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Uncertainty Estimation in the Modeling of a Flood Wave Caused by a Dam Failure in a Hydropower System with Pumped Hydro Energy Storage

Author

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  • Jūratė Kriaučiūnienė

    (Laboratory of Hydrology, Lithuanian Energy Institute, Breslaujos St. 3, LT-44403 Kaunas, Lithuania)

  • Diana Šarauskienė

    (Laboratory of Hydrology, Lithuanian Energy Institute, Breslaujos St. 3, LT-44403 Kaunas, Lithuania)

Abstract

Future global sustainability depends heavily on the development of renewable energy. The object of this study is a system of two plants (Kaunas hydropower plant (HP) and Kruonis pumped-storage hydropower plant) and upper and lower reservoirs. A possible dam failure accident in such an important system can endanger the population of Kaunas City. The methodology for estimating dam-failure-induced flood wave uncertainty included scenarios of the upper reservoir embankment failure hydrographs, modeling flood wave spreading (MIKE 21 hydrodynamic model), and estimating wave heights. The GRS methodology was selected to assess the uncertainty of flood wave modeling results and the sensitivity of hydrodynamic model parameters. The findings revealed that the discharge values of the Nemunas inflow and outflow through the HP outlets are the most important parameters determining the greatest height of the flood wave. Therefore, by correctly managing the amount of water in the upper reservoir, it would be possible to prevent the lower reservoir dam from breaking.

Suggested Citation

  • Jūratė Kriaučiūnienė & Diana Šarauskienė, 2024. "Uncertainty Estimation in the Modeling of a Flood Wave Caused by a Dam Failure in a Hydropower System with Pumped Hydro Energy Storage," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-18, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:9:p:3528-:d:1381165
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Miryam Naddaf, 2023. "Ukraine dam collapse: what scientists are watching," Nature, Nature, vol. 618(7965), pages 440-441, June.
    2. Hui Hu & Jianfeng Zhang & Tao Li & Jie Yang, 2020. "A simplified mathematical model for the dam-breach hydrograph for three reservoir geometries following a sudden full dam break," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(3), pages 1515-1540, July.
    3. Delenne, C. & Cappelaere, B. & Guinot, V., 2012. "Uncertainty analysis of river flooding and dam failure risks using local sensitivity computations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 171-183.
    4. Marina Kaneti, 2020. "Dams, neoliberalism, and rights: Mainstreaming environmental justice claims," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 424-434, March.
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