating regression estimators: Some additional Monte Carlo results," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(3-4), pages 229-234, June.
    7. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    8. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    9. Bianca Biagi & Maria G. Brandano & Dionysia Lambiri, 2015. "Does Tourism Affect House Prices? Evidence from Italy," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 501-528, September.
    10. Les Ruddock & Jorge Lopes, 2006. "The construction sector and economic development: the 'Bon curve'," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(7), pages 717-723.
    11. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    12. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:607-29 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:653-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Maeso-Fernandez, Francisco & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2006. "Towards the estimation of equilibrium exchange rates for transition economies: Methodological issues and a panel cointegration perspective," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 499-517, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dierk Herzer & Holger Strulik & Sebastian Vollmer, 2012. "The long-run determinants of fertility: one century of demographic change 1900–1999," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 357-385, December.
    2. Bangake, Chrysost & Eggoh, Jude C., 2011. "Further evidence on finance-growth causality: A panel data analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 176-188, June.
    3. Francesco Venturini, 2009. "The long-run impact of ICT," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 497-515, December.
    4. Ian Babetskii & Balázs Égert, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rate in the Czech Republic: How Good is the Czech BEER?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 55(5-6), pages 232-252, May.
    5. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau, 2005. "Budget and Current Account Deficits in SEACEN Countries: Evidence Based on the Panel Approach," International Finance 0504002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Rajesh Sharma & Samaresh Bardhan, 2017. "Finance growth nexus across Indian states: evidences from panel cointegration and causality tests," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 1-20, February.
    7. Coe, David T. & Helpman, Elhanan & Hoffmaister, Alexander W., 2009. "International R&D spillovers and institutions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 723-741, October.
    8. Sam Jones, 2011. "Aid Supplies Over Time: Accounting for Heterogeneity, Trends and Dynamics," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2011-004, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Aysel Amir & Korhan Gökmenoğlu, 2023. "Analyzing the Drivers of the Shadow Economy for the Case of the CESEE Region," Journal of Economics / Ekonomicky casopis, Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, vol. 71(2), pages 155-181, February.
    10. Balázs Égert & Kirsten Lommatzsch, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the Transition: The Tradable Price-Based Real Appreciation and Estimation Uncertainty," Springer Books, in: Paul J.J. Welfens & Anna Wziątek-Kubiak (ed.), Structural Change and Exchange Rate Dynamics, pages 205-239, Springer.
    11. Rajbhandari, Ashish & Zhang, Fan, 2018. "Does energy efficiency promote economic growth? Evidence from a multicountry and multisectoral panel dataset," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 128-139.
    12. Liu, Xuyi & Zhang, Shun & Bae, Junghan, 2017. "The nexus of renewable energy-agriculture-environment in BRICS," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 489-496.
    13. Sam Jones, 2011. "Aid Supplies Over Time Accounting for Heterogeneity, Trends, and Dynamics," WIDER Working Paper Series 004, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    14. Skare, Marinko & Ozturk, Ilhan & Porada-Rochoń, Małgorzata & Stjepanovic, Sasa, 2024. "Energy as the new frontier: Dynamic panel data analysis revealing energy's transformative role in economic growth and technological progress," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    15. Tarkan Cavusoglu & Oguzhan Dincer, 2015. "Does decentralization reduce income inequality? Only in rich states," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 82(1), pages 285-306, July.
    16. Gazi Hassan & Arusha Cooray & Mark Holmes, 2017. "The effect of female and male health on economic growth: cross-country evidence within a production function framework," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 659-689, March.
    17. Atilla Çifter, 2015. "Bank concentration and non-performing loans in Central and Eastern European countries," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 117-137, February.
    18. Geldi, Hatice Kerra, 2012. "Trade effects of regional integration: A panel cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1566-1570.
    19. Akhmat, Ghulam & Zaman, Khalid & Shukui, Tan & Javed, Yasir & Khan, Muhammad Mushtaq, 2014. "Relationship between educational indicators and research outcomes in a panel of top twenty nations: Windows of opportunity," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 349-361.
    20. Mariam Camarero & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann & Cecilio Tamarit, 2016. "Trade Openness and Income: A Tale of Two Regions," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(3), pages 386-408, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:3:p:917-:d:1574525. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.